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Article: Looking Ahead to Find a Shortstop

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#1 Nick Nelson

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 08:55 AM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...ind-a-Shortstop

#2 Trautmann13

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 09:19 AM

Next offseason should be used for 2 things. Signing James Shields (please god, please) and one of the shortstops mentioned. Realistically it comes between Jed Lowrie and Asdrubal Cabrera. I would be more excited for Lowrie given that he has been more consistently solid than Cabrera. Imagine if you will.....

2015 Minnesota Twins:
Starters-
Shields
Meyer
Nolasco
Gibson
Hughes

Fielders (from catcher to RF)-
Pinto
Mauer
Dozier
Sano/Plouffe (one will DH)
Lowrie/Cabrera
Hicks
Buxton
Arcia

Now this is saying basically EVERYTHING went right for the team from here on out. You can also throw Colabello out there to swing the stick if he plays half as good the rest of '14 as he has/did in April. The above team can actually make some noise and may become favorites in the Central. But hey, maybe wishful thinking but entirely possible.

#3 blindeke

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 09:25 AM

[COLOR=#3E3E3E]"It was, without question, one of the most blatantly and inexcusably horrendous personnel decisions this organization has ever made, but there's no use dwelling on it."

Gah. Take away all my fun. I suppose you want me to take down the Bill Smith dartboard too?[/COLOR]

#4 mike wants wins

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 09:25 AM

Put Rosario in LF, and your lineup is more fun to imagine, imo. I also think it is possible May is in the rotation, and they've already moved on from Nolasco or Hughes, but unlikely. I would guess they do NOT sign a FA pitcher, because May, Darnell, and Johnson are in AAA, and Berrios is in AA and Stewart is in high A. But, I could be wrong.
Lighten up Francis....

#5 Dbohnk

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 09:39 AM

There's a guy in Japan right now named Tsuyoshi Nishiokia. Maybe he could be our long term answer at ss.

#6 ericchri

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 09:51 AM

I realize he's not tearing the league up, but I actually find Santana's results so far relatively encouraging. His first taste of AAA and after a couple weeks he's holding his own with the bat to a .268/.311/.381/.692 line as a SS. That's not stellar, but he's also not failing, and I find that to be a good sign. He's not ready yet, perhaps, but let's see what things look like in a couple months, I haven't given up on seeing Santana at SS by the AS break.

#7 Taildragger8791

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 09:53 AM

Hanley would almost assuredly get a qualifying offer, which pretty much takes him out of the running. I could see one or two others on this list also receiving a QO even if the team doesn't need them back, because it still nets them either a draft pick or trade bait.

Baseball needs to fix the QO system because it is effectively killing free agency for guys considered solid (but not transcendent) players.

#8 jokin

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 09:59 AM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...ind-a-Shortstop


Maybe they can trade for this guy recently signed into the Cardinal organization...(scroll to the right side to see the sweet slash line).....signed through 2018 at $2M/yr.........

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#9 jokin

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:06 AM

But in the two seasons prior, Drew hit just .238/.313/.373 with 12 home runs total. He strikes out a ton. And he's already on the wrong side of 30. While he's almost certain to be an upgrade over Florimon, Drew doesn't strike me as being worthy of a sizable investment. ]


Why the persistence in repeatedly making this assertion about Drew's lackluster numbers in 2011-2012, without noting as a qualifier the catastrophic injury he sustained in 2011, one from which he finally was fully recovered from in 2013? (Again, Drew's foot was literally pointing backwards after the fateful slide into home plate).

#10 edavis0308

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:16 AM

Knowing this team's past with short stops, they will probably sign Drew to a 4/60 contract a week before the draft.

#11 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:18 AM

Your list is incomplete.

#FreeDeRosa

#12 nicksaviking

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:18 AM

Why the persistence in repeatedly making this assertion about Drew's lackluster numbers in 2011-2012, without noting as a qualifier the catastrophic injury he sustained in 2011, one from which he finally was fully recovered from in 2013? (Again, Drew's foot was literally pointing backwards after the fateful slide into home plate).


I guess the same reason that others continually tout Drew as a quality player without noting as a qualifier that he couldn't hit anywhere but Fenway park nor could he hit against lefthanders.

#13 TheLeviathan

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:21 AM

Mauer to shortstop.

#14 mike wants wins

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:22 AM

jokin, we don't need any cubans....plus, they are just too expensive, and they wouldn't sign here becuase it is cold, and, um, what are the other multitudes of excuses for not signing international FAs again?
Lighten up Francis....

