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Article: How Much Longer Will Alex Meyer (and Twins Fans) Wait?

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 09:00 PM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...wins-Fans)-Wait

#2 drock2190

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 09:15 PM

Now I'm all excited too.

#3 RiggityRez

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 10:23 PM

I guess if it were up to me, if we see two more awful starts from Correia or Pelfrey, along with two more quality starts from Meyer, I think you bring him up. The Twins are in contention, lets see if they can keep it that way for awhile. It has been fun to watch, I can only imagine that it has been fun on the field and in the dugout. Reward the kid for pitching well and the players for winning more games than they have lost.

#4 maxisagod

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 11:21 PM

Send up one of the lefties, to spread out the log game at AA/AAA of LHP starters. If after 4-5 starts Johnson/Darnel can't hack it, then send up Meyer. If they show they are Major league ready, Than a Gibson, Meyer, Darnel back 3 is the beginnings of a rotation on a contender.

#5 kab21

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 11:33 PM

Send up one of the lefties, to spread out the log game at AA/AAA of LHP starters. If after 4-5 starts Johnson/Darnel can't hack it, then send up Meyer. If they show they are Major league ready, Than a Gibson, Meyer, Darnel back 3 is the beginnings of a rotation on a contender.


I don't get this fascination that you need to have a lefty in the rotation at the expense of a more talented starter. I hope that the Twins are able to get Meyer and Deduno into the rotation in the next month since they are the only non-rotation options that have a chance at being better than average.

#6 twinsin17

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 11:37 PM

Seth I share your excitement for Meyer. I'd like to see him hone his change up for the time being in AAA and see him as a later season call up, however. If he can nail that pitch down it will make his transition to the bigs much easier. No doubt he represents an upgrade over Pelfrey and Correia but it is more likely Duffey or Johnson gets the call first in the event of an injury or demotion given their spots on the 40 man and the fact that we have no LHPs in the rotation currently. You said it best when you said there is no risk to have him continue to make AAA starts. Since Meyer represents the future of the rotation and we realistically have a much better shot at contending 3-4 yrs down the road than this or next season I think an extra year of control is extremely valuable for the team in the long run.

#7 Dantes929

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 12:05 AM

First of all, I am excited about Meyer as well. He was my pitcher to click and Colabello my batter. He has great stuff but a 3.48 ERA isn't really anything to be excited about, he is learning a new pitch and unless you think he is going to cause the Twins to contend all year promoting him now at the possible cost of a year of having him at all much less a year of control is hardly worth rushing him. 2nd of all but someone please correct me if I am wrong, right now he is the 4th most effective starter in Rochester's rotation!! Darnell has a 1.69 ERA in 4 starts. Kris Johnson in 4 starts has a 2.86 ERA. Pino in 2 starts has a 1.17 ERA. If you are going to judge performances this early then why start with Meyer?

#8 kab21

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 12:17 AM

The Twins already have the extra season of control of Meyer. To gain an additional year of control at this point Meyer would have to stay in AAA until mid April 2015. If he was called up before July (floating date) Meyer would go to arbitration a year early though and potentially earn 5ish extra million.

#9 zchrz

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 01:33 AM

If his changeup has really taken that big a step forward with the change in grips, I would like to see him get a few more AAA starts to work on that. A nasty change opposed to an average one would make him an even better pitcher (3 + pitches coming with from the sky with his velocity and build puts him in the possible ace category).

It seems like he would have a better chance to hone that pitch (that he has thrown for 2 starts now) in the minors, to be called up in a month or so when he has fully forced the issue.

If they want more immediate help Deduno is there, Johnson in pitching well, Darnell is pitching well, Pino is pitching well. Its a shame May hasn't preformed because he probably would have had the first shot.

Edited by zchrz, 29 April 2014 - 01:37 AM.

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#10 twinstalker

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 04:12 AM

Sorry, Seth, if they're going to wait until June, they're going to wait until mid to late June. Super 2 isn't safely escaped from until the summer solstice!

