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Brian Dozier 20/20? Sure. How about 30/30?

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#1 stringer bell

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Posted 18 May 2014 - 10:11 PM

Brian Dozier isn't going to hit 40 homers. He probably won't steal 40 bases either, but I would think he would be a lock to hit 20 long balls and steal 20 bags. How about 30/30? The PP points out that he has homered 28 times in one week short of a year, so that if he continued that pace for the last 120 games, he probably would make 30 long balls. 30 steals? As often as he is getting on, I would think that could be done, although if he is moved to another spot in the order, it may not make as much sense for him to run as often. I'm sure the Twins have had players hit 20+ homers and steal 20+ bases. Puckett, Larry Hisle come to mind as possibilities. I doubt anyone has gone 30/30. Could Brian Dozier be the first? It would be a great story.

#2 jokin

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Posted 18 May 2014 - 10:45 PM

Brian Dozier isn't going to hit 40 homers. He probably won't steal 40 bases either, but I would think he would be a lock to hit 20 long balls and steal 20 bags. How about 30/30? The PP points out that he has homered 28 times in one week short of a year, so that if he continued that pace for the last 120 games, he probably would make 30 long balls. 30 steals? As often as he is getting on, I would think that could be done,

although if he is moved to another spot in the order, it may not make as much sense for him to run as often.


I'm sure the Twins have had players hit 20+ homers and steal 20+ bases. Puckett, Larry Hisle come to mind as possibilities. I doubt anyone has gone 30/30. Could Brian Dozier be the first? It would be a great story.


Can you think of a scenario where Gardy moves Dozier out of the leadoff role?

Fuld?
Nunez?
Escobar?
Santana?
Mauer?

I don't see Gardy moving him in the order, unless Dozier's performance changes for the worst. I think 30/30 is possible, but the SB number is more likely to be achieved, he clearly has become an avid disciple of Molitor's mentoring, and his OBP looks sustainable enough to give him plenty of SB chances.....but I think that 30 HR mark is going to become a big challenge as more pitchers adjust to his power. 23 seems a more optimistically realistic number.

Still, it's incredibly encouraging that Dozier is now being compared to many of the Twins all-time greats.

#3 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 05:10 AM

I would think he'd need to bring the average up a bit and someone else who is high OBP would need to move into the leadoff spot... In a few years, we could be seeing Buxton, Mauer, Dozier if he keeps hitting those home runs...

#4 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 08:08 AM

Brian Dozier isn't going to hit 40 homers. He probably won't steal 40 bases either, but I would think he would be a lock to hit 20 long balls and steal 20 bags. How about 30/30? The PP points out that he has homered 28 times in one week short of a year, so that if he continued that pace for the last 120 games, he probably would make 30 long balls. 30 steals? As often as he is getting on, I would think that could be done, although if he is moved to another spot in the order, it may not make as much sense for him to run as often. I'm sure the Twins have had players hit 20+ homers and steal 20+ bases. Puckett, Larry Hisle come to mind as possibilities. I doubt anyone has gone 30/30. Could Brian Dozier be the first? It would be a great story.


I think Koskie in 01 was the closest - he had a 25/25 year. (I forgot that he had pretty good speed, and great speed for a corner infielder)

Puckett's closest was a 30+ homer, 20+ steal year in 86
Marty Cordova had a 20/20 his rookie season
Larry Hisle had a 25/20 season in 1977

4 doubles so far this year for Dozier - he had 33 last year, kind of surprised he doesn't have more doubles, but I guess they've been clearing the fence this year.

#5 longstrangetrip

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 08:50 AM

Great topic about a wonderful feel-good story. I find Dozier a really easy guy to cheer for. He appears to be a hard-nosed throwback kind of player, and also just seems to really enjoy playing the game. His post-game interviews are always a joy, and reflect a relaxed guy treasuring every moment in the big leagues.

He's also a guy who gives the impression that he is still learning, and continues to move his ceiling up in all facets of the game. Last year we watched him take a quantum leap defensively, and he continues to be one of the best defensive second baseman of the game. This year he has shown improvement in the offensive side of the game...patience, power, and base running.

Right now he projects to have 42 HRs and 46 steals by year end, so he would really have to fall off to not hit 30-30 (did I just jinx him?). His temperament doesn't seem to be the type that leads to a huge drop off...he appears to be all about consistency, and not the kind of guy who beats himself up during a mini slump.

It's also interesting to compare his numbers now to what he put up in the minors. His high totals for homers and steals were 9 and 24 in 2011. This tells me how the impact of big league coaching on a guy who desires to learn and improve like Dozier.

Truly a terrific story to watch unfold.

#6 drivlikejehu

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 08:58 AM

He's not going to hit 30 homers.

#7 Brandon

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 09:19 AM

This will be more fun to revisit around the all star break when we are half way through the season. I definitely see 25/25. I am not fully convinced of either the speed or power for a 30/30 at this time.

#8 kab21

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 11:09 AM

I think Koskie in 01 was the closest - he had a 25/25 year. (I forgot that he had pretty good speed, and great speed for a corner infielder)

Puckett's closest was a 30+ homer, 20+ steal year in 86
Marty Cordova had a 20/20 his rookie season
Larry Hisle had a 25/20 season in 1977

4 doubles so far this year for Dozier - he had 33 last year, kind of surprised he doesn't have more doubles, but I guess they've been clearing the fence this year.


I only found 5 Twins in the 20/20 club (could have missed one). Hunter is the only guy (2x) that you didn't mention and he did it twice. Versailles was the closest miss being one HR short.

Dozier is certainly going to fall off of his 30/30 pace. Those HR's are going to become doubles but the good news is that the rest of his stats say that he will be a good player. It will be interesting to see if Dozier is destined for a low BAPIP (like Hardy) or if he has actually been unlucky. If he has a normal BAPIP he picks up about 30+ pts of BA but he has a pretty low track record of low BAPIPs.

#9 amjgt

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 11:17 AM

This seems like as good a place as any to post this recent, really good, fangraphs article about Dozier's baserunning: http://www.fangraphs...o-brian-dozier/

#10 ashburyjohn

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 11:57 AM

This seems like as good a place as any to post this recent, really good, fangraphs article about Dozier's baserunning: http://www.fangraphs...o-brian-dozier/


I completely agree with this writeup. Dozier seems to have a huge baseball IQ, reflected in his making extremely good decisions on the basepaths early enough that he just proceeds with so much confidence that it's a joy to watch. He doesn't decide he's going to third when he is a couple of steps short of second base and sees how the outfielder is handling the ball, he makes the decision much earlier than that based I assume on careful study of the outfielder's tendencies and abilities.

#11 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 12:26 PM

I only found 5 Twins in the 20/20 club (could have missed one). Hunter is the only guy (2x) that you didn't mention and he did it twice. Versailles was the closest miss being one HR short.

Dozier is certainly going to fall off of his 30/30 pace. Those HR's are going to become doubles but the good news is that the rest of his stats say that he will be a good player. It will be interesting to see if Dozier is destined for a low BAPIP (like Hardy) or if he has actually been unlucky. If he has a normal BAPIP he picks up about 30+ pts of BA but he has a pretty low track record of low BAPIPs.



Oh right, Torii! I should've had a V-8.

The Twins haven't had many guys that mixed HR power and Speed. Chuck Knoblauch was a pretty prolific Doubles hitter and stole lots and lots of bases, never really hit for power.

If Dozier turns into a player like Knoblauch (with a little more power and little less speed) that would be pretty good for the Twins' future.