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Article: How Much Longer Will Alex Meyer (and Twins Fans) Wait?

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#101 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 12:58 PM

He hasn't even come close to proving he is ready. He's had two dominant starts in a row. Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Kyle Gibson was pretty dominant for over 100 innings of AAA ball last season and was absolutely awful when he got the call.

OK...Let's say you have a baseball team. You have a choice of picking a pitcher for one game, which will determine whether your team gets into the World Series or not. You have to chose between Pelfrey, Correia, or Meyer to start the game for your team. The game is this Friday. Which pitcher do you chose and why?

#102 Craig Arko

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 01:02 PM

OK...Let's say you have a baseball team. You have a choice of picking a pitcher for one game, which will determine whether your team gets into the World Series or not. You have to chose between Pelfrey, Correia, or Meyer to start the game for your team. The game is this Friday. Which pitcher do you chose and why?


Bert Blyleven. Because it fits well with the other premises.
Per aspera ad astra.

#103 spycake

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 01:22 PM

Can someone explain how calling up another player is bad? If he isn't ready, he goes back down. If he is ready, great! There are 4 guys in AAA that you could give a shot to, choose one, and see what happens.


Well, I don't think you want to make it a musical chairs thing, unless you have to (i.e. 2012-2013 Twins). Unless he's an injury replacement, you'd like the new guy to be able to earn the spot permanently if possible. So, you might be hesitant to call up Johnson right now if there was a strong possibility you'd want Meyer in 3 weeks anyway. (All the more reason to be a little more aggressive with Meyer, then!)

On the other hand, May, Darnell, and Johnson, because they are already on the 40-man roster, have already been optioned this year, so they could be recalled and sent back freely without any real contractual consequence. Meyer would be the only one to burn an option year if he was sent back down in 2014 (of course, he's also the guy you'd most want to stick, and probably the guy least likely to "need" an option year in 2017).

#104 DJL44

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 01:40 PM

5-6 innings for a good start isn't that bad anymore -- it's pretty much the going rate for Twins starters.


Nolasco 5.9IP/start
Hughes 5.6
Gibson 5.6
Correia 5.4
Pelfrey 4.9

All Meyer has to do is pitch 5.5 IP / start with better rate production than Correia.

#105 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 01:41 PM

Three weeks ago the general sentiment was that we would not be able to score any runs and were going to lose 95 or 100 games. Now, we have to make immediate moves because we could be contenders. For god sake it is still April. Perhaps they should not have signed Pelfrey but they did so you don't just give up on the guy after a couple starts.


Is this not the same cry we heard for Gibson. Were there not several people here who spoke of the ignorance of the front office. Was it not written here that Gibson was better than anyone on our staff. We know how that turned out. Gibson might be there best pitcher this year but he was not ready. Some of you have memories of convenience.

#106 Steve Lein

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 01:51 PM

I agree with your pitch/inning philosophy, but would add that a 30 pitch inning in the 6th is also much worse than a 30-pitch first inning (which we Twins fans see way too often).

So what happens if your pitcher has 90 pitches (or even 80) and you send him out for the sixth and he throws 30 pitches? It seems logical that efficiency would be inversely proportional to pitch number, so could you really be surprised? Or do you just have someone warming up in the bullpen from the start and ignore the mental effect it has on the pitcher?


Yup, agree on the first point, and in general on the 2nd. I think you obviously would be much quicker with the hook on a high-pitch count inning later in the game.

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#107 drivlikejehu

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 01:56 PM

The advantage of Meyer over Pelfrey/Correia is that, even if Meyer struggles, it could be a learning experience that pays off in the future (something that could be said of Gibson's 2013). But he also has present-day upside. The fact he threw so few innings last year does worry me though, so far as making him a fixture in Minnesota.

#108 TheLeviathan

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 02:07 PM

I'm willing to be patient on Meyer, but I am nothing short of baffled by the notion that KC has any redeeming trade value. At best you get to throw a dart at someone's also-rans in A ball.

It's not worth getting hung up about whether it's Meyer, Johnson, Darnell, or anyone else that has a chance to contribute going forward.

#109 Steve Lein

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 02:07 PM

Three weeks ago the general sentiment was that we would not be able to score any runs and were going to lose 95 or 100 games. Now, we have to make immediate moves because we could be contenders. For god sake it is still April. Perhaps they should not have signed Pelfrey but they did so you don't just give up on the guy after a couple starts.


Yup. The Twins are 12-11 now. They were also 11-11 on this day last year, and 18-18 a few weeks later...

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#110 Mike Sixel

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 02:08 PM

Three weeks ago the general sentiment was that we would not be able to score any runs and were going to lose 95 or 100 games. Now, we have to make immediate moves because we could be contenders. For god sake it is still April. Perhaps they should not have signed Pelfrey but they did so you don't just give up on the guy after a couple starts.


