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Love seeing Arcia come alive. However...

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#21 TheLeviathan

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 05:27 AM

Just hate those grand slams and three-run homers.

Seriously? Do you guys know what you're even talking about here? He's homered in two consecutive games and has eight RBIs in those games. Have we run out of problems to talk about? How about Correia?

And he's been back from injury, what? 10 days. What are rate stats in 40 PAs? It's ridiculous. Give him a year or more before you start worrying about K/BB. And realize the K/BB is high for guys who swing violently enough to hit 40 HRs in a year, which he would do if you projected his current pace out over a full season.

OK. I get it now. Silly me. You'll are joking. Cause he's the last person to worry about. Am I right? Even after he gets picked off of second after breaking lights on the scoreboard.


Strawman = dead.

#22 cmathewson

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 07:34 AM

Is there one person that has expressed one shred of dismay at Arcia returning with a resounding bang, apparently fully healthy, projecting his energy and enthusiasm for the game.... and simply just getting out there and doing his thing? I think whatever caution being expressed by most is "cautionary" in the sense that it's not sustainable without Arcia continuing to mature as a hitter.

There are 4 qualified players since 2010 with K% rates over 30%:

Chris Carter
Adam Dunn
Mark Reynolds
Jerrod Saltalamachia

All but Salty have BB% rates of 12-14% (Salty is just under 9%).

Arcia in 400+ PAs is at just under a 31% K-rate and a 5.5% BB-rate- so he's not even yet matching these 4 obviously very-flawed players. These numbers will have to improve and I'm confident he will do so- Arcia is a guy that clearly has "it", like Kirby did back in the day- I can see him being a Top-Five MVP voted guy in a year or two or three- even his defense looks improved since March/April. Nothing wrong in pointing out areas for improvement, even when he's taking the Twins by storm.


This is the gist of my point. It's early. He reminds me of a young Tony O. Tony never walked much, but he got more disciplined over time.
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#23 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 07:42 AM

Just hate those grand slams and three-run homers.

Seriously? Do you guys know what you're even talking about here? He's homered in two consecutive games and has eight RBIs in those games. Have we run out of problems to talk about? How about Correia?

And he's been back from injury, what? 10 days. What are rate stats in 40 PAs? It's ridiculous. Give him a year or more before you start worrying about K/BB. And realize the K/BB is high for guys who swing violently enough to hit 40 HRs in a year, which he would do if you projected his current pace out over a full season.

OK. I get it now. Silly me. You'll are joking. Cause he's the last person to worry about. Am I right? Even after he gets picked off of second after breaking lights on the scoreboard.


Apparently you have forgotten what happened last year. We all love seeing this level of productivity. That is why there is some concern that Arcia is still demonstrating very little discipline. Other teams take notice of this type of ability too and they are going to adjust. Arcia is not going to see many pitches in the strike zone if he keeps this up. Any fastball in the strike zone is going to be up where he has shown he can't hit.

#24 drivlikejehu

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 07:57 AM

There's no way around the fact that plate discipline has been an issue for him in the Majors so far. I've long been a big Arcia fan and think he will figure it out, but objectively it is a red flag.

#25 cmathewson

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:04 AM

Red flag or no, it's hard to walk much when you are hitting the ball so often and so hard. I'm sure they will start pitching around him, and he'll need to adjust. But he shouldn't adjust until he needs to. As to the Ks, he's always struck out a lot. Comes with the territory.
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#26 cmathewson

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:06 AM

One other thing: Lots of people complain that Hicks is walking too much and is too passive. The same people complain that Arcia is is not walking enough and is too aggressive. You know who you are (and you are not straw men).
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#27 TheLeviathan

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:07 AM

I haven't heard a single complaint about Hicks walking too much. His inability to make solid contact? Sure...those two things are not even remotely the same.

#28 UCLA_YANKEE_COLA

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:14 AM

This is the gist of my point. It's early. He reminds me of a young Tony O. Tony never walked much, but he got more disciplined over time.


Neither of them walk much but other than that I don't see much Oliva in his game. I love Arcia but there are some real concerns. He's very hot right now but the all or nothing approach doesn't work for most players. Unless he starts hitting .300-.320 he needs to find some patience. Yeeeeahhh. Just a little patience.

#29 kdrupp09

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:16 AM

I will take a low walk rate if we get to see the massive homeruns he is hitting. The one Wednesday night was huge, but the grand slam last night was one of the longest home runs I have seen at Target Field. To borrow from Bremer, it was Thome territory last night.

