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Official 2014 Draft Day Thread, Day 1

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#21 Willihammer

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 09:11 AM

It was interesting to hear Terry Ryan talk about drafting commodities earlier this week. He mentioned lefthanded pitching, and there's no doubt good lefthanders are valuable. But, I also think you have to take what's given to you. The strength of this draft still seems to be high school pitching. Maybe the best course of action is to play to the pool's strength, and take the best high school arm available at 5, rather than targeting specific profiles. They would probably have their choice of everyone except Brady Aiken. But, the others are all righthanded.

Edited by Willihammer, 05 June 2014 - 09:14 AM.


#22 tobi0040

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 09:18 AM

, I think that only applies if you believe he has ace potential. If his "ceiling" is 2/3 starter, which some have said about Nola, why can't you just as easily get that type of guy at pick 10-20 (although probably with lower floor than Nola)?


I think Touki and Newcomb, specifically have features that could make them #1 starters.

Totally agree about Nola. You also have free agency. We signed two guys in the 2-3 mold last off-season alone.

#23 twinkiesfan11

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 09:25 AM

Remember Tim Beckham?

How does his high school stats compare to Nick Gordon? Just curious what the scouting reports were because he looks like a big flop from a good drafting organization.


And if I had 20 minutes to do the research I could name probably at least a dozen or two high school and college pitchers that were drafted in the top 5 and flopped. Not really sure what your point is...

#24 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 09:27 AM

yeah, I kind of hope someone takes Nola and Gordon in the 1-4 slots, but I suspect both will be there. I'm hoping they take one of Kolek, Touki, or Newcomb. In round 2, I'd grab a high ceiling prep arm or Hoffman/Fede/Gatewood if one of them really falls.

#25 InfraRen

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 09:32 AM

Keith Law's final mock is out. Has Twins taking Gordon:
[FONT=Verdana]
http://a.espncdn.com...ransparent=true
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[FONT=Verdana]Analysis: This is the lock of the draft. Unless Brady Aiken gets here, which he won't, they're taking Gordon. | Scouting video Posted Image

PLAYER CARD


[/FONT]
Till I Collapse

#26 gunnarthor

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 09:34 AM

Best rumor of the day - Manual at BA: "[FONT=Helvetica Neue]One scouting source in the top 10 believed both San Diego prep players, Aiken and Rancho Bernardo’s Alex Jackson, were falling to the back of the top 10 due to signability questions." If Aiken was there at #5 ... Anyway, Manual's mock has us taking Gordon.

[/FONT]
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-5-0-aiken-looks-like-no-1/

#27 twinsfanstreif

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 09:35 AM

Remember Tim Beckham?

How does his high school stats compare to Nick Gordon? Just curious what the scouting reports were because he looks like a big flop from a good drafting organization.


http://www.milb.com/...jsp?mc=tbeckham this is his scouting report, it sounds a ton like Gordon to me, that scares me a ton. What makes me feel a little better is that Correa had similar reports

#28 tobi0040

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 09:37 AM

Best rumor of the day - Manual at BA: "[FONT=Helvetica Neue]One scouting source in the top 10 believed both San Diego prep players, Aiken and Rancho Bernardo’s Alex Jackson, were falling to the back of the top 10 due to signability questions." If Aiken was there at #5 ... Anyway, Manual's mock has us taking Gordon.

[/FONT]
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-5-0-aiken-looks-like-no-1/


Beware of the last minute rumor. Could have been started by anyone at 3-8 hoping to get lucky.

#29 gunnarthor

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 09:41 AM

Callis last mock has no surprises - Twins take Gordon (but would love Rodon or Aiken to fall)
http://mlb.mlb.com/n...0&vkey=news_mlb

#30 nicksaviking

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 09:43 AM

Humor me but I this is a list of who I think may be Twins targets.

If available in round 2:
AJ Reed 1B/RHP KY
Jake Stinett RHP MD
Cameraon Varga RHP HS (OH)
Ti'quan Forbes SS HS (MS)
Jacob Gatewood HS (CA) (duh)
Brian Anderson 2B/OF AR
Nick Burdi RHP Louisville

Later:
Cole Tucker SS HS (AZ); Ryan Castellani RHP HS (AZ); Gunner Heidt SS C of C (SC); Grayson Greiner C SC; Jordan Montgomery LHP SC; Andrew Chin LHP BC; Mitch Keller RHP HS (IA); Max Povse RHP UNC Greensboro; John Little OF HS (OK); Austin Cousino OF KY; Jordan Schwartz RHP Niagra; Spencer Turnbull RHP ALA; Matt Morgan C ALA; Chris Oliver RHP AR; Brian O'Keefe C St Joe's; Bradley Roney RHP S Miss; JD Davis 1B Cal St Fullerton

#31 2wins87

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 09:44 AM

The strength of this draft still seems to be high school pitching. Maybe the best course of action is to play to the pool's strength, and take the best high school arm available at 5, rather than targeting specific profiles.