Is this not the same cry we heard for Gibson. Were there not several people here who spoke of the ignorance of the front office. Was it not written here that Gibson was better than anyone on our staff. We know how that turned out. Gibson might be there best pitcher this year but he was not ready. Some of you have memories of convenience.


My memory is that they waited too long on Gibson, but that the experience helped him be ready this year. That it is not true that a guy has to be ready to stay up forever to come up. And, Meyer is better than Gibson, considerably, imo.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#111 kdrupp09

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 02:09 PM

I would think that the Twins have had some sort of innings limit for Meyer since he missed so much of last year. My thought is that if he continues to dominate why waste a potentially valuable learning experience (much like Gibson's 2013) on AAA innings.

#112 jokin

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 02:53 PM

My memory is that they waited too long on Gibson, but that the experience helped him be ready this year. That it is not true that a guy has to be ready to stay up forever to come up. And, Meyer is better than Gibson, considerably, imo.


And Gibson was better than any other starter last year. It's just that Gibson's best innings were "wasted" in May and June in Rochester. And the only way you can really "get ready" to be a major league starter..... is by getting major league innings, optimally when you're at your best physically. By July, Gibson was clearly a spent force, unable to physically adjust to the tight strike zone, misfiring breaking balls and major league hitters sitting on the down the middle FBs he was forced to throw.

#113 Dman

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 03:02 PM

First, waiting now doesn't keep him any longer. Meyer is under Twins control through 2020 now. That won't change unless he stays in the minors basically until May 2015.

Second, the rotation isn't "full". All the spots are presently occupied by someone, but that's true of virtually every rotation or lineup in the league at any given time.

At least one of our starters (Correia) is a placeholder by both past performance and contract status. He is there for the very purpose of occupying the spot until someone better is ready to take over. What does he need a "leash" to prove? What is he supposed to sort out? His continued presence in the rotation will likely be a reward for his surprisingly decent 2013, and an effort by the Twins to try saving some of his salary. "Hey, if we give this guy a couple more months, we might be able to find someone to pay him his last $1-2 million in August/September, maybe even snag another Matt Macri type player to boot!"

Even if you take a slightly better view of Correia or Pelfrey than myself... would it kill this team to get out in front of something for a change? Do they know you don't always have to wait until a player fails to meet expectations for X number of games before you can make a move? Particularly when those expectations are pretty low to begin with. Just like with their hesitancy about signing free agents (or even modestly expensive amateurs) -- I know you can't always predict the future, but that's hardly a reason to never try, to the best of your abilities.

I'm probably jumping my own gun here -- I'd probably wait 3 weeks too. But the more I think about it, the more meaningless those 3 weeks seem. Very little outside of injury would change my mind in the intervening 3 weeks that Pelfrey should switch with Deduno, and Correia should be replaced by one of the starters from AAA. At best, the 3 weeks would serve as an additional audition period for the AAA starters, but that seems quite a sub-optimal use of the MLB rotation spot in the meantime.



According to this article if you wait it out and don't go super 2 you get 6.8 years versus 6. When it comes to waiting it appears you need to decide if you are ready to compete now or if you are rebuilding. There is no hard and fast rule and I think if Meyer continues to pitch like he has, the pressure will be strong to bring him up. I think he is the best pitcher the Twins have had in a long time and I would like him to be here as long as possible.

I realize Correia is a placeholder but I don't think the Twins will just DFA him unless things get even worse. They will need time to try and trade him or make room for Meyer in some way. I think that is likely June but I have been wrong many times before. If something happens sooner Meyer will have to be the catalyst that changes minds in the Front office.


http://mlb.mlb.com/n...t=.jsp&c_id=mlb

#114 spycake

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 03:13 PM

Three weeks ago the general sentiment was that we would not be able to score any runs and were going to lose 95 or 100 games. Now, we have to make immediate moves because we could be contenders. For god sake it is still April. Perhaps they should not have signed Pelfrey but they did so you don't just give up on the guy after a couple starts.


Yeah, our future just can't afford thoughtless "win now" moves, like swapping Deduno's role with a struggling Pelfrey, or calling up a consensus top 50 prospect and shifting Correia to the bullpen perhaps 3 weeks too early.

Is this not the same cry we heard for Gibson. Were there not several people here who spoke of the ignorance of the front office. Was it not written here that Gibson was better than anyone on our staff. We know how that turned out. Gibson might be there best pitcher this year but he was not ready. Some of you have memories of convenience.


Refresh my memory: aside from proving once and for all that PJ Walters was not a major league starting pitcher, what great benefit did the Twins or Gibson get from those extra weeks he spent in AAA at 2013?

