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Article: Will Trevor Plouffe's Hot Start Continue?

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#1 Parker Hageman

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Posted 09 May 2014 - 03:04 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...rt-Will-It-Last

"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time." -- Jim Bouton, "Ball Four"


#2 Jerr

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Posted 09 May 2014 - 04:33 PM

Great breakdown and graphics!!!
Nice to be on a site with such wise baseball fans, as I can learn so much!!!

#3 Halsey Hall

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Posted 09 May 2014 - 05:15 PM

That's really cool how you put those graphics together.

Of course, I think he'll go down rapidly. His defense seems better though, but maybe that's just my impression for what games I have seen.

#4 Badsmerf

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Posted 09 May 2014 - 08:03 PM

He will adjust. I'm sure they have figured out what is going on by now. Plouffe just has to adjust accordingly. I think he just needs to get aggressive early in the count again. I love that the Twins have a guy like Plouffe that gives us something to talk about on the way to a 90 loss season for the 4th or 5th season (who's counting anyway).

#5 DuluthFan

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Posted 09 May 2014 - 08:15 PM

[FONT=Arial]In 2012, Plouffe gained attention by hitting roughly 750 home runs (estimate) in June and July.[/FONT]


That must be a record!

#6 Sconnie

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Posted 09 May 2014 - 10:08 PM

Well written with great illustration. Thanks Parker. I think Plouffe will adjust as well. He has shown the ability to adjust in the past, and the season is still young.

#7 twinsfaninsaudi

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Posted 10 May 2014 - 08:26 AM

When and if Mauer, Willingham, and Arcia are all back does Plouffe continue to bat third?

#8 Thrylos

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Posted 10 May 2014 - 09:17 AM

[FONT=Arial]Prior to May, Plouffe chased after 15.5% of pitches out of the zone, says ESPN/TruMedia. This month he’s expanded this region and offered at 26.7% of all out-of-zone pitches.

[/FONT]

May is small sample size ;)

here is Plouffe's annual out of zone swinging percentage:

2010 - 46%
2011 - 29.4%
2012 - 26.8%
2013 - 26.2%
2014 - 18.8%

Normal progression. He is 27. It usually happens. It is called "maturing as a hitting", "reaching his prime", etc. Totally normal and there is no reason that it should not continue until he reaches his peak :)

#9 jimbo92107

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Posted 10 May 2014 - 09:25 AM

Since we know everybody in baseball has these same heat maps, then it becomes like a game of poker, except it's zone hitting. Plouffe needs to learn to cut the outside pitches out of his trigger zone temporarily. This will result in some walks and some standing strikeouts. However, once he sees a pitcher starting to throw a lot of outside strikes, then he needs to pounce on one of those outside pitches, thus creating doubt about that strategy.

Plouffe seems like a pretty smart guy, and he's got a lot of smart coaches. He'll adjust.

#10 h2oface

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 01:04 PM

Thanks for the great article and graphics. I really enjoy them both. It seems that Plouffe's hot start has been over for a couple of weeks now, though. If he gets back to how he started, it will be a rebound, and not a continued "hot start".

#11 TheLeviathan

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 03:47 PM

It appears it's over officially. Now can it be regained is the better question.

#12 Riverbrian

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 06:38 PM

Prior to May, Plouffe chased after 15.5% of pitches out of the zone, says ESPN/TruMedia. This month he’s expanded this region and offered at 26.7% of all out-of-zone pitches.

Bingo... This has been his problem in the past and this is his problem during the current slump.

If he fixes this... We got ourselves a great ball player.

Also... Props to his defense in 2014. He's been much more engaged... In my opinion.

#13 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 07:04 PM

Also... Props to his defense in 2014. He's been much more engaged... In my opinion.


You are right. Other than that one game, he's been doing a pretty good job in the field.

#14 Winston Smith

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Posted 12 May 2014 - 08:40 AM

The guy is hitting .239 with an ops of .706 and we want to give the guy a parade?

#15 spycake

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Posted 12 May 2014 - 09:29 AM

The guy is hitting .239 with an ops of .706 and we want to give the guy a parade?


It was really weird timing for this article. May as well ask if Colabello's hot start will last now? Or Kubel's? Or Gibson's?

That said, I am not too worried about Plouffe. Looks like he could be a .700 OPS player even without the HR binges, that's probably a little under recent average for 3B but not too bad, and his defense looks average/acceptable. He's not a #3 hitter, of course.

#16 Parker Hageman

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Posted 12 May 2014 - 09:50 AM

Guys -- The beginning was explaining the fast start, the last two paragraphs explain the production drop. Read from beginning to end please.

#17 twinsguy14

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Posted 12 May 2014 - 10:08 AM

Guys -- The beginning was explaining the fast start, the last two paragraphs explain the production drop. Read from beginning to end please.

Don't we wish everyone would read past just what they want to read? Nice article.

#18 spycake

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Posted 12 May 2014 - 12:44 PM

Guys -- The beginning was explaining the fast start, the last two paragraphs explain the production drop. Read from beginning to end please.


Parker, I did read the article fully. Your final paragraph conclusion that "he is almost certain to see his numbers fall" is still pretty odd, since his numbers had already fallen by the time you published this. (I am guessing you started researching/writing this a week or so earlier, when his OPS was closer to .900 than .700!)

And you have to admit the title of the article likewise doesn't make much sense, given that the production drop was already there -- his hot streak can't "last" or "continue" if it's already over!

But, that's mostly nit-picking. Definitely appreciate your research and analysis -- you really offer an in-depth look at the Twins that isn't available from other writers, even here at Twins Daily.

#19 Parker Hageman

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Posted 12 May 2014 - 02:45 PM

Your final paragraph conclusion that "he is almost certain to see his numbers fall" is still pretty odd, since his numbers had already fallen by the time you published this.


Pretty odd or pretty spot on? He was at 769 OPS at the time of research and has gone 0-for-12. Numbers fell.

~ Sincerely, the prognosticator of prognosticators.

And you have to admit the title of the article likewise doesn't make much sense, given that the production drop was already there -- his hot streak can't "last" or "continue" if it's already over!


At the time, he was in the middle of a speed bump -- after all, when research began he had just come off a 5-for-17 stretch with 3 doubles. Now, of course, he's in the middle of an 0-for-20 stretch so it looking considerably worse. Much of what we are seeing is due to the things pointed out in the final two paragraphs -- teams adjusted, he hasn't adjusted.

I'm biased of course, but it is more relevant than ever.

#20 Parker Hageman

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Posted 12 May 2014 - 03:28 PM

@spycake -- To be clear, I understand what you are saying.