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Revere trade revisited

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#41 Riverbrian

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 07:22 PM

Revere
2013 UZR -2.6
2014 UZR -2.6, UZR/150: -9.6


What was it in 2012 and what was it in 2011?

How did his Ultimate Zone Rating differ between his time in CF LF or RF?

Defensive stats are half cooked. I'm sorry... I don't belong to that church.

#42 Riverbrian

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 07:41 PM

I wouldn't. Revere and Hicks have an identical -0.2 WAR. At least Hicks is on the upswing right now.


Last year around this time... Revere was struggling and then he stopped struggling.

In 2012... If I remember right... Revere started off hot as a pistol and everyone was so surprised and then he cooled off and everyone went... See told you so... and then he picked it up again.

1,542 PA's and he still hasn't increased his walk totals... I admit that concerns me but he still puts the ball in play at a high rate and he still can run better than 98 percent of all players and his defense is extroidanary.

If UZR says different... I believe its wrong. And UZR is a component of WAR.

#43 kblack1011

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 07:50 PM

Wasn't Hicks 2013 UZR -6.9, UZR/150 -11.0?

#44 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 07:52 PM

I don't belong to that church.


Religion vs. science? :)

#45 Willihammer

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 08:25 PM

I liked Revere, I wanted to extend him. But he is stinking up the place this year, I wonder if something is wrong. I wouldn't write him off yet.

The winner of the trade is still very much TBD.

#46 kab21

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 09:07 PM

That was Radcliff's last draft. He was known for drafting based on signability as much as (or more than) ability. Revere agreed to a $750K signing bonus, which was about half of those before and after him in the draft. He was not projected to go until the third round.


The Revere pick partly had to do with signability but it also had to with the Twins really liking him and the fact that their 2nd pick was #92 (Danny Rams). He might have been available but that was a risk.

#47 tobi0040

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 09:17 PM

The Revere pick partly had to do with signability but it also had to with the Twins really liking him and the fact that their 2nd pick was #92 (Danny Rams). He might have been available but that was a risk.


Between Revere and Rams, we really knocked it out of the park.

#48 tobi0040

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 09:18 PM

What was it in 2012 and what was it in 2011?

How did his Ultimate Zone Rating differ between his time in CF LF or RF?

Defensive stats are half cooked. I'm sorry... I don't belong to that church.


My personal opinion is most of the numbers, like defensive WAR have the direction right. The guys with the biggest WAR are the best and lowest the worst. But they over-estimate the importance.

#49 cmathewson

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 10:08 PM

What was it in 2012 and what was it in 2011?

How did his Ultimate Zone Rating differ between his time in CF LF or RF?

Defensive stats are half cooked. I'm sorry... I don't belong to that church.


He was much better in RF for the Twins. His CF numbers were ordinary in small samples. Since going to the Phillies, he's been below average. I'm just citing numbers to back up what the Phillies fans are saying.
"If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

#50 kab21

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 10:26 PM

Between Revere and Rams, we really knocked it out of the park.


Your expectations are too high. Revere was a late rd pick that is at worst a below average MLB'er. His BA will rebound and this hating on him will cease. And he netted the Twins a solid pitching prospect and a guy that should have been a solid starter. That is a pretty good return for a late rd pick but the fundamental flaw is that the pick lacks upside beyond that of average regular.

As far as Rams goes he was almost pick 100. These guys usually don't work out and he had some solid upside.

#51 ashburyjohn

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 11:35 PM

Your expectations are too high.


I looked up the next year's draft in preparation to say something snarky, but #28 was Gerit Cole who's turning out pretty good, and #92 was Bobby Lanigan, who was chosen by our own Twins and thus rules out the comparison to other teams. Rats. :)

#52 Riverbrian

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 07:09 AM

He was much better in RF for the Twins. His CF numbers were ordinary in small samples. Since going to the Phillies, he's been below average. I'm just citing numbers to back up what the Phillies fans are saying.


UZR from year to year is a ping pong ball. Yet... UZR is the most quoted defensive stat. You don't see people using 3 year samples. They use less than a year of data and try to pass it off as gospel... I don't belong to that church.

UZR stats for 2014 are telling me that Trevor Plouffe (2.1) has more range than Brett Lawrie (-0.1)

Carlos Gomez went from 4.8 to 24.4 to -0.4... From 2012 to 2014.

Defensive Metrics will mean a lot more to me when they stabilize. They don't mean much until they do.

