Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.

MinnCentric Forums


Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Photo

Kubel's Increasing K-Rate

  • Please log in to reply
33 replies to this topic

#1 jorgenswest

jorgenswest

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,339 posts

Posted 10 May 2014 - 08:46 AM

Jason Kubel has enough plate appearances to pass the sample size threshold for strike out rate and walk rate.

[TABLE="width: 500"]


K-Rate
BB-Rate


2011 MIN
21.4%
8.0%


2012 ARI
26.4%
10.0%


2013 ARI/CLE
31.7%
10.0%


2014 MIN (through 5/9/14)
34.1%
9.3%

[/TABLE]

When signed this winter, it was reasonable to believe that last year's struggles were related to injury. Is it still reasonable?

#2 stringer bell

stringer bell

    Shaking the rust off................my golf game

  • Twins Mods
  • 6,175 posts
  • LocationZumbrota MN

Posted 10 May 2014 - 09:31 AM

Distressing. I thought perhaps it was because he had faced so many left handed pitchers, but he's actually fanned more often versus right handers. Not promising.

#3 JB_Iowa

JB_Iowa

    Let's Keep Winning!

  • Members
  • 5,968 posts
  • LocationNorthwest Iowa

Posted 10 May 2014 - 09:46 AM

Legs.

How much does Kubel's increasing play in the field contribute to his declining value at the plate?

I'm not good at manipulating the stats but it sure seems like he's been in the field a lot more recently than he was the first couple weeks of the season.


Edit:
Okay, I found something on BRef that makes it look like he has played 29 games out of 32 in the OF (26 in LF and 3 in RF) -- so he has actually been on the field a lot more than I thought.

I still wonder if part of his problem is that his legs need a break.


Edit 2: And it looks like he will get a break today at least. Nunez in left and Mauer at DH.

Edited by JB_Iowa, 10 May 2014 - 09:53 AM.


#4 AScheib50

AScheib50

    Member

  • Members
  • 63 posts

Posted 10 May 2014 - 09:53 AM

At this point, would anyone be on board with Kubel being the guy to go when both Arcia and Willingham return? If Parmalee keeps his head above water this time around you have to think he won't clear waivers. I'm hoping when Arcia returns Gardy uses an outfield of Arcia Hicks Parmalee with a DH platoon (of sorts) of Colabello and Kubel.

#5 Brandon

Brandon

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,097 posts

Posted 10 May 2014 - 10:03 AM

Kubel is definitely slumping after his hot start. So is Colabello, Plouffe, and Pinto. When Willingham and Arcia return it will be interesting to see how the playing time gets divvied up.


1B Mauer, Parmelee, Colabello
LF Willingham, Kubel
RF Arcia, Parmelee, Colabello, Kubel
DH Colabello, Kubel, Pinto, Parmelee

I don't think they will release Kubel (though I admit it is still possible) but he could see less playing time. We will have to send 1 player out though if no one is injured. Likely Colabello or Arcia since they both have options or Parmelee if he really is terrible. We will have to go back to 12 pitchers though.

2B Dozier
1B Mauer
3B Plouffe
LF Willingham
DH Colabello
RF Arcia
C Suzuki
CF Hicks
SS Escobar
bench Parmelee, Kubel, Pinto, Fuld, Santana = (1 too many on the bench)

Edited by Brandon, 10 May 2014 - 10:13 AM.


#6 Kelly Vance

Kelly Vance

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 36 posts

Posted 10 May 2014 - 10:22 AM

Kubel is what I call a stuborn hitter. He tries to pull everything. That's why he pulls his head and is a fish for the outside strike. Cola started trying to pull everything as well, which not surprisingly concided with his slump. There is a danger when you have a hot streak. You stop going with what worked and start trying to hit everything out of the park. Almost always this results in pulling your head and pulling the bat away from pitches out over the plate.

Edited by Kelly Vance, 10 May 2014 - 10:25 AM.


#7 drock2190

drock2190

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 498 posts

Posted 10 May 2014 - 10:52 AM

I remember in spring training, he was striking out a ton as well and that was against some inferior pitchers. So I'm not really surprised.

#8 Hosken Bombo Disco

Hosken Bombo Disco

    Toledo Mud Hens

  • Members
  • 2,807 posts

Posted 10 May 2014 - 11:27 AM

I wasn't exactly in favor of bringing Kubel aboard but I'm pulling for him.