Later in the draft where you have less clear distinctions between players this might make sense. But you can be sure the front office will have a clear preference between Kolek, Gordon, Nola, Jackson and anyone else they might be considering at #5. When you have a pick as high as #5 you take the guy that you believe is the most talented and worry about things like strength of the draft and organizational need later.

#32 twinkiesfan11

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 09:47 AM

Quick list of pitchers drafted top 5 who have either busted or failed to live up to expectations IMO

2009: Matt Hobgood
2008: Brian Matusz
2007: Daniel Moskos
2006: Greg Reynolds, Brad Lincoln, arguably Brandon Morrow. Side Note, Andrew Miller also drafted 6th
2005: None Drafted
2004: Phillip Humber, Jeff Niemann, Mark Rogers. Side Note - Jeremy Sowers drafted 6th
2003: Kyle Sleeth, Tim Staufer

#33 Mike Sixel

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 10:08 AM

Rodon, Aiken, Gordon, Touki, Newcomb, Jackson, Kolek.....that is my preference, acknowledging fully itis based on reading scouting reports and not having seen anyone play. I understand it is hard to get elite pitchers outside the draft. It is also hard to get elite SS, period. And a hitter plays five times as many games as a pitcher.......

#34 ashburyjohn

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 10:10 AM

With not a lot of prior thought and thus basing my views on the likely groupthink alluded to above, I'll list them this way: Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, Gordon, Jackson. Whichever one of these is left after the earlier picks, take him; if there's two, go in the order I listed (which might not be the order they actually go). Will be fun watching the process develop this afternoon.

#35 ashburyjohn

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 10:16 AM

And a hitter plays five times as many games as a pitcher.......


And a pitcher has about five times the impact in the game that he is in... :)

#36 twinkiesfan11

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 10:27 AM

Aiken, Gordon, Jackson, Nola, Rodon, Newcomb, Kolek for me.

Rodon seems to have been abused a bit with his college workload. I have nightmares of him being the pick, signing late, being used very sparingly through the end of the year and then blowing out his elbow next spring and not returning until early to mid 2016.

Kolek scares me

#37 jaspatrick

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 10:39 AM

I find Kolek's possible tumble interesting. He has been pegged top three for quite awhile, now Law has him going #8. I'm not worried about possible TJ surgery because his throws so hard. Is it the control or secondary stuff that is at the root of this?

I'm a Gordon over Jackson guy just because I see us and most other organizations quickly moving him to RF, which means to be an all-star he would have to hit a ton, where Gordon can contribute in numerous ways (plus D at short, speed, etc.).

#38 themattsonian

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 10:40 AM

Aiken, Gordon, Jackson, Nola, Rodon, Newcomb, Kolek for me.

Rodon seems to have been abused a bit with his college workload. I have nightmares of him being the pick, signing late, being used very sparingly through the end of the year and then blowing out his elbow next spring and not returning until early to mid 2016.

Kolek scares me


Don't be scared. The dude throws gaaaasssssss. My order: Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, Gordon, Jackson, Newcomb, Nola

#39 tobi0040

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 10:49 AM

And a pitcher has about five times the impact in the game that he is in... :)


I have tried making this point before and am surprised you still hear the every day argument. Every play is primarily batter vs. pitcher. So a starting pitcher that pitches 7 innings is in on 39% of the plays (7 / 18), versus the hitter at 5.5% of the plays (1 / 18)

#40 themattsonian

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 10:49 AM

I find Kolek's possible tumble interesting. He has been pegged top three for quite awhile, now Law has him going #8. I'm not worried about possible TJ surgery because his throws so hard. Is it the control or secondary stuff that is at the root of this?

I'm a Gordon over Jackson guy just because I see us and most other organizations quickly moving him to RF, which means to be an all-star he would have to hit a ton, where Gordon can contribute in numerous ways (plus D at short, speed, etc.).


Is there really any hard evidence that proves high mph guys are more prone to having TJ surgery? I understand that the recent pitchers in the news that have had it were hard throwers, but for every one of those there's a Kyle Gibson and Wimmers that aren't hard throwers that have had TJ as well. I think it has more to do with workload and arm action/angle (though I do not claim to be a doctor). I think we're eventually going to see clubs lean towards HS pitchers because they've had smaller workloads, and their mechanics will be easier to adjust at a younger age. I think there's less risk of Kolek blowing out than there is of Rodon. Rodon was throwing 140-150 pitch outings at NC State, and he's been doing it for 3 extra years. Just my 2 cents.