#30 JB_Iowa

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:16 AM

He's 23 years old and came up pretty quickly. Give him a little more time to work on recognizing pitches outside the zone and to developing plate discipline. It isn't something I would expect to come all at once.

#31 jorgenswest

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:23 AM

Arcia high strike out rate combines with low walk rates will lead to more inconsistent play. His walk rate will improve and the Twins and Gardenhire will need to be patient through the slumps.

I am not as sure about the Oliva comparison. I don't remember him swinging at many pitches outside of the strike zone. He didn't walk or strike out much. His strike out rates were just below 10% his first two years. He didn't need to see many pitches before he barreled up on the ball. His rates were low because he put the ball in play before he got to three strikes or four balls.

#32 Mike Sixel

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:23 AM

Recently read on one of the sites expressing concern over his all or nothing approach, that pitchers will eventually figure out not to make mistakes to him (easier said than done, btw). Sure, he needs to figure out the zone more, but sure, it is fun to watch him hit HRs and doubles. I'll take more aggression over less aggression every day......

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#33 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:23 AM

One other thing: Lots of people complain that Hicks is walking too much and is too passive. The same people complain that Arcia is is not walking enough and is too aggressive.


There's no reason both can't be true. Arcia is on the far end of the aggressive scale and Hicks is on the far end of the passive scale.

#34 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:24 AM

I'll take more aggression over less aggression every day......


I won't. I'll take productive aggression but there are lots of guys who are unproductively aggressive.

#35 Lefty

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:27 AM

Couldn't agree more. Keep bashing that ball off of or over the wall and I could care less about his on base percentage. Fact is, the guys that are getting on base in front of him better have their running shoes, or trotting shoes on because they're probably going to score.

I love the swagger too. This team needs a leader and an identity and I think he's a guy that can give this team a little bit of an attitude.

#36 TheLeviathan

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:29 AM

We all want Arcia to be the best he can possibly be, I think that's the source of the criticism. We also saw him do many of these same things early on last year and then he suffered after the league adjusted to him.

We just have to hope his coaches are helping him anticipate those adjustments already and see where we go from here. Right now it's great to see him crushing the ball around - he just looks like the middle of the order mainstay his potential suggested last year.

#37 drivlikejehu

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:31 AM

Red flag or no, it's hard to walk much when you are hitting the ball so often and so hard. I'm sure they will start pitching around him, and he'll need to adjust. But he shouldn't adjust until he needs to. As to the Ks, he's always struck out a lot. Comes with the territory.


The top 16 MLB players in walk rate last year all hit 20+ home runs. Number 17 was Mauer.

Hitting the ball hard and walks go together. Pitchers are more reluctant to throw strikes, thus the hitter takes more walks.

So far, Arcia is getting away with swinging at everything. It won't last. He either will take more walks or his production will decrease dramatically.

#38 cmathewson

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:31 AM

Arcia high strike out rate combines with low walk rates will lead to more inconsistent play. His walk rate will improve and the Twins and Gardenhire will need to be patient through the slumps.

I am not as sure about the Oliva comparison. I don't remember him swinging at many pitches outside of the strike zone. He didn't walk or strike out much. His strike out rates were just below 10% his first two years. He didn't need to see many pitches before he barreled up on the ball. His rates were low because he put the ball in play before he got to three strikes or four balls.


Oliva was a notorious bad ball hitter, like Puckett. Neither struck out that much, though.
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#39 Lefty

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:33 AM

The single was more impressive than the home run. Despite being out front, he was able to keep his hands back and make solid contact. It also appears like he is recognizing the breaking ball better and laying off it. I will take the sacrifice flies, scorching doubles, homers and the strikeouts.


Come on! Someone get The Common Man on the phone today and get this in the PST. I'll take a 450 ft grand slam ANY DAY over an ugly single.

#40 cmathewson

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:34 AM

The top 16 MLB players in walk rate last year all hit 20+ home runs. Number 17 was Mauer.

Hitting the ball hard and walks go together. Pitchers are more reluctant to throw strikes, thus the hitter takes more walks.

So far, Arcia is getting away with swinging at everything. It won't last. He either will take more walks or his production will decrease dramatically.


I would say the disjunction is more like a conditional. If his production starts to fall, he will need to walk more. If pitchers keep throwing him meatballs, he shouldn't be taking them in order to increase his walk rate. When they start pitching around him, he will need to lay off those pitches and take more walks.
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