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Don't Look Now but the Transformation has Begun

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#1 Linus

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 06:58 AM

As ardent Twins fans, we've all been frustrated with our home nine over the last three years and have, understandably, been looking forward to the future when the team would field a lineup of younger, more promising players.

Don't look know but its happening. With Plouffe and Dozier establishing themselves as quality MLB players and substantial playing time for Arcia, Pinto, Escobar, Santana, Hicks and Gibson, the Twins core players are now represented by younger, up and coming players.

I am guessing this process will accelerate as we get closer to the trade deadline as I anticipate (hope) that Corriea, Guerrier and Burton will all be dealt and replaced with younger players. I will also include Willingham in that group unless the Twins can hang around. Then I think we should keep him for the rest of the season (no extensions, please).

#2 pierre75275

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 07:08 AM

I believe you are right....dont forget Kubal. i doubt he will ladt the month

#3 PatG

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 07:08 AM

I will also include Willingham in that group unless the Twins can hang around. Then I think we should keep him for the rest of the season (no extensions, please).


I like a team with some senior leadership. What is wrong with keeping Willingham to provide this if he can keep hitting like he's been since his DL time.

Is the AAA CF/2B Farris ready to come up and play a bit? Is he infield or outfield? Don't we have too many Infielder/Outfielder types?

When are the AAA pitchers going to see the bigs (new M&M boys May and Meyer)?

#4 ScottyB

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 07:09 AM

Please add Duensing

#5 Badsmerf

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 07:35 AM

Please add Duensing

We should package him with some guys to get a young ace pitcher.

#6 Linus

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 07:37 AM

I believe you are right....dont forget Kubal. i doubt he will ladt the month


Good catch. Its possible he just gets release to save Gardy from himself. Might be the only way Parms gets two months of ABs to see if he is a part of our future or part of our past.

#7 tobi0040

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 07:39 AM

As ardent Twins fans, we've all been frustrated with our home nine over the last three years and have, understandably, been looking forward to the future when the team would field a lineup of younger, more promising players.

Don't look know but its happening. With Plouffe and Dozier establishing themselves as quality MLB players and substantial playing time for Arcia, Pinto, Escobar, Santana, Hicks and Gibson, the Twins core players are now represented by younger, up and coming players.

I am guessing this process will accelerate as we get closer to the trade deadline as I anticipate (hope) that Corriea, Guerrier and Burton will all be dealt and replaced with younger players. I will also include Willingham in that group unless the Twins can hang around. Then I think we should keep him for the rest of the season (no extensions, please).


I agree it looks like it is happening. Dozier looks like an elite 2B. Plouffe a decent role player. Arcia shows flashes where it looks like this kid is going to hit up here for a long time. Mauer will be here a long time. SS looks more promising with both Escobar and Santana getting reps and Pinto can sure hit.

Pair Meyer and May with Nolasco and Hughes and the rotation looks like it has potential, especially if Gibson can raise his K rate.

Perkins, Duensing, and a ton of young talent makes the future look good for the pen.

My understanding is we have two decent position player prospects that look like they will be here next year.

#8 halfchest

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 07:42 AM

It's definitely getting more interesting as the year goes on and we see more of these young guys come up and contribute.

Hoping they either start playing Hicks more or just send him down to AAA so he can work on that right handed swing against right handed pitchers. Maybe when Fuld comes back that is the plan?

#9 Linus

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 07:59 AM

It's definitely getting more interesting as the year goes on and we see more of these young guys come up and contribute.

Hoping they either start playing Hicks more or just send him down to AAA so he can work on that right handed swing against right handed pitchers. Maybe when Fuld comes back that is the plan?


I'm now officially torn on the the Hicks situation. If he goes down, then Santana stays but won't be playing short. I'm at the point now where I think Santana is a more important prospect given the lack of other SS in the system. I think he needs to go to Rochester and play short again - my guess is that he ends up being a better overall player than Escobar, probably by next year. Same thing with Pinto - he either needs to the right handed DH plus catch two games a week or he needs to go to Rochester and catch everyday.

#10 tobi0040

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 08:03 AM

I'm now officially torn on the the Hicks situation. If he goes down, then Santana stays but won't be playing short. I'm at the point now where I think Santana is a more important prospect given the lack of other SS in the system. I think he needs to go to Rochester and play short again - my guess is that he ends up being a better overall player than Escobar, probably by next year. Same thing with Pinto - he either needs to the right handed DH plus catch two games a week or he needs to go to Rochester and catch everyday.



I think Hicks should play CF and Santana should play SS. Whether the big club or AAA.

#11 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 08:04 AM

With the addition of Willingham and Arcia, this lineup has gone from "bad offensively, major holes, bad defensively" to "decent offensively, one hole, bad defensively".

