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This team is going to win 85 games.

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#1 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:03 PM

Baring a huge run of injuries I think this team wins at least 85 games and sniffs the playoffs.

Why?
May and/or Meyer coming up is going to make this a rather solid rotation. Hughes is pitching like an ACE, Nolasco has been getting unlucky and should pitch like a number two the rest of the way, DeDuno keeps doing what he does and has solidified himself in being a nice back end of the rotation type guy. Gibson is coming along nicely as well and is showing some flashes.

-Willingham is finally healthy and is hitting like a beast.

-Dozier is only getting better and better.

-Other than Escobar and Kurt there aren't really that many regression candidates on this squad.

-Mauer and Arcia are both going to come on very strong and will end their seasons with 120 OPS+
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#2 adjacent

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:21 PM

I have some optimism, not for the reasons that you state, but for the schedule. The first half of the Twins schedule is really tough, including the next couple of weeks that includes a road trip with series against Boston, Detroit and Toronto (traditionally tough for the Twins and leading the AL East right now). After that it becomes a little bit easier, with a lot more home games and more intra-division games. If the next couple of week are not a total disaster, I am kind of optimistic.

#3 Tibs

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:22 PM

If the offense performs, I think we could make a run. I don't think the other teams in the Central are good besides Detroit, and they went through a bad stretch recently. We have pitchers in the minors that could come up and contribute. It's possible. We'll see what happens.
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#4 Halsey Hall

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:27 PM

That would top my pre-season prediction by 20 games, but it's possible. And it's possible without and rotation changes. Bring up both Meyer and May and it becomes more iffy.

I'm not so sure about Mauer. The SI article on Morneau sheds a lot of light on the concussion subject. I think Joe still has some lingering effects that may take a lot of time to fade away.

But, it's been a season thus far that has been much more enjoyable to watch, and stay on the channel for more than 4 or 5 innings.

#5 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:30 PM

A couple issues with your plan. If Meyer and May come up and perform, there's not room for Hughes, Nolasco, Deduno and Gibson to all keep pitching in the rotation. And I think it's unreasonable to expect Meyer/May to come up and just keep putting up great numbers. There's a learning curve, and with the number of batters May is walking at AAA, I don't expect his numbers to translate as well as Meyer's.

I love the optomism, but I think 75 wins is a good number to hope for. 80 wins would be mind-boggling. 85? That just seems ludacris.

I hope you're right and I'm way way way too conservative. That'd be a lot of fun to watch down the stretch.

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#6 drivlikejehu

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:37 PM

I guess next is the prediction they win the World Series this year?

#7 spycake

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:38 PM

Dozier is only getting better and better.


I like me some Dozier, but OPS-wise, he's basically the same this year as the final 4 months of 2013.

I think your take on the rotation is a little optimistic too. Hughes should be a candidate for some regression; Gibson too with his peripherals. Nolasco and his career 94 ERA+ entering the season is hardly a lock for #2 type performance. I'm excited for Meyer and May too, but neither is a can't-miss type guy (especially May) and there could easily be a season-plus transitional period, like Gibson, Baker, Lohse, etc. (Plus the Twins have had some real trouble transitioning starting pitchers to MLB recently.)

I think if they can keep up their current pace (just under .500) for the rest of the season, despite whatever regression or injuries happen, it will be an achievement (and a welcome change from the past 3 years finishes).

#8 spycake

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:44 PM

85? That just seems ludacris.


So 85 wins triggers a Ludacris concert at Target Field?

#9 Beezer07

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:46 PM

This thread confirms it: You people are no fun!

EDIT: Except Spy.

#10 Tibs

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:49 PM

I guess next is the prediction they win the World Series this year?


Yep. I'll start the thread.
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#11 JB_Iowa

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:52 PM

Yep. I'll start the thread.


There's probably an old one somewhere you could just dig up.

#12 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:53 PM

I don't see them winning more than 84 games.

#13 D. Hocking

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 04:07 PM

I guess next is the prediction they win the World Series this year?


1987, 1991, and 2014 World Champs!

I think hovering around .500 is not out the range of possibility. It is too bad Sano had the TJ, or we could be talking about how he is raking and the bump we will get when he comes up in the second half of the year.

Edited by D. Hocking, 04 June 2014 - 04:16 PM.
No reading comprehension skills.


#14 LaBombo

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 04:33 PM

On pace for 78 wins, 76 if you pythag it. Sounds about right. That's about 10 fewer losses than 2013, and a team that's in ball games noticeably more often than the 90+loss clubs,

Moreover it's about what you'd expect from a team that brought in a pair of #3-ish starters to replace bad pitchers, but not much else, and has a balance that slightly favors players likely to improve as compared to those likely to decline or regress.

It's also encouraging in light of the loss of value from Mauer with the move to first and his struggles at the plate.

#15 CRArko

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 04:35 PM

I don't see them winning more than 84 games.


83.75, give or take.
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#16 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 04:45 PM

So 85 wins triggers a Ludacris concert at Target Field?


I just confirmed with the Twins PR people, yes, if the Twins win 85 games, Luda will be performing this winter at Target Field.

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#17 D. Hocking

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 04:50 PM

I just confirmed with the Twins PR people, yes, if the Twins win 85 games, Luda will be performing this winter at Target Field.


I would have thought they would have tried to get him this October during our World Series run.

#18 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 04:53 PM

I would have thought they would have tried to get him this October during our World Series run.


Maybe they can get him to sing during the 7th inning stretch of game 1 of the WS, with a concert to follow the game.

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#19 CRArko

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 04:54 PM

I would have thought they would have tried to get him this October during our World Series run.


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#20 Thrylos

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 05:48 PM

Baring a huge run of injuries I think this team wins at least 85 games and sniffs the playoffs.

Why?
May and/or Meyer coming up is going to make this a rather solid rotation. Hughes is pitching like an ACE, Nolasco has been getting unlucky and should pitch like a number two the rest of the way, DeDuno keeps doing what he does and has solidified himself in being a nice back end of the rotation type guy. Gibson is coming along nicely as well and is showing some flashes.

-Willingham is finally healthy and is hitting like a beast.

-Dozier is only getting better and better.

-Other than Escobar and Kurt there aren't really that many regression candidates on this squad.

-Mauer and Arcia are both going to come on very strong and will end their seasons with 120 OPS+


Ok. I'll bite.

So if they don't win 85, are you ready to join the Fire Gardy and Fire Terry bandwagon? Got to be their fault, according to your analysis, no?
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