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Article: No Room in the Rotation for Trevor May

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#1 Nick Nelson

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 10:32 AM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...-for-Trevor-May

#2 Dman

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 10:41 AM

To be honest I am not a May believer. I feel like his fastball lacks movement and he doesn't consistently throw enough strikes. He seemed like RP material to me.

Not sure what has changed but he has really pitched well recently. I have to say he is surprising me right now but I do expect a meltdown in the not too distant future. I hope he makes me eat crow.

#3 tobi0040

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 10:46 AM

To be honest I am not a May believer. I feel like his fastball lacks movement and he doesn't consistently throw enough strikes. He seemed like RP material to me.

Not sure what has changed but he has really pitched well recently. I have to say he is surprising me right now but I do expect a meltdown in the not too distant future. I hope he makes me eat crow.


I am a believer in May, but think that Meyer should get the first call, without a doubt. Mays numbers are better this year, 2.62 ERA versus 3.31. Meyer's K's are better (62 in 51 IP versus 54 in 55 ip).

Their numbers over the last two years are not even close (Meyer's ERA was 2.99 and 2.86 versus Mays 4.87 and 4.51).

#4 Nick Nelson

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 10:52 AM

Meyer has far more long-term upside, but there are outside circumstances dictating that May will get the first shot, even beyond the fact that he's pitched way better lately. May is older, already on the 40-man roster, and not dealing with cautionary restrictions after missing significant time last year.

#5 drivlikejehu

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 11:01 AM

If Correia is worth an MLB rotation spot, surely 1 of the other 29 teams would take him off the Twins' hands? His numbers don't really matter - he will not be in the rotation of the next contending Twins club. So his presence is pointless when younger options are available.

I'm not a big believer in May, but between him and the other guys at AAA, it makes no sense to throw Correia out there.

#6 nicksaviking

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 11:17 AM

" But when you look at the five starters currently comprising the rotation, you can't really argue that any are deserving of a demotion."

"Samuel Deduno hasn't been spectacular since taking over for Pelfrey in early May, but certainly hasn't done anything to put his job in danger."

"You can't really punish a guy for being unlucky. Correia is doing what he needs to do."

I'm certainly not arguing against anything in the article, but these passages imply reactive management as opposed to proactive management. I also don't mean to imply these are your feelings as clearly this is something we would expect from the Twins.

Maybe it's not fair to Deduno or Correia to lose their job, BUT if there is a guy in AAA who appears to be better, fair needs to be tossed in the trash. After all, it's not fair to the players in the locker room, it's not fair to the fans and it's not fair to the sport of baseball to keep a superior pitcher in AAA for the sole reason of doing kindness to the guy at the majors. How do we weigh fairness for an individual against everyone else?

If hurting Correia's feelings MUST be avoided at all costs, the Twins could do what the Cardinals do and bring him up to get his feet wet in the pen.

#7 Shane Wahl

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 11:24 AM

I am definitely a believer in May, though not as a top 40% of the rotation guy. I think it is best to wait a bit for Correia to either suck terribly or get better enough to trade him for any kind of Miguel Sulbaranesque prospect if possible. This could happen in a month. So May will either benefit from a Twins injury or other injuries on other teams looking to make a playoff run. I haven't really looked at rotation depth for the top half of each league to see where he might fit.

#8 ChiTownTwinsFan

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 11:34 AM

I'm in the minority on this, but I'm kind of waiting for Deduno to, well, not last. Not that I want him to falter, but I still wonder if his shoulder can stay healthy for a whole season. The 'luck' our rotation has seen can't last even though I hope it does.

#9 jorgenswest

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 11:37 AM

The Twins are close enough to the super2 line (there isn't an exact date but projected to be somewhere mid to late June) to wait a few more weeks. By the end of the month, both May and Meyer need an opportunity.

They can release Correia or seek a taker of his salary. He also can be moved to the pen if there is space due to injury or trade. He has skills that fit the bullpen. He should not be blocking them.

Deduno will not have he benefit of a large sample to consider the data, but he does need to show that he can get deep in games. If his control consistently leads to 15-20 pitch innings, it is really difficult to keep him on the rotation. That only works if he can throw 120 pitches regularly. He probably shouldn't be blocking May or Meyer.

#10 Nick Nelson

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 11:41 AM

Maybe it's not fair to Deduno or Correia to lose their job, BUT if there is a guy in AAA who appears to be better, fair needs to be tossed in the trash. After all, it's not fair to the players in the locker room, it's not fair to the fans and it's not fair to the sport of baseball to keep a superior pitcher in AAA for the sole reason of doing kindness to the guy at the majors. How do we weigh fairness for an individual against everyone else?

