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The Beast has Awoken

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#21 ashburyjohn

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 05:22 PM

Using the same logic, Colabello (who made his pro debut on May 22nd last season) had only a year and a month of minor league experience before that and about the same number of games under his belt.


Colabello, advanced in age but with little experience in organized ball, is a fair comp for approximately 0.000000001% of ballplayers.

#22 jokin

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 05:47 PM

He's off to a great start, but he doesn't have much minor league "seasoning" under his belt...he played in only 159 games in his first 4 seasons, with less than 700 PAs total in those four seasons. This is his first season above A ball.

I doubt he sees Minnesota in 2014.


He did well with 500+ PAs in High A, and is building on that this year. If the 3 position players on the DL take the spots of Hermann, Santana and an RP, while Nunez takes a spot from Florimon.....that leaves Vargas as the only viable depth position player on the 40-man to fill the DH/1stB role when the next injury/trade hits. Obviously, Parmelee would be first in line, but that's going to take more maneuvering- I would think that Parm is there to pick up when either Arcia or Kubel falter in the OF, or if Mauer goes to the DL. With a 12-man pitching staff and the departure of Willingham or the next DL guy, IMO, the way could be open for Vargas to be considered for a call-up as early as July in an expanded Thome role.- provided he continues to mash in NB or Roc., of course.

#23 drivlikejehu

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 05:55 PM

Colabello is a unique case who also is nominally able to play the outfield, which Vargas could not do under any circumstances.

I hope Vargas continues to hit but he won't be in Minnesota before September (and quite possibly then either) unless half the roster hits the DL at the same time. Just not happening.

#24 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 05:59 PM

Colabello, advanced in age but with little experience in organized ball, is a fair comp for approximately 0.000000001% of ballplayers.

Not to mention half a decade plus in independant pro ball.

#25 twinsfan34

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 06:00 PM

I always wondered why he spent 3 years in rookie ball.


Two injuries and a suspension were factors.

#26 twinsfan34

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 06:10 PM

I'm with the camp that believers Vargas will be a MLB hitter. He's lost 50 games 3 times already. So he's lost 1.5 seasons and that's about how far he is behind Ortiz development wise.

Vargas:
http://www.baseball-...id=vargas001ken
Ortiz:
http://www.baseball-...id=ortiz-001dav

Need to remember steroid free Ortiz was a 30-35 HR hitter, not the 40+ guy.

#27 jokin

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 10:37 AM

[quote name='jokin']As the weather is finally warming up, so should some of the dormant minor league bats......Here's a line that has yet gone unnoticed, a tasty SSS to be sure, but which demands more careful scrutiny from this point forward:

[QUOTE]BB% 16.3%
K% 10.2%
AVG .400
OBP .510
SLG .775
OPS 1.285
ISO .375
wOBA .557[/QUOTE]


This is Kennys Vargas's plate numbers over the last 2 weeks. The Beast awakens....and few are taking much note,,,,,and he's doing this with virtually no support in front of, or behind him, in the woeful New Britain batting order. Imagine a potential switch-hitting David Ortiz, he's now basically one stop away from the Twins lineup.[/QUOTE]

It's been a month now since Vargas began his torrid hitting in AA, while the numbers have smoothed out a bit, his numbers since April 20, are better or comparable to the Eastern League leader, Top 50 uber-prospect of the Red Sox, Mookie Betts's season-long stats. Even with his poor start in April, overall for the season, Vargas now ranks in the top 5 in the EL in SLG, ISO, OPS and wOBA, top 4 in wRC+.

Here are his stats for the last month:

[QUOTE]
BB% 12.7%
K% 12.7%
AVG .363
OBP .449
SLG .627
OPS 1.077
ISO .265
wOBA .474
[/QUOTE]

He is continuing to demonstrate that his added plate discipline is not a fluke. How many power hitters, at any level, have a 1.00 BB/K ratio? Now the only question is:
When will he be promoted to Rochester?

The First Baseman currently there is 31 year old journeyman, Brad Nelson. I would think that once Arcia and Willingham are back with the Twins, the club can choose to cut or demote Nelson, opening a potential spot for Vargas to DH and play some First. But they'll undoubtedly have to make decisions on Hermann, Nunez, and especially, Colabello and Parmelee, who pose potential blocks in Rochester to Vargas's chances to moving up and claiming a roster spot with the Wings.

#28 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 11:48 AM

my guess... right around the minor league all star break.

#29 jokin

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 01:27 PM

my guess... right around the minor league all star break.


That sounds about right. Even if Nelson is dropped, it still seems like there's one too many guys that need a spot between the Twins and Red Wings, once everybody's all finally healthy. It seems unlikely that Parmelee will clear waivers this time- so either he stays with the Twins or he's probably gone. I would kind of like to see Cola and Vargas battle for Red Wing playing time at First and DH and making each other better in the process.

#30 jokin

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 03:30 PM

Interesting article out today on Vargas. Now he's giving even more reasons out why I predict he soon will become a MN Twins fan favorite. He's gone through a lot to get where he is now, and he's more than willing to give back. And now..... Big Papi has fully taken him under his wing:

[FONT=Arial]A rare breed is the switch-hitting slugger, but Vargas is doing his best to live up to the expectations, even in the face of the comparisons to Ortiz, a man he confides in regularly to help him along his path to the Majors [a bit of caution here....I hope Papi isn't influencing Kennys away from being a Twin, long-term]

..[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial]"Big Papi is like part of my family," said Vargas, who is batting .309 with eight homers and 28 RBIs this season. "Every day he calls me and says 'keep it up.' That's made me motivated so much, and I try to keep working every day."[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial]
Introduced in Spring Training when Vargas was a 20-year-old trying to find his hold in the game, Ortiz took to the youngster and has been a mentor for the Twins' No. 16 prospect ever since.
[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial]"I've known him for four years," said Vargas. "Everybody knows Big Papi, but his personality is better than he shows in the media. He talks to me a lot about things in life, what I have to do, eating, staying out of trouble."[/FONT]


http://www.milb.com/...s_milb&sid=milb

If he keeps hitting at this pace, he's bound to enter some top 100 lists, mid-season or next off-season, and one would have to think he'd be projected to making the Twins roster no later than 13 months from now.

#31 jimv2

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 05:42 PM

If he keeps hitting at this pace, he's bound to enter some top 100 lists, mid-season or next off-season, and one would have to think he'd be projected to making the Twins roster no later than 13 months from now.


Problem is none of the stats quoted in this thread really address the key question: Does he have a hole in his swing that major league pitchers are good enought to exploit and minor league (or at least AA) pitchers in general aren't? We don't know that, but his coaches do. If he doesn't, then I'd think they'd want to promote him up to AAA at midseason, although I can also see a possible argument that says keep him where he is so that NB isn't completely bereft of offense. And in that event and if he keeps on performing the way he has, I think there's a chance that he comes up in September just to get a taste of major league pitching and an idea of things he needs to work on to have a chance for a "permanent" promotion.

But if he does have a hole, then the question becomes what environment is best for him to work on correcting the hole, and I have no idea as to the answer to that.

I guess another question would be whether he's gained enough maturity that his past "troubles" won't recur when he has the freedom and money of a major leaguer. It's not just talent that allows one to be successful in the bigs--it's also self-discipline.

#32 gil4

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 06:06 PM

[FONT=Arial]"Everybody knows Big Papi, but his personality is better than he shows in the media.[/FONT]


I always thought his personality played vey well with the media. Did I miss something?