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Article: Twins Draft Preview: Mock Draft v.1.0

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#1 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 18 May 2014 - 09:10 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...ock-Draft-v-1-0

#2 Lonestar

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Posted 18 May 2014 - 09:18 PM

16. Arizona - Brandon Finnegan, RHP, TCU - How far does the short righty drop? For today, it's to Arizona.

Lefty? [Did you use crawford's cross-checker] And if he doesn't regain some luster in the college post season, he will drop farther than that after this weekend's start.

#3 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 18 May 2014 - 09:31 PM

Whoops. What's worse is that I was looking at a picture of him when I wrote that. (And coincidentally, finished my last drink of the night right around that point.)

#4 clutterheart

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Posted 18 May 2014 - 10:13 PM

I think the Cubs go Jackson, leaving the Twins with Gordon. I would be shocked if Hoffman is took in the top 5.

How did Toronto get 9 & 11?

Edited by clutterheart, 18 May 2014 - 10:22 PM.


#5 TRex

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Posted 18 May 2014 - 10:43 PM

How much under slot do you think the Cubs (or the Twins) could go in signing Hoffman?

#6 The Wise One

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Posted 18 May 2014 - 11:38 PM

I think the Cubs go Jackson, leaving the Twins with Gordon. I would be shocked if Hoffman is took in the top 5.

How did Toronto get 9 & 11?


Bickford I think did not sign last year so Toronto gets a pick this year for that one.

#7 benji21

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 12:54 AM

I think the wisest thing for the Twins to do would be to peg Hoffman with the pick. He has nearly as much upside as anyone in this draft and we're unlikely to be in this position again any time soon. Bonus: he'll already have TJ out of the way! I'm not overwhelmed by Jackson or Gordon by any means. It's said that Gordon projects to have an average bat with great athletecism. Does that excite any of you? And where have we seen that combo before? Oh that's right, every year at short for the twins. I digress, thoughts on Hoff at 5?

#8 mk

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 06:33 AM

Benji, I agree about the added bonus for Hoffman. Even with TJ he still probably reaches the majors before a high school SS or P. My dream is for Kolek to somehow fall to 5. But, I think Gordon is the guy. I've read/heard of an advanced plate approach, added muscle for better power, and a lock to stick at short with good instincts and a plus arm. A great consolation for a team searching for their first SS to go to multiple all-star games since Zoilo Versalles in 1965.

#9 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 06:54 AM

I was asked on Twitter last night was Gordon's ceiling and floor were. Defensively, he's going to be a plus-defender. There are more questions about his offense.

So maybe his ceiling is .285/.340/.400 or something Andrelton Simmons-like.
His floor is probably more .225/.280/.310 or something Pedro Florimon-like.

#10 tobi0040

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 07:37 AM

I was asked on Twitter last night was Gordon's ceiling and floor were. Defensively, he's going to be a plus-defender. There are more questions about his offense.

So maybe his ceiling is .285/.340/.400 or something Andrelton Simmons-like.
His floor is probably more .225/.280/.310 or something Pedro Florimon-like.


That floor scaes me when you are drafting #5 overall.

#11 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 07:49 AM

That floor scaes me when you are drafting #5 overall.


As it should, but it's a reminder that there are no guarantees. It could even be lower. Florimon was in the major leagues. Matt Bush and Tim Beckham (both #1s) never made it.

#12 markos

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 08:11 AM

That floor scaes me when you are drafting #5 overall.


The floor of every HS player is scary. Christopher Crawford just reviewed some of the top draft prospects of the past 10 years. http://insider.espn....ft/post?id=1674
Three past busts were very scary regarding some of the players in this year's class:

1) "[COLOR=#333333][FONT=verdana]considered a can’t-miss prep bat coming out of high school, as a right-handed hitter with tremendous bat speed and enough strength to project to have a plus-plus hit and power tool. Though he was a below-average athlete, he had quality hands and a plus arm, and he looked like a mainstay at the hot corner."[/FONT][/COLOR]
Sounds similar to Alex Jackson, but this was Josh Vitters. Drafted #3 in 2007, he has spent 8 years in the Cubs minor league system. He managed to rack up an impressive -1.4 WAR in just 108 PAs in 2012 for the Cubs. Career minor league walk rate of just 5.3%.