I'll take it. This team looks like it might be a legit 80 win team if Meyer, May, or Johnson can come up and contribute. Fill Correia's rotation spot and suddenly, the only major hole in the rotation, bullpen, and lineup is centerfield. Teams can deal with one major hole.

#12 Linus

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 08:17 AM

With the addition of Willingham and Arcia, this lineup has gone from "bad offensively, major holes, bad defensively" to "decent offensively, one hole, bad defensively".

I'll take it. This team looks like it might be a legit 80 win team if Meyer, May, or Johnson can come up and contribute. Fill Correia's rotation spot and suddenly, the only major hole in the rotation, bullpen, and lineup is centerfield. Teams can deal with one major hole.


Yep. I really like the idea of dealing the relievers I mentioned plus Corriea. This allows us to slide Deduno back to the pen and add Meyer and May (I'm not sold on Johnson). Now we have a rotation of Hughes, Nolasco, Meyer, May and Gibson which looks promising for the long run. At this point I would keep Duensing - he's affordable, useful and can be a part of the future.

#13 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 08:23 AM

I'm in no hurry to remove Deduno from the rotation. He has earned a bit of a leash at this point and it's unlikely that whoever replaces him is a better starter immediately. Keep him in the rotation this season he's very good trade bait this offseason.

#14 nicksaviking

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 08:30 AM

I like a team with some senior leadership. What is wrong with keeping Willingham to provide this if he can keep hitting like he's been since his DL time.

Is the AAA CF/2B Farris ready to come up and play a bit? Is he infield or outfield? Don't we have too many Infielder/Outfielder types?

When are the AAA pitchers going to see the bigs (new M&M boys May and Meyer)?


If the Twins are contending, they'll likely keep Willingham around. If they're not, they really do need to try to get something for him. They missed out on getting a nice return from him two years ago during his career year.

As for Eric Farris, he is a 28-year-old minor league journeyman. If he gets called up something went terribly wrong with Dozier/Escobar/Santana/Nunez. He's nothing more than minor league depth

#15 tobi0040

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 08:47 AM

This article and this thought process is really discouraging. You should not play a future SS in CF and bench a top CF prospect because you want to win 77 games instead of 75 or 76.

The manager and development folks need to get on the same page.

http://blogs.twincit...d-straight-day/

#16 drivlikejehu

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 08:51 AM

I'm in no hurry to remove Deduno from the rotation. He has earned a bit of a leash at this point and it's unlikely that whoever replaces him is a better starter immediately. Keep him in the rotation this season he's very good trade bait this offseason.


Deduno has 220 career innings as an MLB starter, with a FIP of 4.55 and xFIP of 4.34 (too small a sample for ERA to be indicative). His run prevention abilities are average but he doesn't pitch deep into games and there are health concerns. He has little trade value and makes more sense as a swingman out of the bullpen.

#17 Brandon

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 09:05 AM

I wouldn't object to a Willingham extension. He is filling a hole in the lineup and Sano and Buxton are not coming up right away next year as we originally planned. 1 year 8 million with 2 million incentives for plate appearances with maybe an option year.

Deduno is one of my favorite players so I hope he hangs around a while. I realize that's not an argument for him to stay on the roster but ....Guerrier is too. I think he'll be here for the year and I can see him here next year on a 1 year 2 million or less.

Santana can stay in CF and Escobar can play SS as long as Escobar can hit .270+ and Santana remains productive.

There is a CF who may be on the market soon. We could probably get him for a prospect like Max Kepler and a bullpen arm maybe......and that would be Denard Span. there are reports on MLBTraderumors.com that they may consider moving him.

And the last part of the transformation beginning is the 2 corner stone FA are also on the roster now. Hughes and Nolasco that's 400 + innings in the rotation the next several years.

Edited by Brandon, 04 June 2014 - 09:12 AM.


#18 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 09:11 AM

Deduno has 220 career innings as an MLB starter, with a FIP of 4.55 and xFIP of 4.34 (too small a sample for ERA to be indicative). His run prevention abilities are average but he doesn't pitch deep into games and there are health concerns. He has little trade value and makes more sense as a swingman out of the bullpen.


I agree that's likely where Deduno ends up given his age and stuff but he has continually defied the odds as a pitcher. As long as he's producing, he should continue to get chances to start. So far, he has been an adequate back of the rotation guy for the Twins and IMO, should continue to get opportunities to fill that role until he is no longer capable of doing so or is traded.

I don't think FIP and xFIP are good markers for Deduno. He has continually shown the ability to induce weak contact and is therefore punished by those statistics.

