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Potential pitching changes

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#21 drivlikejehu

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 01:45 PM

May spent the past 2 years being a below average AA pitcher. And he wasn't really young for the league or anything, he's just is an extreme flyball pitcher who walked a lot of guys.

Three starts isn't enough to know if his control is really better. And even if it is, his overall profile is not overly encouraging.

#22 nicksaviking

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 02:01 PM

May spent the past 2 years being a below average AA pitcher. And he wasn't really young for the league or anything, he's just is an extreme flyball pitcher who walked a lot of guys.

Three starts isn't enough to know if his control is really better. And even if it is, his overall profile is not overly encouraging.


Which part of his profile isn't encouraging? He's a 6'5" workhorse who is among the league leader in strikeouts at every level he's been at. Besides the control, what else do you want from him?

#23 drivlikejehu

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 02:15 PM

Which part of his profile isn't encouraging? He's a 6'5" workhorse who is among the league leader in strikeouts at every level he's been at. Besides the control, what else do you want from him?


His two main pitches are a straight fastball that gets few groundballs, and a breaking ball that fools minor leaguers a lot more than it's going to fool big leaguers.

To put things in perspective - May is a more extreme flyball pitcher than Phil Hughes. Without making some adjustments I don't see how he can be an MLB starter.

#24 Siehbiscuit

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 02:25 PM

I think you're stereotyping a little too much with May. He was NOT below average at AA. He wasn't fantastic, but he was still pretty good. He made many fans and analysts Top 10 Twins prospect list in the best farm system in baseball. He looks to be a great innings eater and can strike people out. His control has actually improved tremendously. He may not be Greg Maddux (or even Nick Blackburn) in the control department, but he has continued to improve this weakness This year's start is continuing on that trend. He has looked very good this year.

#25 drivlikejehu

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 02:36 PM

His ERA was about a half run above league average in 2013, and worse in 2012, quite bad really. Out of 37 pitchers that threw over 100 innings last year, he was 29th in ERA. So maybe I should have said "far below average."

#26 Brandon

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 04:56 PM

A couple of things:

1) You don't get to just DL someone b/c they haven't done well. The DL is for injury purposes. If the guy is dealing with some pain, then absolutely DL him, but just putting him there b/c he's been ineffective isn't really an option, and I don't think making up an injury is ever reasonable.

2) I doubt they do anything just yet. The season is barely 3 weeks old. You won't see anything major done until June I'd imagine.


You also don't go from pitching solid to pitching terrible without an injury. Pelfry is extremely wild. to throw mechanics off that much he might be concealing an injury.... I didn't say they would definately go on the DL. but between now and the time it takes to make a move new information may be revealed thus leading to the DL. I'll make sure to enunciate everything next time instead of writing quickly.

#27 Brandon

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 05:00 PM

also I don't think they'll wait till June if Pelfry is still walking 4 per 5 innings and if Buron is giving up 2 or 3 runs per outing.

I can see the Twins looking to bring up Guerrier to see if he can still pitch and moving Pelfry to the pen and letting Deduno start in about another start or two. I think the Twins management really want to see the Twins win close to 80 games this year and being a little more impatient this season then in seasons past due to options available.

#28 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 06:02 PM

To answer your question, sample size. They may be ready. They may not. 3 starts doesn't determine if either guy is ready. I'd call them up 3 starts in if someone got hurt and you needed a body... not to replace anyone.

If there's another reason, it would be 40 man related. I'm not sure offhand if they are on the 40 man or not, but if they aren't, they aren't getting called up until after guys on the 40 get their crack first.


Yes, I agree.
The poster i quoted said definitively he is NOT ready. I was curious what he's seen to know that for sure.

#29 kab21

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 06:23 PM

May spent the past 2 years being a below average AA pitcher. And he wasn't really young for the league or anything, he's just is an extreme flyball pitcher who walked a lot of guys.

Three starts isn't enough to know if his control is really better. And even if it is, his overall profile is not overly encouraging.


This is exactly what I was talking about when I said that he's as ready as he will ever be. The problem is that I don't think he's a really good prospect.

#30 Thrylos

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 06:59 PM

May spent the past 2 years being a below average AA pitcher. And he wasn't really young for the league or anything, he's just is an extreme flyball pitcher who walked a lot of guys..


Got to love baseball reference new "age" feature. Here is May's page. The negative numbers in that column are the years he was younger than average for the league. The fact is that he has been young for the league at every step of his career and right now he is 3 years younger than the average AAA pitcher.

And if you look at the "average AA pitcher", you will find that he struck out much fewer than May and had higher FIP than May as well...
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#31 tobi0040

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 07:27 PM

May spent the past 2 years being a below average AA pitcher. And he wasn't really young for the league or anything, he's just is an extreme flyball pitcher who walked a lot of guys.

Three starts isn't enough to know if his control is really better. And even if it is, his overall profile is not overly encouraging.


May was really penalized by two bad starts last year. He gave up 0, 1, 2, or 3 ER in 14 of his 28 starts. If you take out his best two and worst two starts, he had a 4.15 ERA in the other 24 with over a k per inning. It is not lets get him up here right now but it is certainly not below average.

#32 drivlikejehu

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 09:06 PM

May was really penalized by two bad starts last year. He gave up 0, 1, 2, or 3 ER in 14 of his 28 starts. If you take out his best two and worst two starts, he had a 4.15 ERA in the other 24 with over a k per inning. It is not lets get him up here right now but it is certainly not below average.