#11 cmathewson

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 05:21 AM

If he's on an innings limit, why would you burn those precious innings in AAA? I'm all for waiting until he's ready. But if he's got nothing left to learn at AAA, bring him up.

Also, this contract stuff is nonsense. He'll get a long-term deal long before he's arbitration eligible.

#12 tjsyam921

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 05:31 AM

Does his service time start when he's called up or is it the cumulative time. For example if he were to hit a innings limit in August and being shut down for the season would that cut off a month of time?

#13 Sconnie

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 06:02 AM

If he's on an innings limit, why would you burn those precious innings in AAA? I'm all for waiting until he's ready. But if he's got nothing left to learn at AAA, bring him up.

Also, this contract stuff is nonsense. He'll get a long-term deal long before he's arbitration eligible.

Agreed, the FO will pay the man his due to keep him.

#14 TKGuy

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 06:07 AM

I think a couple more starts at AAA working on the change up might be helpful. Sure he probably walks too many also, but it's helpful that he can get out of jams by himself with the strikeout

#15 CRArko

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 06:19 AM

My guess as to what will happen (not to be confused with what I might want) is that first will come the Pelfrey-Deduno swap. After that, the shopping of Correia. Meyer will take that spot, which puts this in late June at the earliest. That would be my guess.

I would not feel bad to be proved wrong.
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#16 big dog

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 06:22 AM

Agreed, the FO will pay the man his due to keep him.


Boras does have that track record of his clients hitting free agency, but maybe we can arrange a conversation with Alex getting life lessons from Kendrys Morales, and Stephen Drew. Take the $$!

#17 kdrupp09

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 06:28 AM

Seth touched on it some in the article, but I believe the Twins will also attempt to line it up so that Meyer may get 2 straight starts at Target Field because the atmosphere/environment will be electric. Not saying that this will really influence the decision, however I do believe if they have to give Meyer an extra AAA start in order to line up 2 straight starts at home for Meyer they will.

#18 mike wants wins

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 06:36 AM

He's 24, not 19. He'll be 30 when they would lose him, not 26. But I expect them to keep him down "to be more consistent with his changeup" before coming up. I expect Pelfrey to continue being awful (as he has been the majority of his career, btw). I expect the value of Meyer's future starts to be low, since they'll cycle through much worse pitchers and start losing more. But hey, in the future they'll have the best players up right away, really.

#19 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 06:43 AM

Also, this contract stuff is nonsense. He'll get a long-term deal long before he's arbitration eligible.


I might be wrong but I don't believe there's a single instance of Boras doing this with a high profile client.

#20 Tibs

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 06:44 AM

If we go through two or three more times in the rotation and guys haven't had better results, some changes need to be made. I doubt Meyer will be the first one up as much as I wish he was. I'm very excited to see him. If he puts up a couple more starts in a row like his last two however, it would be very hard to not bring him up.
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#21 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 06:51 AM

I expect the value of Meyer's future starts to be low, since they'll cycle through much worse pitchers and start losing more. But hey, in the future they'll have the best players up right away, really.


I don't think this is fair. The Twins have certainly jerked around players in the past but if the player looks to be an unstoppable talent, he hits the Majors pretty quickly. Joe Mauer was up in his age 21 season. Liriano was up in his age 21 season. Arcia was up in his age 22 season. Hicks was named the starting CF in his age 23 season. Sano would have made the Majors in his age 21 season if not for the injury. Buxton has a shot at making it to the Majors in his age 20 season and almost certainly will be in Minnesota for his age 21 season.

As excited as I am to see Meyer, he has five AAA starts and he's still walking a few too many batters. There's absolutely nothing wrong with giving him a few more starts to see how the new changeup shakes out over more than two dominant starts.

#22 mike wants wins

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 06:58 AM

And if the changeup doesn't work, and he's still better than KC, Pelfrey, Nolasco, Hughes, and Gibson? Because everyone said he was better than them w/o the changeup, didn't they?

We can disagree that they have really changed, imo. Meyer is clearly better than any SP in MN right now, and isn't up. Seth and others keep telling me AAA doesn't matter, that a player can be promoted from AA, that I shouldn't want minor leaguers promoted faster. But now I'm told Meyer doesn't have enough AAA starts to be promoted.

