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#1 stringer bell

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 08:46 PM

The Twins are 4-0 in rubber games. I heard yesterday that they are 1-9 in series openers. If you had heard that after 29 games, that Dozier and Plouffe would have combined for 15 doubles and nine homers, who would have guessed the distribution? Plouffe has 14 doubles and a solitary homer, while Dozier has only one double, but has clubbed 8 homers.

In checking team statistics, the team is still second in run scoring (per game), while allowing the third-most runs in the American League.

Finally, here's my first All-Star watch: Brian Dozier is #1 in OPS among AL second basemen and Trevor Plouffe and Kurt Suzuki are #2 at their respective positions.

#2 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 09:20 PM

These are indeed oddities.

I am especially surprised that we've not seen home runs from Plouffe.
If someone had told me he would have 1 home run this late into the season I would have thought it was because he wasn't getting much playing time.

I like it that he leads MLB in doubles, of course.
The home runs will start to appear.

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#3 Willihammer

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 09:34 PM

I am happy to eat crow over the Suzuki signing. He's put together some good AB's, all year really.

#4 grady.hughes

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 10:44 PM

Hey guys...long time lurker here. Love the site...

Speaking of Dozier, always been a fan! But is he really suited for the lead off spot? With the home run production, shouldn't he be down in the order?? Guess they don't really have a better option for the #1 spot.

#5 Reider

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 02:40 AM

Hey guys...long time lurker here. Love the site...

Speaking of Dozier, always been a fan! But is he really suited for the lead off spot? With the home run production, shouldn't he be down in the order?? Guess they don't really have a better option for the #1 spot.

You nailed it. The Twins don't have a typical lead off hitter, so Dozier is doing it for now. And he's giving a full effort, so he'll do for now. Fuld would be a good candidate if he got on base more often.

#6 stringer bell

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 04:28 AM

You nailed it. The Twins don't have a typical lead off hitter, so Dozier is doing it for now. And he's giving a full effort, so he'll do for now. Fuld would be a good candidate if he got on base more often.

Dozier is doing exactly what leadoff hitters are supposed to do--score runs. Because of the high walk total, his OBP is solid, and with the 11 SB and undoubtedly good baserunning skills, he scores more runs than his OBP would suggest. Further, even though he has struck out 30 times in about 140 PAs, even when he has fanned, he has worked the count most of the time, very few three or four pitch punch-outs. IMHO, the long balls are mostly a bonus and it would be great if they were all three run bombs, but the fact is that almost all of the Twins homers this year have been solos.

Edited by stringer bell, 05 May 2014 - 07:55 AM.


#7 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 06:08 AM

Dozier is doing exactly what leadoff hitters are supposed to do--score runs. Because of the high walk total, his OBP is solid, and with the 11 SB and undoubtedly good baserunning skills, he scores more runs than his OBP would suggest. Further, even though he has struck out 30 times in about 140 PAs, even when he has fanned, he has worked the count most of the time, every few three or four pitch punch-outs. IMHO, the long balls are mostly a bonus and it would be great if they were all three run bombs, but the fact is that almost all of the Twins homers this year have been solos.


I don't get the "Dozier's not a perfect leadoff guy" arguments. He's near the top of the league in stolen bases. He has an OBP just over .370.

What more do people want from the guy? Yeah, in a perfect world you'd have a guy with eight home runs hitting third in the lineup but Dozier looks to be a very good leadoff guy if he continues to get on base at a good clip and steal bases when appropriate.

#8 twinsnorth49

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 08:00 AM

Other than stolen bases Mauer profiles better as a lead off hitter than Dozier. If Dozier could lift his BA a bit he would be a great 2 hole hitter.

#9 Beezer07

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 08:04 AM

Hasn't research shown that you want your best hitters in the 2 and 4 spots in your lineup? I don't know what "best" means in this context, but perhaps it means "best at getting on base"? Not sure how this impacts where Dozier and Mauer should be, respective to each other, but I like Dozier 1, Mauer 2, <insert "best" remaining Twins hitter here> 4.

