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#21 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 12:23 PM

If the Twins replaced Kubel with Pinto, and replaced Correia with May, I think they would finish above .500 AND continue the transition to younger players. There is no way in heck they will beat Detroit for the division, but a wild card spot? Why not?


Over .500? I'm not sure about that. Close to .500? Yeah, I think that's possible.

And I don't think this team has the horses to compete at the 90 win level it requires to win a WC spot.

I'll be very happy if they simply stay in the WC race through July.

#22 MichiganTwins

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 12:39 PM

I don't think it is going to take 90 wins to win the second wild card spot.

#23 Mike Sixel

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 12:46 PM

This, to me, is why you should be willing to sign legit FAs even when "they are so bad last year there is NO WAY they could compete this year"......Imagine if they had Garza instead of Pelfrey, and Ellsbury in CF. No get rid of Guerrier and Burton. Now add May or Meyer for whichever starter falters. Put Mauer close to his normal self.

that team is better than this team, maybe 4 or 5 wins better right now. Maybe, come the trade deadline, that team is adding a DH or something to get them over the top.

this team? This team will be in full budget cut/veteran trading mode come the deadline.

And, the argument will be made not to sign a big time FA next year, because "they weren't good last year, and can't compete this eyar, need to wait until the right time"......the right time comes a lot faster if you add more assets early in the rebuild.

all this is imo, of course

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#24 Beezer07

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 01:11 PM

Saying "what if we had signed XYZ" is fine, if futile. Saying "Put Mauer close to his normal self" is downright absurd. No amount of FAs makes Mauer not slump.

#25 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 01:29 PM

Imagine if they had Garza instead of Pelfrey, and Ellsbury in CF.


While I'm not against signing free agents, neither of those players are very good this season. Garza has only been marginally better than Kevin Correia and there's a very good chance that Ellsbury's contract becomes a laughing stock of baseball within a year or two.

I've been saying it for ten years and it amazes me that teams still do it: the dumbest thing you can do in free agency is sign a speedster in his late 20s to a long-term deal. Ellsbury currently has a .696 OPS outside Yankee Stadium and a .726 OPS overall.

All for the low, low price of $153m.

#26 TheLeviathan

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 02:13 PM

Dozier's 2014 OPS is .791. Dozier's OPS over the past 365 days is .779. He's not overperforming. This appears to be who he is.


Not all OPS are created the same. He's taken another step forward that even most optimists wouldn't have predicted. Also, if Colabello isn't the very definition of "smoke and mirrors" I'm going to need some clarification.

They're not the April pitching staff. Every guy except Gibson underperformed. It's very unlikely that we see much regression from the rotation without injury. Hughes might slide but Nolasco will probably improve.


Aren't you the same person that railed against using regression to the mean to predict backslides but now find it perfectly cushy to use to predict improvements?

Deduno, Nolasco, Correia, and Gibson could all very easily be their less productive versions. We've seen this before and we have data to suggest it's very possible. Plouffe has been known to go pumpkin. Escobar is hardly producing at a level that is easy to count on. Ditto Suzuki. Hammer's health is a constant issue.

All I'm saying is that we've had two bi-polar months. I'm not comfortable saying we know what June will look like.

#27 JB_Iowa

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 02:22 PM

Not all OPS are created the same. He's taken another step forward that even most optimists wouldn't have predicted.


Maybe not but at least there appears to be a basis for the increase in his offensive performance (and defensive as well) rather than just "smoke and mirrors".

This is a good article about the change: http://www.sportsone...ta-twins#!UASXt

A telling paragraph about the work he did with Bruno:

"So we dissected my swing for days upon days, that whole week in Detroit. And we saw I wasn't getting my foot down -- meaning, I was getting my foot down, but my toe. My whole foot wasn't flat, so when I started my swing, my whole foot wasn't down, I started [and] everything kind of collapsed. We made it muscle memory for a week, trying to get the foot down, and ever since then, I started seeing the ball more, creating more power, walks up, strikeouts down, just because I could see the ball better."

He also talks about laying off sliders and the author does a good job of describing his improved approach.

#28 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 02:25 PM

Aren't you the same person that railed against using regression to the mean to predict backslides but now find it perfectly cushy to use to predict improvements?


Where did I predict improvement? I said they all underperformed in April and performed more in line with what was expected in May, excluding Hughes... and any regression by Hughes is likely to be offset by improvement from Nolasco, who is well below his career norm at this point. Sure, all of those pitchers could turn into pumpkins but outside of Gibson, I see no reason to believe that to be the case.

#29 TheLeviathan

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 02:25 PM

Oh no, I'm not implying that Dozier can't keep it up or that it was smoke and mirrors....but it was unexpected. I hate it when people seem to stack their argument and pretend like this Twins team has only positives to look forward to and everything good that has happened was expected and easily maintained. Whereas all the negatives are highly likely to turn the corner while no others take their place.

It likely has a mix of both coming.

#30 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 02:27 PM

Maybe not but at least there appears to be a basis for the increase in his offensive performance (and defensive as well) rather than just "smoke and mirrors".