#15 spycake

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:22 AM

Why the persistence in repeatedly making this assertion about Drew's lackluster numbers in 2011-2012, without noting as a qualifier the catastrophic injury he sustained in 2011, one from which he finally was fully recovered from in 2013? (Again, Drew's foot was literally pointing backwards after the fateful slide into home plate).


That bugs me too. And acknowledging that doesn't necessarily mean you endorse Drew.

We give Pelfrey a bigger pass on his 2013 all the time, despite the fact that he put up an almost identical ERA+ in the full season before his surgery too.

#16 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:23 AM

nor could he hit against lefthanders?

A .683 OPS isn't world beating, but it certainly isn't that bad.
Does he hit worse against LHP? (Yes, just as most LHB do)
Is he a liability against them? Absolutely not.

He also can hit outside of Fenway (Which is only his 8th best park, 6th best when you take away the very SSS)
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald

:whacky028::whacky028: :whacky028::whacky028:

#17 AWOLNATION_11

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:23 AM

Why the persistence in repeatedly making this assertion about Drew's lackluster numbers in 2011-2012, without noting as a qualifier the catastrophic injury he sustained in 2011, one from which he finally was fully recovered from in 2013? (Again, Drew's foot was literally pointing backwards after the fateful slide into home plate).

[FONT=Helv][SIZE=2][FONT=Helv][SIZE=2]
Let's also not forget about the Fenway factor for Drew in 2013.2011 & 2012 total OPS was .686
2013 Home OPS .858
2013 Away OPS .687
[/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT]

#18 Highabove

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:28 AM

Hardy was due to become a free agent after the 2011 season. There was no guarantee that the Twins would have resigned him. The Twins were cutting payroll during that period.
Also, Hardy had misgivings with the Twins Medical Staff. There was a good chance Hardy would have been gone anyway.

Edited by Highabove, 30 April 2014 - 10:33 AM.


#19 Trevor0333

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:33 AM

Bill Smith gets a lot of criticism, most of it deservedly so. At least he did have the balls to try and make a deal, the team had been way too conservative on the trade market prior. That's why I can forgive the Young/Garza deal. Still you don't trade position players for relievers, especially the premium positions (C, SS, CF). Hoey was a essentially a non prospect too but for what he got it shows other teams weren't exactly knocking down their door for Hardy either & the Ramos/Capps was nearly as bad.

Edited by Trevor0333, 30 April 2014 - 10:36 AM.


#20 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:42 AM

Drew is "on the wrong side of 30" now, but Lowrie, who will be almost the exact same age next off-season as Drew is now, will be a viable FA target?

#21 spycake

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:43 AM

Hardy was due to become a free agent after the 2011 season. There was no guarantee that the Twins would have resigned him. The Twins were cutting payroll during that period.
Also, Hardy had misgivings with the Twins Medical Staff. There was a good chance Hardy would have been gone anyway.


Still doesn't excuse a straight salary dump of a MLB starting shortstop. (And over what? $5-6 million?)

And how soon did we begin saying his replacement needed to move to 2B anyway? ARG!

There's a reason Nick didn't want to rehash this topic, people! No good can come from this. :)

#22 mike wants wins

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:51 AM

Maybe we could concentrate not on the hardy deal......

#23 jokin

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:54 AM

I guess the same reason that others continually tout Drew as a quality player without noting as a qualifier that he couldn't hit anywhere but Fenway park nor could he hit against lefthanders.


This is demonstrably false.
OPS + in Boston: 109
OPS+ in Arizona from 2006 to 2010 (when he was full healthy): 109

Drew slash from 2006-2010: .272/.332/.448/.780

Edited by jokin, 30 April 2014 - 11:48 AM.


#24 jokin

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:56 AM

Drew is "on the wrong side of 30" now, but Lowrie, who will be almost the exact same age next off-season as Drew is now, will be a viable FA target?


Nothing to see here...that's just Chief and his pesky "Inconvenient Truths".

#25 cmathewson

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:57 AM

Drew UZR/OPS numbers by year:

2007 -12.4/.683
2008 -15.9/.836
2009 2.6/.748
2010 8.9/.810
2011 4.3/.713
2012 -7.0/.657
2013 5.3/.777

I look for major regression in 2015 at age 32. Pass.