2) "[COLOR=#333333][FONT=verdana]in terms of pure stuff, few if any prep left-handers have shown better pitches and command in the last 10 years. He touched 95 mph with his fastball, and he also featured a filthy slider that could cause lefties and righties to swing and miss. Add in an above-average curveball, an average changeup from a clean delivery, along with an advanced ability to throw strikes, and you have a prospect who, on paper, seemed like a can't-miss star."[/FONT][/COLOR]
Brady Aiken? Nope, Tyler Matzek, who has yet to have a BB/9 less that 4.5.

College players aren't immune, either.
3) "[COLOR=#333333][FONT=verdana]left-hander with a fastball that touched 96 mph and a slider that flashed plus-plus with hard, late tilt, many thought he would be an ace."
[/FONT][/COLOR]Rodon? Nope, Andrew Miller, who only found success in the majors as a left-handed specialist after failing as a starter.

If Gordon's floor is Florimon, then Jackson's floor is Vitters, which might be worse.

#13 tobi0040

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 08:22 AM

The floor of every HS player is scary. Christopher Crawford just reviewed some of the top draft prospects of the past 10 years. http://insider.espn....ft/post?id=1674
Three past busts were very scary regarding some of the players in this year's class:

1) "[COLOR=#333333][FONT=verdana]considered a can’t-miss prep bat coming out of high school, as a right-handed hitter with tremendous bat speed and enough strength to project to have a plus-plus hit and power tool. Though he was a below-average athlete, he had quality hands and a plus arm, and he looked like a mainstay at the hot corner."[/FONT][/COLOR]
Sounds similar to Alex Jackson, but this was Josh Vitters. Drafted #3 in 2007, he has spent 8 years in the Cubs minor league system. He managed to rack up an impressive -1.4 WAR in just 108 PAs in 2012 for the Cubs. Career minor league walk rate of just 5.3%.

2) "[COLOR=#333333][FONT=verdana]in terms of pure stuff, few if any prep left-handers have shown better pitches and command in the last 10 years. He touched 95 mph with his fastball, and he also featured a filthy slider that could cause lefties and righties to swing and miss. Add in an above-average curveball, an average changeup from a clean delivery, along with an advanced ability to throw strikes, and you have a prospect who, on paper, seemed like a can't-miss star."[/FONT][/COLOR]
Brady Aiken? Nope, Tyler Matzek, who has yet to have a BB/9 less that 4.5.

College players aren't immune, either.
3) "[COLOR=#333333][FONT=verdana]left-hander with a fastball that touched 96 mph and a slider that flashed plus-plus with hard, late tilt, many thought he would be an ace."
[/FONT][/COLOR]Rodon? Nope, Andrew Miller, who only found success in the majors as a left-handed specialist after failing as a starter.

If Gordon's floor is Florimon, then Jackson's floor is Vitters, which might be worse.


Sure, every player can flame out and not make the big show. Absolutely, nobody is can't miss. Delmon Young was can't miss. Brandon Wood was a top prospect. Andy Marte. But the reason Gordons floor scares me is that he offensive ceiling is Simmons. Simmons is not a good hitter. In over 900 at bats, his OPS is .710.

Jackson has been described as the highest likelihood to consistently hit 35 HR a year.

#14 mike wants wins

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 08:49 AM

Jackson, Gordon, or Touki (can't recall how to spell the last name) are my preferences. "best breaking ball" is a good tool to have.
Lighten up Francis....

#15 tobi0040

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 08:50 AM

Jackson, Gordon, or Touki (can't recall how to spell the last name) are my preferences. "best breaking ball" is a good tool to have.


My 3 are Freeland, Jackson, and Touki in order.

#16 gunnarthor

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 09:05 AM

I think Gordon probably makes the most sense. A lot of draft rankers have him in the 4-7 range, he's very likely to stick at short, which is a organizational weakness. Very likely the BPA when they pick and he'll likely sign for a little less than others so they save money.

(That said, if one of the other four (Aiken, Rodon, Kolek or Jackson) fall, I'd hope we grab them.)