He did say he had a lot of baseball left in him, so I'm not completely buying the weak legs excuse that I'm starting to hear. We're only in May! I do think he should get the occasional day off though.

#9 Craig Arko

Craig Arko

    Kepler 425b or bust

  • Members
  • 3,256 posts
  • LocationEarth
  • Twitter: crarko

Posted 10 May 2014 - 11:34 AM

It might be instructive to normalize the data vs. league averages over the same time frame. It seems like strikeouts have been climbing across the board, and the variance between Kubel's rate and everybody else's might be useful. It also might not, but looking at numbers in a vacuum isn't going to tell the whole story. It might even be worse than it looks. Or it might just reflect a trend.

Mongo only pawn in game of life.


#10 Mr. Brooks

Mr. Brooks

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,521 posts

Posted 10 May 2014 - 11:39 AM

League average K rates, '11 through '14:

2011: 18.6
2012: 19.8
2013: 19.9
2014: 20.5

#11 chuchadoro

chuchadoro

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 113 posts
  • LocationNordeast

Posted 10 May 2014 - 11:56 AM

League average K rates, '11 through '14:

2011: 18.6
2012: 19.8
2013: 19.9
2014: 20.5


Kubel's K rate has increased at roughly 6X the rate of the league average. I think that answers crarko's question.
He's a No Limit Dozier, I thought I told ya!

#12 Craig Arko

Craig Arko

    Kepler 425b or bust

  • Members
  • 3,256 posts
  • LocationEarth
  • Twitter: crarko

Posted 10 May 2014 - 12:00 PM

Kubel's K rate has increased at roughly 6X the rate of the league average. I think that answers crarko's question.


It looks like retiring and becoming an umpire is a realistic possibility.

Mongo only pawn in game of life.


#13 jorgenswest

jorgenswest

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,339 posts

Posted 10 May 2014 - 12:09 PM

I think I would need to take out pitcher strike outs in the NL so I did check AL numbers in 2011 and 2014. They have increased from 18% to 19.7%. Kubel 21.4% to 34.1%.

I do not think lasts year's abysmal performance can be written off to injury. Kubel's skill has changed.

#14 Kelly Vance

Kelly Vance

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 36 posts

Posted 10 May 2014 - 12:11 PM

Just saw Cola strike out looking on an outside pitch after trying to pull a pitch on the outside corner (strike 2). I wonder if he needs glasses

#15 Sconnie

Sconnie

    Tatertots R good

  • Members
  • 1,877 posts
  • LocationNW Wisconsin

Posted 10 May 2014 - 12:17 PM

It looks like retiring and becoming an umpire is a realistic possibility.

because he can't see anymore?

#16 Craig Arko

Craig Arko

    Kepler 425b or bust

  • Members
  • 3,256 posts
  • LocationEarth
  • Twitter: crarko

Posted 10 May 2014 - 12:32 PM

because he can't see anymore?


Yes, it could be an ocular motor dysfunction.

Mongo only pawn in game of life.


#17 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 7,463 posts

Posted 10 May 2014 - 12:50 PM

File this under "not surprisingly".

#18 Hosken Bombo Disco

Hosken Bombo Disco

    Toledo Mud Hens

  • Members
  • 2,807 posts

Posted 10 May 2014 - 12:55 PM

Yes, it could be an ocular motor dysfunction.


For a moment I thought you were blaming Kubel's strikeouts on the umpires but now I realize you are diagnosing a medical condition instead :)

#19 Craig Arko

Craig Arko

    Kepler 425b or bust

  • Members
  • 3,256 posts
  • LocationEarth
  • Twitter: crarko

Posted 10 May 2014 - 01:23 PM

For a moment I thought you were blaming Kubel's strikeouts on the umpires but now I realize you are diagnosing a medical condition instead :)


Diagnose? No, merely suggest. I have a similar affliction, which manifests whenever picking up a bat.

Mongo only pawn in game of life.


#20 Guest_USAFChief_*

Guest_USAFChief_*
  • Guests

Posted 10 May 2014 - 02:09 PM

Kubel is what I call a stuborn hitter. He tries to pull everything.

Ted Williams had the same problem.