But, I admit, you offer some good examples that maybe they have changed. I'd argue that they traded away two veteran CF and were too cheap to sign another CF to replace them, and that's why Hicks was up*. Mauer is an edge case, but I'll give you him and Arcia (though clearly they weren't certain on Arcia, since they signed Kubel and Bartlett to play the OF). Maybe I'm wrong, maybe things have changed. I hope you are right. But right now, Meyer is their best SP, and he's not up.

*that, and "no CF would sign here with Buxton on the horizon"....
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#23 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 07:10 AM

And if the changeup doesn't work, and he's still better than KC, Pelfrey, Nolasco, Hughes, and Gibson? Because everyone said he was better than them w/o the changeup, didn't they?

We can disagree that they have really changed, imo. Meyer is clearly better than any SP in MN right now, and isn't up.


He's *most likely* better than Pelfrey right now but the Twins have Meyer for 6-7 years. At this point, they have to do what's best for him as a player. We all saw what happened to Carlos Gomez because the Mets were impatient. I'm not saying Alex Meyer is Carlos Gomez, just pointing out that prospects can be negatively impacted by overeager front offices.

Hey, I'll be right next to you, hollering about Meyer if he's not up in late June and is dominating AAA but the thinking that leads to giving a guy a call-up after two dominant starts is how teams get burned by rushing prospects.

Maybe it was cold. Maybe the opposing lineups had off-days. Maybe the ump was overly generous. Maybe Meyer just flat-out got lucky. A lot can happen to influence two starts positively (or negatively) and when you're dealing with a guy who you control through the entirety of his prime seasons, it's not a bad idea to stand pat for a few starts and see how things shake out.

#24 spycake

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 07:15 AM

I might be wrong but I don't believe there's a single instance of Boras doing this with a high profile client.


I agree with you that the extra year of control is important -- Boras doesn't sign away years beyond that.

However, now that's past, and the debate is over the "super two" arbitration deadline. Plenty of Boras clients have signed long-term contracts buying out their arbitration seasons at reasonable rates. (Our favorite discussion topic Stephen Drew is one of them.)

Basically, the super two stuff should be more or less meaningless for the Twins. I suspect that it is, but I also suspect that the Twins have other silly reasons behind keeping him down that long -- Seth acknowledges that the Twins MLB starters have been disappointing, but kinda ignores their contracts or "leashes" as factors in Meyer's call-up. It probably won't delay Meyer by more than a month or two (like Gibson, Liriano, and Santana before him), but that could easily be the biggest factor in determining his arrival date.

#25 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 07:16 AM

I agree with you that the extra year of control is important -- Boras doesn't sign away years beyond that.

However, now that's past, and the debate is over the "super two" arbitration deadline. Plenty of Boras clients have signed long-term contracts buying out their arbitration seasons at reasonable rates. (Our favorite discussion topic Stephen Drew is one of them.)

Basically, the super two stuff should be more or less meaningless for the Twins. I suspect that it is, but I also suspect that the Twins have other silly reasons behind keeping him down that long -- Seth acknowledges that the Twins MLB starters have been disappointing, but kinda ignores their contracts or "leashes" as factors in Meyer's call-up. It probably won't delay Meyer by more than a month or two (like Gibson, Liriano, and Santana before him), but that could easily be the biggest factor in determining his arrival date.


If anyone in the Twins front office makes a decision based solely on Super 2 status, they deserve a kick in the crotch on behalf of a tired, downtrodden fanbase.

#26 spycake

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 07:29 AM

I don't think this is fair. The Twins have certainly jerked around players in the past but if the player looks to be an unstoppable talent, he hits the Majors pretty quickly. Joe Mauer was up in his age 21 season. Liriano was up in his age 21 season. Arcia was up in his age 22 season. Hicks was named the starting CF in his age 23 season. Sano would have made the Majors in his age 21 season if not for the injury. Buxton has a shot at making it to the Majors in his age 20 season and almost certainly will be in Minnesota for his age 21 season.

