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May Over/Under

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#21 Thegrin

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 05:56 AM

3 Quality starts in a row deserves 3 !!!
the Twins are now 2-3 for the month and if they win tonight in Cleveland they will be even for both the month and the year.

#22 Thegrin

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 09:43 PM

I watched. I could not believe my eyes. 4 Quality starts in a row!!!! Gibson always had something when he needed it. The Twins are 3-3 and at .500

#23 Physics Guy

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 10:09 PM

And now they are 3-3. The rest of the month will be tough. I'll predict under, but I think they can keep it close. This team seems to have a little more fight than the past three years. The pitching staff seems to be righting itself somewhat, so I think they avoid any major losing streaks (knocks on wood).

#24 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 06:27 AM

They're getting close to last year's 18-18 mark.

But unlike last year, I doubt they will go 48-78 the rest of the way.This pitching staff should keep them in a lot more games now that it doesn't look terrible.

#25 jokin

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 06:53 AM

They're getting close to last year's 18-18 mark.

But unlike last year, I doubt they will go 48-78 the rest of the way.This pitching staff should keep them in a lot more games now that it doesn't look terrible.


Brock demonstrating his mastery of the Glib Understatement? We are currently on unfamiliar ground, in uncharted waters, soaring above over the rainbow territory with our current pitching situation.......4 QS. In. A. Row. 6 games in May and a Starter ERA of 2.63.

#26 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 07:00 AM

Brock demonstrating his mastery of the Glib Understatement? We are currently on unfamiliar ground, in uncharted waters, soaring above over the rainbow territory with our current pitching situation.......4 QS. In. A. Row. 6 games in May and a Starter ERA of 2.63.


Just tempering expectations. Hughes is the real deal, IMO. Always been bullish on him. Nolasco should be just fine. Gibson needs to miss a lot more bats or he's Nick Blackburn 2.0. Deduno is a wildcard as only Samuel Deduno can be. Correia has a ceiling of mediocrity.

Much improved over last year? Absolutely. Still a lot of room for improvement, though.

#27 mike wants wins

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 07:11 AM

Still trying to figure out how Gibson is getting away that swing/miss percentage......I stick by my prediction, because being hard headed and unwilling to change is how people are successful!

#28 jokin

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 07:14 AM

Just tempering expectations. Hughes is the real deal, IMO. Always been bullish on him. Nolasco should be just fine. Gibson needs to miss a lot more bats or he's Nick Blackburn 2.0. Deduno is a wildcard as only Samuel Deduno can be. Correia has a ceiling of mediocrity.

Much improved over last year? Absolutely. Still a lot of room for improvement, though.


The kind of improvement that might come from insertion into the rotation of a certain Big Unit?

#29 jokin

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 07:18 AM

Still trying to figure out how Gibson is getting away that swing/miss percentage......I stick by my prediction, because being hard headed and unwilling to change is how people are successful!


Is it the inconsistency with his sinker that has hitters off-balance? Gibson varies from game-to-game from generally "wild high" to "wild low". And the Blackburn 2.0 scenario is a scary thought.....and what exactly was your prediction for Gibby?

#30 mike wants wins

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 07:21 AM

I meant my prediction on being 5 games under by the end of May.....

I think all along I've said Gibson is a 3.....with the occassional awesome start, and slightly more frequent "meh" start, with the possibility he's really a 4. But man, he's got to find a way to get people to swing and miss, or things will go South.

#31 Craig Arko

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 07:24 AM

I stick by my prediction, because being hard headed and unwilling to change is how people are successful!


That's what this guy said.

Mongo only pawn in game of life.


#32 halfchest

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 07:26 AM

Still trying to figure out how Gibson is getting away that swing/miss percentage......I stick by my prediction, because being hard headed and unwilling to change is how people are successful!


That's got me concerned too. It's nice to see his shiny ERA, 6.0 IP average and positive win/loss but that lack of K's is scaring me. I worry about him blowing up at any time here. Hopefully the K's are coming soon and the BB's will go down again. I think he's capable of putting up a 2/1 K/B ratio with 6.0 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. Nothing amazing but that coupled with his groundball abilities will help him continue to put up around a 3.5-4.0 ERA I would think.