The bulk of us here are not great prospect-rushers -- save your criticisms for the folks that occasionally chime in about promoting Buxton! We're talking about a timeline difference of a few weeks up to a few months, for a not-young AAA player who is performing well in the same role as a dead-end, expiring contract guy like Correia.

#115 spycake

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 03:19 PM

According to this article if you wait it out and don't go super 2 you get 6.8 years versus 6. When it comes to waiting it appears you need to decide if you are ready to compete now or if you are rebuilding. There is no hard and fast rule and I think if Meyer continues to pitch like he has, the pressure will be strong to bring him up. I think he is the best pitcher the Twins have had in a long time and I would like him to be here as long as possible.

I realize Correia is a placeholder but I don't think the Twins will just DFA him unless things get even worse. They will need time to try and trade him or make room for Meyer in some way. I think that is likely June but I have been wrong many times before. If something happens sooner Meyer will have to be the catalyst that changes minds in the Front office.


http://mlb.mlb.com/n...t=.jsp&c_id=mlb


We're already past the point where the Twins would be debating 6.8 vs 6 years of control for Meyer. They would have 6.8 if the called him up now. They would have only had 6 if he had opened the year in MLB.

The only issue is he could get paid more beginning in 2017 rather than 2018 if we wait another ~2 months.

And I don't advocate DFA for Correia. A shift to the bullpen would suffice for the moment, if no trade partners are found.

#116 Dman

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 03:37 PM

We're already past the point where the Twins would be debating 6.8 vs 6 years of control for Meyer. They would have 6.8 if the called him up now. They would have only had 6 if he had opened the year in MLB.

The only issue is he could get paid more beginning in 2017 rather than 2018 if we wait another ~2 months.

And I don't advocate DFA for Correia. A shift to the bullpen would suffice for the moment, if no trade partners are found.


Thank you for explaining that to me. Then I agree with you that as long as the years of control are the same, arbitration is arbitration and they should pay him what he is worth. I just didn't want to lose any years of control because if he is as good as we think he will be, I doubt our owners will outbid other teams for his services and with Boras who knows if he will cut us a deal to buy more years or not.

Once deemed ready bring him up and lets see what we've got.

#117 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 03:39 PM

[quote name='spycake']Yeah, our future just can't afford thoughtless "win now" moves, like swapping Deduno's role with a struggling Pelfrey, or calling up a consensus top 50 prospect and shifting Correia to the bullpen perhaps 3 weeks too early. QUOTE]

I would much rather watch Deduno so I have a problem with this scenario but that is not the point being made here my most posters. Most of the argument here simply ignores all the reasons for not bringing up Meyer, like the fact he is working on a new pitch that would make a crucial difference in his ceiling, because as fans we would like to see him. We are three weeks into the season. The premise that the merit of any moves have been substantiated at this point in the season is very premature in my estimation.

Edited by Major Leauge Ready, 29 April 2014 - 03:41 PM.


#118 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 03:48 PM

Feel free to list your Correia trade comparables here -- I think you may be over-rating Correia's record (or under-rating the records of pitchers who have netted such return in trade).


I'm thinking Bogarts, Middlebrook, and maybe Webster.... Might have to throw in Deunsing to get it to work.

Old BYTO joke, but in all serious, I doubt KC or Pelfrey (who has a 2nd year) get cut. KC will get a few more starts and Pelfrey will be guaranteed a shot at next year. If the Twins cannot get any value for KC, so be it, but it won't be for lack of trying.

#119 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 03:55 PM

OK...Let's say you have a baseball team. You have a choice of picking a pitcher for one game, which will determine whether your team gets into the World Series or not. You have to chose between Pelfrey, Correia, or Meyer to start the game for your team. The game is this Friday. Which pitcher do you chose and why?


I would say that's a loaded question, framed with a win-now mindset with the future being ignored. The reality as I see it is that this team isn't going to the world series. If it was, I think your decision is a no-brainer. The question at hand is what is best for Alex Meyer, and what is best for the org as a whole, and I don't see anything that indicates putting him in MLB right now is the right answer. As Brock stated, there could be a million reasons why he's this dominant. A few more starts isn't going to make or break it.

That said, I think the real disappointment is going to happen when Meyer ISNT called up.

#120 Brandon

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 04:48 PM

Oakland has 2 pitchers this season that are undergoing Tommy John surgury. MLBtraderumors suggest that they may be looking for a 6th pitcher for depth since they have no one left to turn to. That means they could soon be interested in Corriea. And if we trade him now and all of a sudden start having injuries to our pitching staff we will run out of pitching too as there is a drop off after Meyer and Deduno. Will May,Johnson, and Darnel Logan be able to fill in effectively if we replace Pelfry and Corriea and start having injuries?