As excited as I am to see Meyer, he has five AAA starts and he's still walking a few too many batters. There's absolutely nothing wrong with giving him a few more starts to see how the new changeup shakes out over more than two dominant starts.


I was also going to list the example of Mauer, but remind folks that was ten years ago and we haven't really had any impact prospect debuts since then. I overlooked Liriano (although they arguably got back some of that service time in 2008).

Morneau is the other top prospect that springs to mind, and he was kept in AAA for awhile waiting for Dougie Baseball to have a graceful exit. That's more evidence in favor of my theory, that service time is less important to the Twins than gracefully opening a roster spot (isn't "clear path" the term that Rob Antony used recently?) Liriano's pitching a month and a half in the bullpen is another point to that (Santana too, obviously). Like I say, a delay of a month or two is pretty minor in the long scale view, but had the Twins narrowly missed the postseason in 2002-2004 or 2006, it could have been a bigger deal. Hopefully 2014 is a season where contention is an issue for awhile longer!

The other guys you list -- Hicks, Arcia, you could add Gomez who actually debuted in MLB with the Mets, or Rivas/Guzman from the bad old days -- were not likely stars either, so the calculus was a little different for them. Meyer should be decent evidence as to the Twins approach, and which way they go with Sano/Buxton will obviously be strong evidence.

#27 spycake

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 07:36 AM

If anyone in the Twins front office makes a decision based solely on Super 2 status, they deserve a kick in the crotch on behalf of a tired, downtrodden fanbase.


Some teams do it. The Rays were pretty egregious with Wil Myers, and the Twins are a similarly thrifty club. So it could be a factor, although I tend to think trying to salvage a veteran or wait out a vet's contract is a bigger factor for the Twins. It definitely isn't the "sole" factor for this club.

The thrift motivation is roughly the same either way, though.

#28 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 07:37 AM

Morneau is the other top prospect that springs to mind, and he was kept in AAA for awhile waiting for Dougie Baseball to have a graceful exit. That's more evidence in favor of my theory, that service time is less important to the Twins than gracefully opening a roster spot (isn't "clear path" the term that Rob Antony used recently?) Liriano's pitching a month and a half in the bullpen is another point to that (Santana too, obviously).


I think roster space has a lot to do with it for position players but I'm not so sure about pitchers... I think the (maddening at times) bullpen stints for Liriano and Santana had as much to do with controlling innings as rotation space, particularly in the case of Liriano, who was only 22 in 2006.

The Santana situation in 2003 was infuriating, though. He was only 23 at the time but he was so obviously better than some of the junk they were rolling out in the rotation.

#29 SD Buhr

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 07:40 AM

I'm typically OK with giving guys plenty of time to develop on the farm before bringing them up to the Big Leagues and I know that one of the worst things people who run a professional ballclub can do is change their philosophy out of emotion. I get that.

But today (and maybe just today, I don't know) after seeing the kind of excitement at the Wild's game 6 last night that I don't think has existed in Minnesota sports since the Twins' "game 163," there's a big part of me that would like to see the Twins finally just say, "screw it! We're going to put the best guys we've got on the field and give our fans something to get excited about, too!"

Based on my Twitter timeline last night, there were a bunch of Twins players at that Wild game and they had to dream of feeling that kind of buzz at a Twins game. If you're management, how do you look Mauer and Perkins (not to mention your manager, whose job is on the line) in the eyes and explain why you've got perhaps 3 of your organization's best starting pitchers right now still in Rochester while your MLB rotation is getting rocked?

I don't think it "hurts" Meyer or anyone else to make a few more AAA starts. Right now, though, I just don't like the message it sends to your team (or your fans) when it certainly appears that you have better pitchers available to you than you're putting on the hill every 5 days, but you won't bring them up.

Edited by SD Buhr, 29 April 2014 - 07:46 AM.


#30 mike wants wins

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 07:49 AM

Amen, SD. I bet that you'll get the "gotta worry about the long term, like next year or after" response though.
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