#19 TheLeviathan

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 09:14 AM

A Willingham extension would make me question the sobriety of our front office.

#20 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 09:18 AM

A Willingham extension would make me question the sobriety of our front office.


Eh, on a Jim Thome-type deal it's not a bad flyer.

Though it's unlikely Josh is going to accept that deal.

#21 dave1406390226

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 09:32 AM

The Nationals are all out of love for Span. Way too inconsistent (5 for 5 one night, 3 for 25 the next five nights) with a low on-base percentage. Problem is they need infield help which the Twins do not have a surplus of. Plus, if I remember right, Span is due a lot of money next year.

#22 JB_Iowa

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 09:44 AM

The Nationals are all out of love for Span. Way too inconsistent (5 for 5 one night, 3 for 25 the next five nights) with a low on-base percentage. Problem is they need infield help which the Twins do not have a surplus of. Plus, if I remember right, Span is due a lot of money next year.


You are right. There's a $9 million club option with a $.5 million buyout.

Pretty general consensus is that the option won't be exercised.

#23 OldTimeTwinkie

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 09:49 AM

I think we can have a nice serviceable cf combo of Fuld vs righties and Hicks vs lefties. Which means Kubel should be DFA. Left field Willingham/Parms/Nuenez combo.

#24 drivlikejehu

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 10:13 AM

I agree that's likely where Deduno ends up given his age and stuff but he has continually defied the odds as a pitcher. As long as he's producing, he should continue to get chances to start. So far, he has been an adequate back of the rotation guy for the Twins and IMO, should continue to get opportunities to fill that role until he is no longer capable of doing so or is traded.

I don't think FIP and xFIP are good markers for Deduno. He has continually shown the ability to induce weak contact and is therefore punished by those statistics.


I agree he's an adequate back-end starter. That's only a commodity in the eyes of shell shocked Twins fans. I'm not in a hurry to remove him from the rotation either, since Correia is still in it... but if a young player earns a shot, Deduno shouldn't be an impediment. That would make no sense for the future of the club.

#25 TheLeviathan

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 10:16 AM

Eh, on a Jim Thome-type deal it's not a bad flyer.

Though it's unlikely Josh is going to accept that deal.


Sure, if you want to extend the definition of extension to include "ridiculously low wage, one year deals" I could probably entertain the idea. But I don't find that remotely plausible and anything other than that is a horrible idea.

#26 jay

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 10:22 AM

I don't think FIP and xFIP are good markers for Deduno. He has continually shown the ability to induce weak contact and is therefore punished by those statistics.


Precisely. The statistical inputs are HRs (flyballs in xFIP), walks, and strikeouts. Deduno's strengths of a groundball rate approaching 60% (see: 3 inning ending DPs last night) and weak contact isn't captured very well in FIP.

#27 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 10:27 AM

Sure, if you want to extend the definition of extension to include "ridiculously low wage, one year deals" I could probably entertain the idea. But I don't find that remotely plausible and anything other than that is a horrible idea.


No arguments here.

#28 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 10:29 AM

I agree he's an adequate back-end starter. That's only a commodity in the eyes of shell shocked Twins fans.


I don't necessarily agree with that. If Deduno continues pitching around a 100 ERA+ clip, he has value. Despite his age, he's still not even arb eligible. Teams won't give up a lot for him but they'll give up something for a 30 year old with a 100 ERA+ making $1m a season and under team control.

#29 DuluthFan

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 10:32 AM

A couple things for those arguing against trying to win a few more games this year.
1) The Twins have had three very bad seasons. This season progress needs to be shown. The end of the rebuild needs to be within reach. This team will eventually need to play a competitive .500 season before realistically being thought of as a playoff team.
2) It will be easier to entice a quality free agent to sign with the Twins in the off season if they seem to be within reach of being a playoff contender. Signing with a .500 team and being 'the missing piece' is easier to swallow than signing with a rebuilding team still waiting for the young guys to advance.
3) The AL Central seems to be filled with .500 teams this year. With a few breaks, this Twins team could finish second. The Twins seem to be playing competitively with most of the teams they have faced this year. They even won a series vs the Yankees. The have struggled with the couple elite teams, but that should be expected.
4) Attendance and revenue will suffer both this year and next if the Twins repeat another 90 loss season.

#30 tobi0040

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 10:40 AM

That would make no sense for the future of the club.


Let's take a step back and remember which club we are talking about. In a season where success is 78 wins, the following things are happening:

-A top prospect, CF is sitting on the bench while another potential future starting SS is playing in CF instead of getting reps at SS (where he needs work defensively)

-A future catching prospect is playing about twice a week

-Kevin C. is blocking Meyer and May

-We have a 34 year old, washed up OF with a .622 OPS getting reps daily