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Article: Twins Draft Preview: Mock Draft v.2.0

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#1 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 12:21 AM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...ock-Draft-v-2-0

#2 kblack1011

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 05:38 AM

From what I read, I would be disappointed if the Twins passed on Gordon. I understand he more of a high risk player, but Nola sounds like the middle of the rotation guy. I'd rather go upside at 5 instead of a safe pick.

#3 cmathewson

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 06:29 AM

Not a huge fan of Nola, given his delivery and the strain it puts on his elbow. I'd rather have Gordon.

#4 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 07:12 AM

We need a SS more than we need a middle of the rotation guy (Nola). If we don't select Gordon, where will our future SS come from? Santana and Gordon have equal chances of becoming a competent major league SS and I predict Gordon will be the better of the two.

#5 tobi0040

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 07:17 AM

Not a huge fan of Nola, given his delivery and the strain it puts on his elbow. I'd rather have Gordon.


Between the two, I would rather have Gordon as well. I really hope one of Aiken-Rodon-Jackson-Kolek falls to us. The upside with those guys seems to be much, much higher than Gordon or Nola. I would prefer Touki or Newcomb over Gordon or Nola.

#6 mike wants wins

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 07:28 AM

Not a fan. Touki or Gordon please in that scenario.

#7 InfraRen

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 07:30 AM

Would be pretty salty about a Nola pick. I can see you predicting him as "Twins pick" but the last few pitchers they've acquired high in the draft, or via trade (Stewart, Meyer, May) are not "Twins picks" so maybe the trend has been bucked. Would much rather take a chance on a guy like Touki who at least has upside to be a top of the rotation guy.

Callis likens Nola to a slightly better Mike Leake, with the ceiling of a good #3. That's not what I want at #5.

Gordon presents a near perfect blend of need and BPA at #5. If he's there, he should be the pick (barring one of the top 3 pitchers slides, perhaps Jackson, or the off chance they love Touki/Newcomb.)

Edited by InfraRen, 29 May 2014 - 07:50 AM.

Till I Collapse

#8 gunnarthor

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 07:43 AM

I think I'm actually more excited about our second pick than the first. From what I've read, it's pretty certain that the Twins will take Gordon if he's there. If not, it's Nola. Both are fine with me.

#9 nicksaviking

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 07:52 AM

Why do you make me sad on a beautiful Thursday morning?

#10 Seth Stohs

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 07:53 AM

I 100% believe in Best Player Available, but I am definitely riding the Aaron Nola bandwagon right now. I think his floor is #3 starter, but I think with his pitches, sink, velocity, he could be even more, and he could be up in 2015!

A rotation of Nolasco, Hughes, Meyer, Gibson and Nola sounds pretty exciting to me!

That said, I'm not going to pretend to have watched him pitch enough over the years to know for certain. And, I've never seen Nick Gordon (or Alex Jackson, or any of these guys) enough to pretend I know what his ceiling is. I don't see a high ceiling for Gordon from reports I've read, though I like his genetics.

Kolek scares me the most of anyone. I'd avoid him, but who knows, he could be that rare exception of a guy who is able to maintain 102 for a decade or more...

#11 Seth Stohs

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 07:56 AM

I think I'm actually more excited about our second pick than the first. From what I've read, it's pretty certain that the Twins will take Gordon if he's there. If not, it's Nola. Both are fine with me.


That's my stance too... I'm fine with any of those top six guys.

#12 mike wants wins

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 07:57 AM

2015? no chance, imo.
Lighten up Francis....

#13 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 08:27 AM

A ship is always safe in the harbor, but that is not what it was built for. Don't take a "safe pick" on the 5th draft choice. We desperately need a SS, the rarest quality position player on a team. If you don't take a risk, you are guaranteeing things will remain the same. If the big 3 pitchers are not available, draft Gordon.

#14 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 08:31 AM

I 100% believe in Best Player Available, but I am definitely riding the Aaron Nola bandwagon right now. I think his floor is #3 starter, but I think with his pitches, sink, velocity, he could be even more, and he could be up in 2015!

A rotation of Nolasco, Hughes, Meyer, Gibson and Nola sounds pretty exciting to me!

That said, I'm not going to pretend to have watched him pitch enough over the years to know for certain. And, I've never seen Nick Gordon (or Alex Jackson, or any of these guys) enough to pretend I know what his ceiling is. I don't see a high ceiling for Gordon from reports I've read, though I like his genetics.