But Gordon isn't really a sexy pick and it'll be years before he makes the majors so it's a bit boring. I'd be ok with either of the two college arms - Nola/Freeland - or if the Twins went a little risky with Touki.

#17 mike wants wins

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 09:07 AM

From what I've read, Gordon should move quickly for a HSer. "very advanced approach" is the quote I recall.
Lighten up Francis....

#18 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 09:18 AM

But the reason Gordons floor scares me is that he offensive ceiling is Simmons. Simmons is not a good hitter. In over 900 at bats, his OPS is .710


Simmons was a pop-up guy who spent one year at a JC and got less than 1000 minor league ABs. He's only 24 and has less than 1000 MLB plate appearances. There's still projection left. I don't see either as .300 hitters, but a little below.

Heck, the easy comp to make is Dee Gordon, who's playing out of his mind, and only has a .750 OPS. Granted, Nick will have more pop and Dee will have more speed. Though it won't be big-time home run power and I'd think Dee's speed probably allows him to take extra bases and it might all even out in the end anyway.

#19 LewFordLives

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 10:54 AM

I'd like to see the Twins go with one of the college arms that will be available to them (Nola, Freeland, Beede). I still think pitching is a weakness for this organization. At AAA and AA we have Meyer and then a bunch of guys who don't project to be front of the rotation starters. Of the guys at A ball or Rookie, (Berrios, Stewart, Lee, Gonsalves, Thorpe)....the reality is that some will get hurt and others will have difficulty adjusting to higher competition. The Twins rolled the dice on a prep arm last year. Outside of Rodon, they should have their pick of the top college pitchers this year.

#20 mike wants wins

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 11:00 AM

There are more holes in this system than can be counted. The MLB is starting SS in the OF because they have no OF in Minnesota or AAA or AA right now. There are no SS anyone loves in the system. BPA.....

#21 cmb0252

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 11:20 AM

Simmons was a pop-up guy who spent one year at a JC and got less than 1000 minor league ABs. He's only 24 and has less than 1000 MLB plate appearances. There's still projection left. I don't see either as .300 hitters, but a little below.

Heck, the easy comp to make is Dee Gordon, who's playing out of his mind, and only has a .750 OPS. Granted, Nick will have more pop and Dee will have more speed. Though it won't be big-time home run power and I'd think Dee's speed probably allows him to take extra bases and it might all even out in the end anyway.


I do agree that Simmons has a little project left hut even if Simmons doesn't advance any more he was worth 6.9 WAR last year (baseball reference) and finished 14th in NL MVP voting. He would have been the best player on the Twins last year. 100 MPH pitchers and 30HR middle of the order batters are sexy but not more valuable.

One other thing to note is while Dee is faster he has now been moved to second base because of his poor feel for the position/poor arm. Gordon won't have either of those problems.

#22 tobi0040

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 11:29 AM

I do agree that Simmons has a little project left hut even if Simmons doesn't advance any more he was worth 6.9 WAR last year (baseball reference) and finished 14th in NL MVP voting. He would have been the best player on the Twins last year. 100 MPH pitchers and 30HR middle of the order batters are sexy but not more valuable.

One other thing to note is while Dee is faster he has now been moved to second base because of his poor feel for the position/poor arm. Gordon won't have either of those problems.


Simmons WAR to date has been 8 defensively and 3.4 offensively (in 3 seasons). He is a once in a decade defensive talent. Nobody is saying Gordon is going to be a once in a decade talent defensively.

So you are back to a ceiling of a .710 OPS. Here are my two cents, couldn't we trade for Didi and get this production? He is supposed to be a good defensive player with not a huge bat. What would we have to give up for Didi? I am guessing something good, but not equivalent to the 5th pick in the draft. So I would trade something less for Didi and take Jackson or a top arm.

Edited by tobi0040, 19 May 2014 - 11:32 AM.


#23 Willihammer

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 11:32 AM

Simmons' 2013 will go down as one of the all time greatest seasons in history from a defensive standpoint. Its not reasonable to project that sort of upside year in and out, even from Simmons I think.

Going back to 2007, JJ Hardy leads SS's with 103 runs saved. Not even 15 per year. Brendan Ryan is next at 80.5.