#53 tobi0040

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 07:30 AM

Your expectations are too high. Revere was a late rd pick that is at worst a below average MLB'er. His BA will rebound and this hating on him will cease. And he netted the Twins a solid pitching prospect and a guy that should have been a solid starter. That is a pretty good return for a late rd pick but the fundamental flaw is that the pick lacks upside beyond that of average regular.

As far as Rams goes he was almost pick 100. These guys usually don't work out and he had some solid upside.


You should be able to play it safe in the first round and draft a low ceiling guy that pans out to a bad MLB player. He has 47 extra base hits in 1,550 at bats. It isn't as much about results, it was that we wanted to use our 1st round pick to save money and took a guy that most had as a 2nd or 3rd round pick in the first round.

The five guys drafted in front of Revere all signed for about $1.2M. Rick Porcello was drafted #27 and signed for $3.5M. You have to get to pick 41 to see someone who signed for less.

The process is the irritating part. A lot of these guys have been busts, but at least they bought a ticket for the drawing.

http://www.perfectga...px?article=1314

#54 spycake

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 08:40 AM

I wouldn't. Revere and Hicks have an identical -0.2 WAR. At least Hicks is on the upswing right now.


I wouldn't trade Hicks for him, but if Philadelphia wanted to dump his salary, I would offer something else. Revere could free Hicks to play everyday in AAA for awhile, and would be an upgrade over Fuld as a 4th OF too. If Arcia and Willingham ever come back, he'd be our best pinch running and defensive replacement option too.

Of course, Philadelphia is not going to trade him, at least not as a salary dump. Their backup CF in MLB is Tony Gwynn Jr; in AAA, Clete Thomas. And no MLB team would ever turn to Clete Thomas to be their starting CF. :)

#55 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 08:45 AM

Revere could free Hicks to play everyday in AAA for awhile, and would be an upgrade over Fuld as a 4th OF too.


I'd take him for free but only because the Twins' OF situation is so barren.

Given Revere's slide this season, it's not guaranteed that he's an upgrade over either Hicks or Fuld. I might pick him up to help Hicks develop in AAA but that's it.

#56 kab21

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 08:56 AM

I looked up the next year's draft in preparation to say something snarky, but #28 was Gerit Cole who's turning out pretty good, and #92 was Bobby Lanigan, who was chosen by our own Twins and thus rules out the comparison to other teams. Rats. :)


And not even the Yankees were able to sign Cole that year.

#57 kab21

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 08:57 AM

You should be able to play it safe in the first round and draft a low ceiling guy that pans out to a bad MLB player. He has 47 extra base hits in 1,550 at bats. It isn't as much about results, it was that we wanted to use our 1st round pick to save money and took a guy that most had as a 2nd or 3rd round pick in the first round.

The five guys drafted in front of Revere all signed for about $1.2M. Rick Porcello was drafted #27 and signed for $3.5M. You have to get to pick 41 to see someone who signed for less.

The process is the irritating part. A lot of these guys have been busts, but at least they bought a ticket for the drawing.

http://www.perfectga...px?article=1314


This is basically exactly what I said in the last sentence (conclusion) of the paragraph that you quoted.

#58 spycake

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 09:13 AM

Given Revere's slide this season, it's not guaranteed that he's an upgrade over either Hicks or Fuld. I might pick him up to help Hicks develop in AAA but that's it.


His slide? Over 142 PA, he's 2 singles off from his career AVG. 5 singles off from his career high AVG. (Admittedly, he's also off on his OBP and SLG paces, but we're talking small margins there too -- he has 3 BB when he should have 5, 0 2B instead of... 2.)

Again, I wouldn't give up much for him, but he's not worthless to us (or to the Phillies, which is why he's unlikely to be traded).

#59 TheLeviathan

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 04:23 PM

UZR has to be the most misused advanced stat in baseball. And of the top 10 I bet at least 9 of them are defensive stats.

To this thread, I liked the trade at the time and still do. It was the right move and good value at the time, it's unfair to judge it much past that.

#60 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 06:36 PM

His slide? Over 142 PA, he's 2 singles off from his career AVG. 5 singles off from his career high AVG. (Admittedly, he's also off on his OBP and SLG paces, but we're talking small margins there too -- he has 3 BB when he should have 5, 0 2B instead of... 2.)


Dude, his OPS is .110 lower than it was last season and he was a below average bat last season.

Hicks has been quite a bit better at the plate in 2014. That's how bad Revere has been thus far.