Kolek scares me the most of anyone. I'd avoid him, but who knows, he could be that rare exception of a guy who is able to maintain 102 for a decade or more...

So we don't draft Kolek because he throws the ball too fast?

#15 SarasotaBill

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 08:34 AM

Take BAA.

If Gordon is not BAA, then spend the whole 2014 Int'l Pool Money if necessary on the top Int'l SS.

#16 mike wants wins

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 08:37 AM

good one bill....good one. That has not been their MO with int'l FA. It has been to get lots of guys, and see if one sticks.
Lighten up Francis....

#17 Ozziedavisfan

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 08:57 AM

If we take Nola, I going to think that it is a total cost saving move. To be frank I would hate that move. A. he has less upside. and you can say that kolek (who I think will be gone by the time we pick) is risky but I'd much rather take the risk than go safe. B. love the fact that they have no problem taking raw postion players but they taking a raw pitcher with upside. that would be no no

#18 jed54767

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 09:00 AM

I agree with Seth! Steer clear of Kolek.. I understand that he throws 102.. but he is the riskiest of all the top players in this class (see Stetson Allie a few years ago). I see him being a closer or high octane reliever not as a starter. And no one wants to waste a top 5 pick on a reliever. Aiken is by far the best player in the class and he is going to be off the board. Rodon will be gone as well. I personally think we go college arm this year. Hoffman would be cheap and might have the highest ceiling of all the college starters when healthy. Plus TJ is already out of the way. I can and will keep saying though that I like the big strong lefty in Newcomb though more than Nola and Freeland. He just looks like the next Jon Lester. Gordon, eh, leave him for the birds.

#19 SarasotaBill

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 09:05 AM

Sano was the exception and he is their top int'l prospect.

With 18 million coming off the books at the end of 2014 (Willingham, Correia, Burton, and Kubel), spend the money on young int'l free agents and signing team friendly long term deals with pre-free agency players (like Rays did with Longeria).

2014 & 2015 is a transition period for the Twins. Unlike Mike Trout. most prospects take awhile to succeed at the MLB level.

Every decision should be based on what's best for the period of 2016 to 2022.

#20 tobi0040

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 09:10 AM

[quote name='Seth Stohs']I 100% believe in Best Player Available, but I am definitely riding the Aaron Nola bandwagon right now. I think his floor is #3 starter, but I think with his pitches, sink, velocity, he could be even more, and he could be up in 2015!

A rotation of Nolasco, Hughes, Meyer, Gibson and Nola sounds pretty exciting to me!

That said, I'm not going to pretend to have watched him pitch enough over the years to know for certain. And, I've never seen Nick Gordon (or Alex Jackson, or any of these guys) enough to pretend I know what his ceiling is. I don't see a high ceiling for Gordon from reports I've read, though I like his genetics.QUOTE]

Of the few scouting reports I have read on Nola (I have never seen him pitch outside of a few video's either), this one seems to be consensus. A plus fastball, good to excellent control. No real consensus on his secondary offerings, most have them at average and some think the curve could develop. The comp to a #3 who can be up quick seems to be the general thought. Given that he will be 21 next week, the odds of that second plus pitch emerging seems to be much less than a guy like Touki, who most say is closer to having 2 plus pitches at 18.

If you accept the following truths, it is hard for me to conclude Nola should be the pick:

1) we will never sign a front line starter in free agency
2) most teams in the playoffs/world series have at least one front line starter
3) Even the Twins are able to sign a #3 starter without breaking the bank (last offseason you could argue we signed two and almost another)

http://www.twinkieto...port-aaron-nola

Edited by tobi0040, 29 May 2014 - 09:12 AM.


#21 HansGruber

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 09:11 AM

I 100% believe in Best Player Available, but I am definitely riding the Aaron Nola bandwagon right now. I think his floor is #3 starter, but I think with his pitches, sink, velocity, he could be even more, and he could be up in 2015!

A rotation of Nolasco, Hughes, Meyer, Gibson and Nola sounds pretty exciting to me!

That said, I'm not going to pretend to have watched him pitch enough over the years to know for certain. And, I've never seen Nick Gordon (or Alex Jackson, or any of these guys) enough to pretend I know what his ceiling is. I don't see a high ceiling for Gordon from reports I've read, though I like his genetics.

Kolek scares me the most of anyone. I'd avoid him, but who knows, he could be that rare exception of a guy who is able to maintain 102 for a decade or more...