Cabrera UZR/OPS by year:
2008 -2.0/.713
2009 -5.0/.799
2010 -5.5/.637
2011 -11.0/.792
2012 -7.7/.762
2013 -12.8/.700

He's already regressing, and his defense is well below average. Pass.

JJ Hardy UZR/OPS by year
2007 12.8/.786
2008 6.4/.821
2009 6.8/.659
2010 7.4/.714
2011 8.8/.801
2012 12.4/.671
2013 6.0/.738

We missed out on his best years. We could have signed him to a long-term deal. He said he wanted it. Sigh. Now I just see regression in his future. Pass

The Twins better hope Santana develops, or they can acquire a good shortstop. Because the FA market is looking thin.

#26 cmathewson

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:59 AM

Drew is "on the wrong side of 30" now, but Lowrie, who will be almost the exact same age next off-season as Drew is now, will be a viable FA target?


Lowrie never was a viable target. He's not as bad as Cabrera, but he's a career negative fielder and he's getting worse. I'm shocked the A's use him at short. He can barely make it across the diamond with his throws.
"If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

#27 spycake

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 11:00 AM

Two of the article's suggestions (Lowrie and Cabrera) both scored very poorly in defense last year (and early this year), according to B-Ref. Cabrera -1.6 wins, and Lowrie -2.1. Between their bats and the positional adjustment, they were still both roughly average players, but could be suspect long-term solutions at short.

I have to imagine Hanley Ramirez will get a big payday somewhere -- he's been phenomenal in LA, and even his defense has graded out better there. If he doesn't re-sign with LA, the Yankees will be looking for a shortstop too, right?

Hardy is, of course, the one that got away, and has the best rep with the glove. His early season hitting and injuries are a little worrisome (not least because he's on my fantasy team!). In addition to any odd feeling that may exist from his earlier stint and departure here, Target Field may have been a contributor in sapping his power in 2010, which is generally his chief offensive weapon.

I still think Dozier deserves another crack at it. His defensive numbers weren't that bad at SS in 2012, and he looks a lot more comfortable in the bigs now. Probably not worth it until we get an interesting option to play 2B in his place -- maybe Rosario? Would have liked adding one of those Cubans.

#28 Dantes929

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 11:03 AM

I was ok with getting Nishi at the time and most people probably were. I was against moving Hardy at the time mainly because we were going into that season with question marks above Casilla, Nishi and Valencia. We needed more stability than that. Hardy had a bad year with the Brewers and blamed them and praised the Twins for his resurgence. Then he goes to the Orioles and does even better and blames the Twins for that difference as well. That's the part I didn't like about him. He may not be interested in the Twins but they did help resurrect his career.

#29 Dantes929

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 11:04 AM

Dozier to shortstop and Santana or Polanco to 2nd base. Problem solved.

#30 tobi0040

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 11:04 AM

Drew UZR/OPS numbers by year:

2007 -12.4/.683
2008 -15.9/.836
2009 2.6/.748
2010 8.9/.810
2011 4.3/.713
2012 -7.0/.657
2013 5.3/.777

I look for major regression in 2015 at age 32. Pass.

Cabrera UZR/OPS by year:
2008 -2.0/.713
2009 -5.0/.799
2010 -5.5/.637
2011 -11.0/.792
2012 -7.7/.762
2013 -12.8/.700

He's already regressing, and his defense is well below average. Pass.

JJ Hardy UZR/OPS by year
2007 12.8/.786
2008 6.4/.821
2009 6.8/.659
2010 7.4/.714
2011 8.8/.801
2012 12.4/.671
2013 6.0/.738

We missed out on his best years. We could have signed him to a long-term deal. He said he wanted it. Sigh. Now I just see regression in his future. Pass

The Twins better hope Santana develops, or they can acquire a good shortstop. Because the FA market is looking thin.


Here are my thoughts. Anyone of these guys would be a bigger upgrade on the offensive side than what we lose defensively. In addition to signing one, why not pluck a SS prospect in AA or AAA from one of the 10 or so teams with a really good SS? I am guessing the Braves, Rangers, Red Sox, Cubs, Indians, Diamondbacks, etc. have something in the minors better than we have in Floriomon. Didi comes to mind, but I am guessing more exist.

I am wondering about the Twins defensive requrements for the SS position. We could probably rattle off 8 names of guys we have signed or drafted to play SS that we have moved to another position. Are all the teams in the league as picky as us? Maybe we have created this issue for ourselves? If I am not mistaken, wasn't Lawrie talked about in the Santana trade (with Boston) and we didn't think he was a SS?