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Article: Market Inefficiency: Creativity Needed

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#31 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 06:30 AM

Here are the free agents for 2015 (this will be a smaller list by the time free agents are available for the Twins to sign, players may be re-signed or have contract extensions prior to becoming a free agent.

http://www.baseballp...gents-for-2015/

Second Basemen
Emilio Bonifacio
Alexi Casilla
Mark Ellis
Rafael Furcal
Chris Getz
Kelly Johnson
Nick Punto *
Brian Roberts
Ramon Santiago
Rickie Weeks *
Ben Zobrist *


Shortstops
Mike Aviles *
Asdrubal Cabrera
Yunel Escobar *
Alex Gonzalez
J.J. Hardy
Jed Lowrie
John McDonald
Hiroyuki Nakajima *
Jimmy Rollins *
(I'll add Stephen Drew here, assuming he signed a one-year deal)

Third Basemen
Wilson Betemit
Alberto Callaspo
Eric Chavez
Jack Hannahan *
Chase Headley
Casey McGehee
Donnie Murphy
Nick Punto *
Aramis Ramirez *
Hanley Ramirez
Pablo Sandoval
Ty Wigginton
Kevin Youkilis
(* – player whose current contract includes 2015 option.)


Do any of these guys look like the answer long term?

I don't think the free agent route will solve the problem, maybe the Twins could shell out a big contract for Hanley Ramirez (past his prime years?)? Or Ben Zobrist, who is not primarily a Short Stop, but seems to play there enough to be worth a look? I think Jed Lowrie is worth considering too.

Ultimately, though, it's more likely that the Twins will roll the dice with developing an internal option.

#32 spycake

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 06:49 AM

From http://www.thecubrep...xport/html/3506



I guess most players in the low minors will fit this limit.


For some reason, I always thought the no trade until June thing only applied the free agents who switched teams, but I could well be wrong. Similarly, I know there used to be some extra trade protection for guys on multi-year deals too but I think that went away.

#33 Ctwink

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 07:49 AM

I've always thought the Twins should take flyer on Drew and then if the roof caves in, flip him before July 31. Now that the season has turned up rosier than than some of the most positive projections (with much of the starting rotation acting like blind fools), wouldn't this be a perfect opportunity? Give him a one year contract with a mutually approved option year (or years) and sign him up. Although you lose a pick (even if you couldn't work out the "magic" with Boston that's been discussed above), you've instilled the fans with a little of "Hey, the team is doing something to build on this success" optimism which would certainly be worth more at the gate that one draft pick. Then when reality sets in, you trade him and try to (further) recoup the 2nd rounder that you lost. Seems like win/win to me...

#34 mike wants wins

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 10:22 AM

One market ineffiicency is to pay for the highest ranked non-US prospects you can, and to overpay for a year to get more of them. You know, like Sano......but that's not their plan either. Neither is trading prospects (or a 2nd round pick, that isn't likely to ever do much if anything at the MLB level) for a proven player. Not sure how to get out of this pickle, actually.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)


#35 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 10:28 AM

One market ineffiicency is to pay for the highest ranked non-US prospects you can, and to overpay for a year to get more of them. You know, like Sano......but that's not their plan either.


Instead, they're taking risks on signing more second-tier guys. It's not a bad strategy, all considering. It landed them guys like Lewis Thorpe.

Overall, I find it pretty hard to criticize the Twins' international activity over the past few years. Do I agree with every decision? No, not necessarily... but the Twins' strategy looks to be fundamentally solid.

#36 mike wants wins

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 11:08 AM

I think that's fair, Brock. It wouldn't be my approach, but it is their approach. We'll know if it works in about 4-7 years.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)


#37 SD Buhr

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 11:57 AM

Put me in the group that was on-board with signing Drew during the offseason, but sees no chance of it now. If you want him now, you have to sweeten the deal enough that he (and his agent) are willing to give up the bidding process that's almost certainly going to happen in June. That doesn't seem wise because it would likely involve more years and things like no-trade rights.

At this point, Drew's best bet is to simply wait another month and let any team with a need for him bid his price up. It seems like he and Boras overplayed their hand by not taking the QO, but I won't be at all surprised to see someone more than make up the money he lost once there is no longer draft pick compensation involved.

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