#10 jokin

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 08:05 AM

I don't get the "Dozier's not a perfect leadoff guy" arguments. He's near the top of the league in stolen bases. He has an OBP just over .370.

What more do people want from the guy? Yeah, in a perfect world you'd have a guy with eight home runs hitting third in the lineup but Dozier looks to be a very good leadoff guy if he continues to get on base at a good clip and steal bases when appropriate.


You answered the reasons for why "Dozier's not a perfect leadoff guy" in your second paragraph. Right now, there's no doubt that he's the Twins best leadoff guy. And his baserunning yesterday was nothing short of awesome. But his current BB% of 16.2% is exactly double his career rate of 8.1%. It sure doesn't seem sustainable.

#11 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 08:08 AM

You answered the reasons for why "Dozier's not a perfect leadoff guy" in your second paragraph. Right now, there's no doubt that he's the Twins best leadoff guy. And his baserunning yesterday was nothing short of awesome. But his current BB% of 16.2% is exactly double his career rate of 8.1%. It sure doesn't seem sustainable.


No, that walk rate probably isn't sustainable but it's likely that his BA will continue to rise as his walk rate drops. Overall, the OBP is probably sustainable, or something close to it anyway.

And I'll take "really good leadoff guy" all day. Dozier doesn't need to be the "perfect leadoff guy" to stick in that role for the time being. Right now, he's one of the best leadoff guys in baseball, if not the best leadoff guy in baseball.

And with Plouffe slotting into the third spot of the lineup so nicely, it's not as if the Twins are really sacrificing production by having Dozier leadoff.

#12 CRArko

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 08:12 AM

Yeah, the Dozier-Mauer-Plouffe top of the lineup has been the best thing so far this season. Why mess with it before there is a need to?
Crazy... I mean like, so many positive waves... maybe we can't lose, you're on!

#13 jokin

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 08:21 AM

No, that walk rate probably isn't sustainable but it's likely that his BA will continue to rise as his walk rate drops. Overall, the OBP is probably sustainable, or something close to it anyway.

And I'll take "really good leadoff guy" all day. Dozier doesn't need to be the "perfect leadoff guy" to stick in that role for the time being. Right now, he's one of the best leadoff guys in baseball, if not the best leadoff guy in baseball.

And with Plouffe slotting into the third spot of the lineup so nicely, it's not as if the Twins are really sacrificing production by having Dozier leadoff.


His big SLG improvement, accelerating K% and falling year-over-year contact rates are warning signals suggesting he may not always be the best leadoff guy and the Twins should be proactive if someone else better fills the role.

There's no doubt though, that both Dozier and Plouffe appear to have made sustainable upgrades in their games. The SB number for Dozier and the Doubles number for Plouffe really stand out and don't whatsoever appear to be flukes.

#14 Joe A. Preusser

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 09:05 AM

His big SLG improvement, accelerating K% and falling year-over-year contact rates are warning signals suggesting he may not always be the best leadoff guy and the Twins should be proactive if someone else better fills the role.

There's no doubt though, that both Dozier and Plouffe appear to have made sustainable upgrades in their games. The SB number for Dozier and the Doubles number for Plouffe really stand out and don't whatsoever appear to be flukes.


When he's ready, Buxton can have that role.

#15 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 08:23 PM

I love the excitement that Dozier brings to this team, both offensively and defensively. I like Dozier in the lead off spot. I like Byron Buxton and the hope and promise of a great young prospect, but I don't like this talk of just waiting for Buxton to assume his role as the consummate leadoff hitter. I'll take everyday of Brian Dozier I can get until Buxton FORCES HIM OUT OF THE LEADOFF SPOT. Prospects will break your heart. Give me the here and now and let the young guys develop in the minors.