The point isn't really about fairness. The point is that it doesn't behoove the Twins to remove pitchers who aren't performing badly and replacing them with a total unknown. I'm hopeful that May can perform in the majors, and he's a nice piece of have on-hand. I'm sure they'll need him at some point.

#11 MileHighTwinsFan

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 11:46 AM

Patience will be key to Twins fans. May will get his shot, it is just a matter of when. I would suspect that Corriea will pitch just well enough that he will be attractive to a team competing for a Wild Card and in need of an extra arm.

Frankly a team with a better outfield should help his numbers.

#12 jharaldson

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 11:49 AM

Correia is currently ranked 96th out 101 pitchers in xFIP, I would say he is already terrible and ready to be removed. We could say his .336 BABIP is unlucky but I would also say his HR/9 of .88 when league average for starters is .97 is lucky. Both his result (ERA = 5.87) and the predictive stat (xFIP = 4.59) suck so I would give him the boot and give May a shot.

Edited by jharaldson, 02 June 2014 - 11:50 AM.
spelling


#13 mike wants wins

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 11:56 AM

what jharaldson said....96th in xfip......that's pretty bad. I guess another idea would be....do you want to stagger when your prospects come up, proactively, or just have 5 new guys next year? And, based on this, we won't ever see Meyer w/o an injury. To me, it is about proactively managing the roster, which I don't really see right now. ymmv, of course.

#14 jokin

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 11:57 AM

The Twins are close enough to the super2 line (there isn't an exact date but projected to be somewhere mid to late June) to wait a few more weeks. By the end of the month, both May and Meyer need an opportunity.

They can release Correia or seek a taker of his salary. He also can be moved to the pen if there is space due to injury or trade. He has skills that fit the bullpen. He should not be blocking them.

Deduno will not have he benefit of a large sample to consider the data, but he does need to show that he can get deep in games. If his control consistently leads to 15-20 pitch innings, it is really difficult to keep him on the rotation. That only works if he can throw 120 pitches regularly. He probably shouldn't be blocking May or Meyer.


Just looking at the pitching promotions around the league this season, there aren't many clubs who would have withheld promoting May and Meyer when your SP staff has been at or near the worst in baseball for SP ERA. And as others have noted, when some clubs are presented with just the situation the Twins are in, they automatically see the need to have the best pitchers in their organization pitching with the big club out of the bullpen- "one heart beat away", earning their spurs through a relief role apprenticeship.

While I see the dollars and sense logic on putting things on hold right now....if the Twins are still reticent on promoting May and Meyer (in some capacity) after the Super 2 date has been established, it's pretty obvious what one would necessarily conclude about the Twins intentions- "'Wait 'til next year' and save on the service time this year."

#15 Tibs

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 11:59 AM

I would love for May and some of the other AAA guys to get a chance. How do we know if they would be better than what is currently on the Twins? Well, really the only way to find out if something is going to work is to try it. The only problem is no one has pitched consistently bad enough to be flat out released, which means someone has to be sent down or traded. I assume we aren't quite to the point in the season when teams are really looking hard for pitching.

#16 kblack1011

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 12:01 PM

This really shows the problem with signing players like Correia and Pelfrey to 2 year contacts. The Twins have marginal big league pitchers holding back prospects and the pitchers you signed really don't have much trade value.

#17 amjgt

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 12:03 PM

Why is it that xFIP always seems to help these 5.00+ ERA guys?

Maybe the formula starts to break down when a players stinks like Correia has.

At some point the "X" (expected) shouldn't always be a run better than the actual.

#18 jokin

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 12:05 PM

The point isn't really about fairness. The point is that it doesn't behoove the Twins to remove pitchers who aren't performing badly and replacing them with a total unknown. I'm hopeful that May can perform in the majors, and he's a nice piece of have on-hand. I'm sure they'll need him at some point.

\


What does this mean, exactly? Andrew Albers was a "total unknown". The two guys that were acquired- which effectively crippled the OF from the day they were acquired- are hopefully more highly regarded by the Twins braintrust than that, for once they finally earn their promotion. (The world won't end if either of the M & Ms falter out of the gate, you can always go back to the guy he replaced).

#19 jokin

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 12:07 PM

I would love for May and some of the other AAA guys to get a chance. How do we know if they would be better than what is currently on the Twins? Well, really the only way to find out if something is going to work is to try it. The only problem is no one has pitched consistently bad enough to be flat out released, which means someone has to be sent down or traded. I assume we aren't quite to the point in the season when teams are really looking hard for pitching.


...or sent to the bullpen.