#24 cmb0252

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 11:53 AM

Simmons WAR to date has been 8 defensively and 3.4 offensively (in 3 seasons). He is a once in a decade defensive talent. Nobody is saying Gordon is going to be a once in a decade talent defensively.

So you are back to a ceiling of a .710 OPS. Here are my two cents, couldn't we trade for Didi and get this production? He is supposed to be a good defensive player with not a huge bat. What would we have to give up for Didi? I am guessing something good, but not equivalent to the 5th pick in the draft. So I would trade something less for Didi and take Jackson or a top arm.

I don't believe I have ever compared Gordon to Simmons. I was just throwing in my two cents about the original post. If I was going to I would definitely agree with you that while Gordon profiles as a plus defender Simmons is a plus-plus defender. Still, if his offensive numbers are similar and he is worth half as much WAR on defense as Simmons that still makes him a 3.5+ WAR player.

As for Didi, I was for a trade before the season and I'm for a trade now. Your guess is as good as mine to what he will cost but let's not act like they are similar players just because of OPS. Gordon should be a plus defender at SS while Didi was pretty much league average last year.

#25 TexTwinsFan

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 11:55 AM

Part of me is intrigued by Gordon, but I'm deathly afraid that if the Twins take him we'll be hearing about a SS prospect for four years instead of having a major league quality SS on the big club next year. Barring a miracle, SS needs to be the Twins #1 priority in Free Agency during the coming off-season.

#26 tobi0040

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 12:08 PM

I don't believe I have ever compared Gordon to Simmons. I was just throwing in my two cents about the original post. If I was going to I would definitely agree with you that while Gordon profiles as a plus defender Simmons is a plus-plus defender. Still, if his offensive numbers are similar and he is worth half as much WAR on defense as Simmons that still makes him a 3.5+ WAR player.

As for Didi, I was for a trade before the season and I'm for a trade now. Your guess is as good as mine to what he will cost but let's not act like they are similar players just because of OPS. Gordon should be a plus defender at SS while Didi was pretty much league average last year.


Here is my point, half of Simmons WAR last year would be 230th or so, of all time, for any position.

http://www.baseball-...ef_season.shtml

#27 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 12:41 PM

What would we have to give up for Didi? I am guessing something good, but not equivalent to the 5th pick in the draft. So I would trade something less for Didi and take Jackson or a top arm.


It took the 3rd overall pick in the 2011 draft for the Diamondbacks to get Didi.

Anyway, I think we're splitting hairs over these comps. Maybe there's better ones out there, those were just the two that came to my mind. Feel free to throw any out there that you might have.

#28 Twins Twerp

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 12:42 PM

I dont think hoffman gets picked in top 20 picks. Too much risk and tommy john is not an automatic. He will lose this year And most of next meaning he would be in Cedar Rapids as a 25 year old college pitcher.

I see the cubs takin a college arm who is healthy. I still think top 3 pitchers are off the board and twins choice comes down to nola (if cubs dont nab him), Jackson, or Gordon. Gordon plays premium position and Jackson might play premium position. I think Gordon is the choice...as do many of the pundits who hear rumors about an underslot deal. I would be ok with all 3!

#29 cmb0252

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 01:10 PM

Relooking over your draft mock and looking at Garrioch's/Crawford's today it just reminds me of how deep this draft is. While there are guys I prefer at #5 I honestly would be fine with about 10+ players. As you noted with Pentecost pick, teams are going to get a few steals. Also, more than last year I'm truly interested with who the Twins take in the second round. Could definitely get a first round type talent. Only 17 more days!

#30 nicksaviking

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 01:14 PM

I dont think hoffman gets picked in top 20 picks. Too much risk and tommy john is not an automatic. He will lose this year And most of next meaning he would be in Cedar Rapids as a 25 year old college pitcher.


He had surgery in early May, I'd think he'd be able to pitch most of next year. In fact the start of the rookie leagues would line up pretty good with a return.

I'm not advocating a Hoffman pick but I wonder how much underslot you could get him for now. I want BPA, but those who like the idea of going underslot and saving money for a high upside HS kid in round 2, Hoffman may be your guy.