The numbers I worry about trending the other way is HR's (only pitcher with 30+ innings in the majors to not allow a homer yet) and BABIP (.270 . . . last year was .350, guessing it'll end up somewhere in the middle of that eventually)

#33 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 07:27 AM

The kind of improvement that might come from insertion into the rotation of a certain Big Unit?


I'm fine with either May or Meyer getting the call. It'd be nice to see the Twins encourage the competition between the two players and give the nod to the pitcher more deserving of a promotion. Right now, the two look pretty much in lock-step with one another.

#34 jokin

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 07:30 AM

I meant my prediction on being 5 games under by the end of May.....

I think all along I've said Gibson is a 3.....with the occassional awesome start, and slightly more frequent "meh" start, with the possibility he's really a 4. But man, he's got to find a way to get people to swing and miss, or things will go South.


That's got me concerned too. It's nice to see his shiny ERA, 6.0 IP average and positive win/loss but that lack of K's is scaring me. I worry about him blowing up at any time here. Hopefully the K's are coming soon and the BB's will go down again. I think he's capable of putting up a 2/1 K/B ratio with 6.0 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9.

Nothing amazing but that coupled with his groundball abilities



will help him continue to put up around a 3.5-4.0 ERA I would think.

The numbers I worry about trending the other way is HR's (only pitcher with 30+ innings in the majors to not allow a homer yet) and BABIP (.270 . . . last year was .350, guessing it'll end up somewhere in the middle of that eventually)


Combine those scary swing stats with a complete collapse in GB% last night- which was only 28%, versus over 50% on the season. There isn't enough smoke and mirrors in an entire 3-ring circus to cover those hard realities for long- but there are guys who survive and prosper with a high-wire pitching act for years and years- maybe Gibby will turn out to be one of them.

Edited by jokin, 06 May 2014 - 07:32 AM.


#35 mike wants wins

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 07:32 AM

Been a Gibson advocate for some time, hoping he succeeds!

#36 luckylager

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 07:35 AM

Never hurts to be optimistic - Over.

#37 halfchest

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 07:37 AM

Secrets to Gibsons success:

17% Infield Fly ball percentage. That's crazy high compared to his history and in this small sample that's a lot of outs.

.273 BABIP. While not insanely low it's 30 - 50 points lower than projections and last year his was .350.

No homeruns - mentioned it above just reiterating it.

Reason for optimism?
His k-rate is awful at 10% - I'm optimistic this will improve as it's a small sample and his career minor league K-rate in the minors was between 20 and 30%, even last year he put up better strikeout numbers.

His BB- rate also seems a bit out of whack, I expect that to go down.

His GB rate seems for real and could even improve given his history. I don't think they track groundball rates in the minors but he's been known for that as long as I can remember.

I'm a big Kyle Gibson fan so until he implodes, I'll have faith he'll keep it up and the peripherals will start to back up his performance.

#38 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 07:46 AM

Just tempering expectations. Hughes is the real deal, IMO. Always been bullish on him. Nolasco should be just fine. Gibson needs to miss a lot more bats or he's Nick Blackburn 2.0. Deduno is a wildcard as only Samuel Deduno can be. Correia has a ceiling of mediocrity.

Much improved over last year? Absolutely. Still a lot of room for improvement, though.


I have to wonder what's up with Gibson. His career minor league K rate says he could be a quality number 2. His time in the majors through...

#39 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 07:48 AM

I have to wonder what's up with Gibson. His career minor league K rate says he could be a quality number 2. His time in the majors through...


I haven't been able to watch Gibson every start this season but it seems to me like it's a combination of two things:

1. He's still dancing around the plate too much
2. His stuff just ain't that good

Hopefully it's more of the former than the latter.

#40 ashburyjohn

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 11:38 AM

We are currently on unfamiliar ground, in uncharted waters, soaring above over the rainbow territory


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oraeyE3M6ns