What Happened to My Twins?
Posted 04 May 2012 - 10:15 AM
Posted 04 May 2012 - 10:44 AM
Posted 04 May 2012 - 11:14 AM
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
Posted 04 May 2012 - 11:28 AM
Posted 04 May 2012 - 01:09 PM
Good stuff. Every point there is valid.
I got a chuckle out of that because as I was reading I was thinking that almost every point was at least a little bit sketchy. Funny how the same thing can get opposite responses in different subjects.
The combination of the complaint about the Young/Garza trade with the complaint about not making a "get over the hump" move seems a bit conflictual. AT THE TIME the Twins were trading from a perceived position of depth to gain something they badly needed. The MAKE A TRADE point also feels a little sloppy when one thinks of Ramos-Capps, which was essentially that same attempt. Maybe not a good one, but that's my point here. The article suggests taking chances just like that.
As for the Grienke trade, I don't know that the Twins farm depth was what it needed to be to get that particular one done, nor another comparable. Maybe it could have been done, but it sure seems like a good way to get people screaming in a few years about how there's nothing on the farm to compete with. I just get a little skeptical of "why didn't we do this move?" stuff like we hear all the time. The other example of this (although not from this article) is the frequent calls for all the players we could have had for Santana from people who don't really know what offers were made or counter-made or what.
Another flag went up when I heard the oft-repeated "Who has improved under Anderson?" questioning. I started just poking around as names came to me and almost everyone has some and some lots. Scott Baker steadily improved. Joe Nathan obviously took huge strides here compared to before he got here, and even for several years after the trade before plateauing and then falling back a small amount. Pavano's first full year with the Twins was near the best of his career. Swarzak 2011 was way, way better than Swarzak 2010. Jon Rauch is interesting because he's played a lot of places, and his second best best FIP (and second best xFIP) was his one full season with the Twins. Duensing 2010 was much better than Duensing 2009 (Duensing 2011 got thrown into the rotation and he regressed...I'd say that's not a great comparison because of having to face all the righties he struggled against, and he's rebounded in the early going this year). Even Blackburn's improved on some peripheral stuff. From the counter-example pile, I went to the two most common that I see. Kyle Lohse in his first full year post-Twins was almost exactly the same as he was his last full year with Twins. Then he had a much improved season before going three more years almost exactly as he had with the Twins including a huge stinker in 2010 before having another very good year five years after leaving the team. Matt Garza showed great improvement from his first year with Twins to the second. Then he was pretty much that same pitcher for three years in Tampa before popping up a level in 2011 four years after leaving. Obviously those are all anecdotal, but finding more general results seems like a bigger project. And those aren't cherry-picked, that's every one I looked at.
Edited by CDog, 04 May 2012 - 01:14 PM.
Posted 04 May 2012 - 02:45 PM
And just to be clear...No, I don't think all is right with the world in Twins Territory. I have the same question as the article's title. I don't know the answer, and I don't think the article helped me to find it.
He also kind of lost me by saying we "may" have seen Mauer's best career season already. Gee, leading the league in On Base Percentage and Slugging simultaneously, as a catcher? Ya think?
On the 13th day of Christmas, my True Love got from me: a restraining order.
Posted 04 May 2012 - 03:00 PM
Posted 04 May 2012 - 04:28 PM
Posted 04 May 2012 - 04:44 PM
Posted 04 May 2012 - 09:21 PM
Posted 05 May 2012 - 12:44 AM
Posted 05 May 2012 - 02:24 PM
Sometimes stuff just happens. Maybe it was a big mistake to rely on Liriano and Baker as the top pitchers in the rotation, but one can about imagine how things around here would be if the Twins traded 3 top 10 prospects for some ace pitcher and then that ace pitcher has to have TJ surgery or something. One cannot complain about a "poor" farm system and then also demand to trade prospects away.
The only trade that was truly abysmal at the time was the Ramos-Capps trade. The Young-Garza trade was made at a time when the Twins looked like they truly had some starting pitching depth and needed a good-great RH bat. Delmon Young was highly regarded. Maybe the Twins should trade Arcia and Morales for pitching, but if Joe Benson and Aaron Hicks then develop persistent injuries that seriously limit playing time, one can't look back and say that the team shouldn't have traded from a position of depth.
Talking about wanting trades is stupid. We don't know much about what actually goes on, what is actually offered, etc.
The things about trades are this... If someone is willing to trade someone to you... THERE IS SOMETHING WRONG WITH HIM.
The Delmon Young trade was an over reaction trade by a young GM.
In 2008 everyone was screaming for Power and offense because it was lacking the year prior.
Morneau and Hunter were the only power sources in 2007. Hunter was looking for a long deal and heading out of town. Cuddyer and Kubel parked 16 and 13 homers respectively. With Hunter leaving we had 3 guys in double digits.
Gardy didn't like Garza(I have no personal knowledge just read that a couple of times) so the Young GM Bill Smith made a deal for Delmon Young who the Rays were willing to part with because he was an extreme attitude problem and they wanted to cash him in when the right deal came along. There was something wrong with Garza so we traded him for Young... Who the Rays had a problem with.
Garza was then traded to the Cubs for a boatload of prospects... The Rays could have traded any of their pitchers and may have got more prospects... Something was still wrong with Garza... What was wrong with those Cubs Prospects... They were too YOUNG.
Delmon Young was traded for Lester Oliveros. God I hope Oliveros becomes something... Anything. Cuz Oliveros cost us Garza and Bartlett and boy do we need starting pitching and a shortstop right now.
Posted 05 May 2012 - 02:59 PM
Jason Bartlett had one truly good season after that trade (it was a great season, actually).
Oliveros may be more valuable per dollar than Delmon by next year.
About Bartlett... I know... I'm just saying.
I hope you are right about Oliveros... But let me ask you this... Would you rather have Oliveros OR... Chris Archer, Hak Ju Lee, Brandon Guyer, Sam Fuld and Robinson Chirinos.
Trades only happen because there is something wrong with the player(s) being traded. Those Cubs Prospects were too young to contribute therefore available. Superstars are available only when they are about to become too expensive or getting ready to leave. Young talented players in the majors like Delmon are only available if they are bad attitudes.
If you want to build your team via the trade... The only strategy that works is to trade for the flawed young player who might develop into something. The other guys without flaws are not available for trade.
Bill Smith got his butt handed to him by a (at the time) 30 year old ex investment banker named Friedman.
Edited by Riverbrian, 05 May 2012 - 03:05 PM.