I'm right there beside you on the Nola bandwagon, and a 2015 timetable isn't out of the question considering the guy he is compared to, Mike Leake, made a direct jump. It's not sexy but I would not be the least bit disappointed getting a better version of Mike Leake at number 5.

#22 nfisch22

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 09:26 AM

Im a bigger fan of Freeland than I am Nola. Mostly because I prefer the LHP, I think they are both very good college arms that can help the twins sooner than later.

#23 nicksaviking

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 09:30 AM

I don't think anyone has said Nola has a FLOOR of a #3 pitcher, only a ceiling of a #3. There has never been a pitcher in the history of ever that has had a floor of a #3. That's basically a zero percent chance that he will bust.

The guy throws 91-92 mph and no wipeout breaking pitch. That means he has less margin of error than a guy who is able to miss bats. He might be a good MLB pitcher, but the odds aren't going to be much, if any, better than it is for the other top arms. Anyway, I could care less if this team had another "Mike Leake." Even the Twins could afford a "Mike Leake" on the free agent market. With a top 10 pick, the goal should be to get someone you otherwise would have a hard time affording. As for the 'quick to the MLB' talk, even if it's true (cough cough Wimmers cough cough) so what? What's with the instant gratification? I don't want quick to the majors, I want All-Star, Cy Young and World Series MVP.

Either way, the Twins haven't been down to see Nola in a month but are all over most of the other top projected guys. I'm feeling pretty good that he's off the board.

Edited by nicksaviking, 29 May 2014 - 09:32 AM.


#24 Trevor0333

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 09:57 AM

Nola's upside is being downplayed. People are so afraid of the word safe given the FO history there's overreaction to Nola being tagged with the term "safe". I'd put his upside higher than Gibson who I view as a solid 2 in the future.

How great would it be if they took Nola & Hoffman fell to their 2nd pick.

#25 twinsfanstreif

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 10:32 AM

So we don't draft Kolek because he throws the ball too fast?


No the worry on Kolek is that he ONLY throws fast, he's really not much more than the 100+ fastball and he has control issues! Seth's point was that very few in history have been able to maintain that and without his FB he quickly becomes a bullpen guy

#26 tobi0040

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 10:42 AM

No the worry on Kolek is that he ONLY throws fast, he's really not much more than the 100+ fastball and he has control issues! Seth's point was that very few in history have been able to maintain that and without his FB he quickly becomes a bullpen guy


I would not be too worried about Kolek for a few reasons. First, he is 18 and throws 100. He is not the first guy with command issues or questions about his secondary offerings at that age. With improved command and an other pitch to emerge, you could have a front line starter. You just can't teach that kind of velocity.

If he needs Tommy John eventually and loses some velocity, 96-97 is OK too.

#27 Dman

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 10:46 AM

Im a bigger fan of Freeland than I am Nola. Mostly because I prefer the LHP, I think they are both very good college arms that can help the twins sooner than later.


I kind of like Freeland as well. I guess Newcomb and TT might have more upside but I like how Freeland attacks the zone, has good velocity and is a lefty who can miss bats. The competition he up against isn't as good but they said the same thing about Buxton. I like Freeland at #5 a lot, but then again I like almost any pitcher at #5.

#28 nicksaviking

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 10:52 AM

Nola's upside is being downplayed. People are so afraid of the word safe given the FO history there's overreaction to Nola being tagged with the term "safe". I'd put his upside higher than Gibson who I view as a solid 2 in the future.

How great would it be if they took Nola & Hoffman fell to their 2nd pick.


I think it's the opposite, actually, Nola's floor is being upplayed. I like Gibson, but he's not going to be a #2 pitcher with a 5.0-6.0 K/9 rate. He doesn't have the stuff to miss bats and it doesn't appear Nola does either. These guys at best look to be middle of the rotation guys and at #5 you can and should shoot for better than that.

#29 cmb0252

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 11:04 AM

People hated how the Twins always drafted control pitchers in the past but now want Freeland or Nola? I don't get it. Are people just looking at the current big league rotation and want a quick fix? This isn't the NBA or NFL.

#30 Seth Stohs

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 11:17 AM

No the worry on Kolek is that he ONLY throws fast, he's really not much more than the 100+ fastball and he has control issues! Seth's point was that very few in history have been able to maintain that and without his FB he quickly becomes a bullpen guy


Correct, and that he doesn't appear to have anything else.