#20 mike wants wins

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 12:11 PM

What is the downside of cutting KC? If May doesn't work, try Darnell, and the next guy......until one does. This really makes you wonder what they were thinking when they kicked the tires on Garza, after signing Pelfrey. Were they planning to just leave their best arms in AAA (btw, every pitch is an opportunity to get hurt, lots of teams call up SP prospects earlier now, to get more pitches out of them before they are hurt, one of the ESPN or Fangraphs articles addressed that a month or so ago)?
Lighten up Francis....

#21 Beezer07

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 12:16 PM

I find it silly for a team who, as some argue, lacks CF/OF depth because of their propensity to cut serviceable backup options...to cut/waive/demote a serviceable 4th/5th starter because someone in AAA "should" be with the big league club.

#22 jokin

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 12:16 PM

What is the downside of cutting KC? If May doesn't work, try Darnell, and the next guy......until one does. This really makes you wonder what they were thinking when they kicked the tires on Garza, after signing Pelfrey. Were they planning to just leave their best arms in AAA (btw, every pitch is an opportunity to get hurt, lots of teams call up SP prospects earlier now, to get more pitches out of them before they are hurt, one of the ESPN or Fangraphs articles addressed that a month or so ago)?


Exactly right. The Twins thinking on holding back their best arms is so arcane- can we all get together and chip in and get them an ESPN insider subscription?- they can't even begin to grasp the depths of their "penny-wise, pound foolishness".

#23 Beezer07

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 12:17 PM

What is the downside of cutting KC? If May doesn't work, try Darnell, and the next guy......until one does. This really makes you wonder what they were thinking when they kicked the tires on Garza, after signing Pelfrey. Were they planning to just leave their best arms in AAA (btw, every pitch is an opportunity to get hurt, lots of teams call up SP prospects earlier now, to get more pitches out of them before they are hurt, one of the ESPN or Fangraphs articles addressed that a month or so ago)?


I was typing my post at the same time you posted. But the downside is you hurt depth by cutting pitchers like KC. He can function at the major league level...what happens if injuries start piling up?

#24 jokin

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 12:21 PM

I find it silly for a team who, as some argue, lacks CF/OF depth because of their propensity to cut serviceable backup options...to cut/waive/demote a serviceable 4th/5th starter because someone in AAA "should" be with the big league club.


Pelfrey was sent on a magical mystery DL tour, others could be relegated to the bullpen- Deduno is extremely effective against LHB and could go back into a relief role ( and there are multiple pitchers with remaining options)...there are ways to deal with this, while better preparing for the future. This is what a rebuilding team does, so that they can avoid building for a future that never gets here.

#25 mike wants wins

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 12:24 PM

I was typing my post at the same time you posted. But the downside is you hurt depth by cutting pitchers like KC. He can function at the major league level...what happens if injuries start piling up?


Fear of injuries is no reason to keep a really bad veteran in the lineup, when there are (likely) better options in AAA (four of them, actually). It's like not DHing Pinto, in case Suzuki gets hurt (on a different scale).
Lighten up Francis....

#26 drivlikejehu

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 12:27 PM

I was typing my post at the same time you posted. But the downside is you hurt depth by cutting pitchers like KC. He can function at the major league level...what happens if injuries start piling up?


Yeah, what does happen if injuries start piling up? What difference does Correia make in that situation?

There is always fungible, AAAA talent out there if 5 or 6 starters get hurt at the same time. Either way Correia does nothing for the organization.

#27 Beezer07

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 12:27 PM

Fear of injuries is no reason to keep a really bad veteran in the lineup, when there are (likely) better options in AAA (four of them, actually). It's like not DHing Pinto, in case Suzuki gets hurt (on a different scale).


I would argue that pitching and position players are so different that comparing this to the Pinto/Suzuki situation is unhelpful. I agree that complete garbage shouldn't be kept around solely in case of a worst case scenario, but I would argue that KC is far from complete garbage, and the Twins are bad enough that it doesn't hurt to keep May working in AAA and hope that KC can keep providing innings.

#28 mike wants wins

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 12:37 PM

6th worst xfip in all the majors.
2nd worst ERA in all the majors.

How bad would a pitcher, with only 4 months left on his contract, have to be to be bad enough to be replaced, if that isn't bad enough?
Lighten up Francis....

#29 tobi0040

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 12:44 PM

6th worst xfip in all the majors.
2nd worst ERA in all the majors.

How bad would a pitcher, with only 4 months left on his contract, have to be to be bad enough to be replaced, if that isn't bad enough?


Lets get rid of the garbage and give the fans something to be excited about. I agree 100%, worrying about depth and keeping more talented pitchers in AAA is exactly how you end up with the worst staff in the league for three years.

#30 Tibs

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 12:50 PM

...or sent to the bullpen.


You still have to get rid of someone. There are some guys in the minors that I would rather see up here, but this isn't a video game where you can trade/send down/cut players at will no matter how much we may want that to happen.
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