Nothing about Brian Dozier is smoke and mirrors. The guy turned into a different player the day he changed his swing in May of 2013 and hasn't looked back. He now looks like the guy he was in the minors, only with man muscles (which is a surprise to almost everyone). I was bullish on Dozier in July of last season and every day, he just keeps confirming that he's a different guy who isn't going to regress.

#31 TheLeviathan

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 02:27 PM

Where did I predict improvement? I said they all underperformed in April and performed more in line with what was expected in May, excluding Hughes... and any regression by Hughes is likely to be offset by improvement from Nolasco, who is well below his career norm at this point. Sure, all of those pitchers could turn into pumpkins but outside of Gibson, I see no reason to believe that to be the case.


April is evidence of it. We basically have two months of data at polar opposites, so I don't find either conclusive. And you implied Mauer's likely improvement.

#32 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 02:30 PM

I hate it when people seem to stack their argument and pretend like this Twins team has only positives to look forward to and everything good that has happened was expected and easily maintained. Whereas all the negatives are highly likely to turn the corner while no others take their place.


Except that I didn't do that. A lot of guys underperformed in April. A lot of guys overperformed in April. Many from both camps are gone. I hope to see more follow soon (hello, Jason Kubel).

Notice that I stayed well away from the Colabello conversation in April except to say "great story". That had train wreck written all over it.

I feel Suzuki is due to regress. I hope I'm wrong. I feel Escobar is due to regress, though probably not to the point of being unacceptable. I hope I'm wrong.

There's a difference between me not bringing up the regression candidates (especially ones who are no longer on the team) and not expecting some players to regress.

#33 JB_Iowa

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 02:33 PM

Nothing about Brian Dozier is smoke and mirrors. The guy turned into a different player the day he changed his swing in May of 2013 and hasn't looked back. He now looks like the guy he was in the minors, only with man muscles (which is a surprise to almost everyone). I was bullish on Dozier in July of last season and every day, he just keeps confirming that he's a different guy who isn't going to regress.


First, I apologize to Levi for misinterpreting his statement about "smoke and mirrors". Second, I went ahead an posted the "Sports on Earth" piece about Dozier in a separate thread because I thought it was a good look at the changes for him both defensively and at the plate.

#34 TheLeviathan

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 02:52 PM

There's a difference between me not bringing up the regression candidates (especially ones who are no longer on the team) and not expecting some players to regress.


Illustrating some balance in your responses would help indicate that you share that vision. Too often we hear "look at all this stuff that is or is about to go right!" with zero effort to balance that opinion. Then chains like this start.

#35 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:21 PM

Illustrating some balance in your responses would help indicate that you share that vision. Too often we hear "look at all this stuff that is or is about to go right!" with zero effort to balance that opinion. Then chains like this start.


I often leave the negative out of my posts, choosing not to talk about a player/manager/situation rather than pile on to the argument. It's only when I see a player with such a glaring flaw that I chime in and debate those who predict improvement or even the status quo (eg. Pedro Florimon).

For the record, I expect Suzuki to regress, though hopefully not back to his 2013 numbers. I expect Escobar to regress but I'm so damned happy that Florimon is gone that I won't complain about it. I expect Gibson to either start missing bats or regress badly. When he comes back, I expect Fuld to post Hicksian numbers, though I'm okay with that (hopefully he'll be a tick above Hicks in the stats department). I expect Matt Guerrier to spontaneously combust on the mound any day now. Jared Burton has a decent chance of re-combusting any time now. Danny Santana is the very definition of smoke and mirrors. I don't see how he can keep it up.

I think that's everybody.

#36 MileHighTwinsFan

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:38 PM

The race to watch is for the second wild card. Twins are 2.5 GB and none of the teams in front of us are without flaws. The question is going to be whether the Twins are buyers or sellers.

It is very easy to see how this team could trade for a center fielder and a DH/corner outfielder and be in this race to the finish.

Conversely, with so many teams in the hunt - the selling price for one of our relievers, Willingham or Corriea could be way above normal value.

Either way, I see the Twins being very active at the trade deadline.

#37 Mike Sixel

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 07:17 PM

Brock missing the point.....that if you keep refusing to get good, to wait for the perfect time, that time takes forever to come.......if they add one legit FA a year before this year, they are several to many games better, and there is no lame excuse not to try to win this year or next year......which we all know is coming, just like this year.

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#38 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 07:23 PM

I was as against the pathetic 2012 offseason as anybody. But I can't complain much about this past offseason. The Twins did a lot to shore up their issues. Obviously not perfect but pretty good if only for the Hughes signing.

#39 Mike Sixel

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 07:25 PM

They were further from being in the top ten in runs scored, than in runs allowed, and aded Bartlett and Kubel and Suzuki......and counted on Willingham to be healthy and Hicks to play CF and Florimann to be the SS......

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#40 jokin

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 07:58 PM

They were further from being in the top ten in runs scored, than in runs allowed, and aded Bartlett and Kubel and Suzuki......and counted on Willingham to be healthy and Hicks to play CF and Florimann to be the SS......


There was apparently little attempt, short of supposedly pursuing Rajai Davis, to shore up the offense. Suzuki was brought in for defense, his offensive production is unexpected and is highly unlikely to continue. But.....imagine if you will..... the current team with Abreu instead of Kubel and Bonifacio instead of Bartlett?