Actually that is still a subpar ERA. The Eastern League average last year was around 4.00. And giving up more than 3 ER in 50% of AA starts is pretty terrible.

Look, it would be great if something clicked with May and he became a #3/4 starter or whatever. The Twins desperately need it. The chances are just really low. He has the stuff and command of a reliever.

#33 nicksaviking

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 06:51 AM

His two main pitches are a straight fastball that gets few groundballs, and a breaking ball that fools minor leaguers a lot more than it's going to fool big leaguers.

To put things in perspective - May is a more extreme flyball pitcher than Phil Hughes. Without making some adjustments I don't see how he can be an MLB starter.



Flyball pitchers are getting a bad rap these days. I'm not sure why, history's best pitchers were all flyball pitchers. http://espn.go.com/b...ndball-pitchers

Even if Bill James is wrong, who would want a groundball pitcher with this infield defense?

If his breaking ball ends up being subpar at the MLB level, sure we have a problem, but I'm not sure why you jump to that conclusion now.

#34 blindeke

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 07:10 AM

The season is WAY too young to make any changes. Gibson has looked phenomenol, despite being squeezed by every umpire calling his games so far.


Again today, vs. the Rays, Gibson threw a couple excellent 2-strike pitches that were right on the corner and the ump didn't give them to him. I feel like a loser (i.e. White Sox fan) for saying this, but for some reason Gibson doesn't seem to get the close pitches called his way!

#35 tobi0040

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 07:41 AM

Actually that is still a subpar ERA. The Eastern League average last year was around 4.00. And giving up more than 3 ER in 50% of AA starts is pretty terrible.

Look, it would be great if something clicked with May and he became a #3/4 starter or whatever. The Twins desperately need it. The chances are just really low. He has the stuff and command of a reliever.


I just double checked, it was 0, 1, or 2 runs in 14 of his starts. He had 4 starts with 3 ER, so he gave up more than 3 ER in 10 of 28. His 171 K in 165 IP is certainly well above average. His 10.6 K per 9 in the minors as a whole is certainly above average as well.

#36 cmathewson

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 07:44 AM

His two main pitches are a straight fastball that gets few groundballs, and a breaking ball that fools minor leaguers a lot more than it's going to fool big leaguers.

To put things in perspective - May is a more extreme flyball pitcher than Phil Hughes. Without making some adjustments I don't see how he can be an MLB starter.


His best pitch is the change-up that fools a lot of guys, more than a guy per inning, most of them swinging. True, his breaking pitch is nothing special, but he throws it less than 5% of the time.
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#37 cmathewson

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 07:55 AM

May spent the past 2 years being a below average AA pitcher. And he wasn't really young for the league or anything, he's just is an extreme flyball pitcher who walked a lot of guys.

Three starts isn't enough to know if his control is really better. And even if it is, his overall profile is not overly encouraging.


This is what bugs me about these so-called analysts like K-Law. They watch a guy throw on the side and they think they know everything about the guy. K-Law visited the Twins spring training complex and saw May warming up and struggling to throw his fastball where he wanted. Based on 10 minutes of warm-ups, he tweets "I don't know if May will every be a major league pitcher. He only has two viable pitches--the straight fastball and a breaking ball--and only one of them is potential major league pitch." He didn't even watch him in one game, nor did he look at the numbers or scouting reports. Now every guy who has read K-Law thinks he's an expert on Trevor May.
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#38 drivlikejehu

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 08:14 AM

This is what bugs me about these so-called analysts like K-Law. They watch a guy throw on the side and they think they know everything about the guy. K-Law visited the Twins spring training complex and saw May warming up and struggling to throw his fastball where he wanted. Based on 10 minutes of warm-ups, he tweets "I don't know if May will every be a major league pitcher. He only has two viable pitches--the straight fastball and a breaking ball--and only one of them is potential major league pitch." He didn't even watch him in one game, nor did he look at the numbers or scouting reports. Now every guy who has read K-Law thinks he's an expert on Trevor May.


May has been a name for years in prospect discussions. Just as a random example, here is a December 2009 Hardball Times blurb on him:

"6. Trevor May: May sports a low-90s fastball with strong movement and an average curveball that could grow into his out pitch. Just 20 years old with impressive strikeout numbers in the Sally League, the 6-foot-5 May has room to grow but much to learn when it comes to locating his arsenal."

If people are wrong about May, it's not because of a random 2014 Keith Law quote. May has had skeptics since before he was even drafted. So unfortunately the narrative you came up with is completely wrong.

Edited to add:

Here is a Phillies' fan site scouting report on him from 2012:

http://crashburnalle...ing-trevor-may/

And a scouting report from 2010:

http://rotoscouting....ng-report-2010/

Edited by drivlikejehu, 23 April 2014 - 08:21 AM.


#39 cmathewson

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 08:38 AM

May has been a name for years in prospect discussions. Just as a random example, here is a December 2009 Hardball Times blurb on him:

"6. Trevor May: May sports a low-90s fastball with strong movement and an average curveball that could grow into his out pitch. Just 20 years old with impressive strikeout numbers in the Sally League, the 6-foot-5 May has room to grow but much to learn when it comes to locating his arsenal."

If people are wrong about May, it's not because of a random 2014 Keith Law quote. May has had skeptics since before he was even drafted. So unfortunately the narrative you came up with is completely wrong.

Edited to add:

Here is a Phillies' fan site scouting report on him from 2012:

http://crashburnalle...ing-trevor-may/

And a scouting report from 2010:

http://rotoscouting....ng-report-2010/


I just found it interesting that your argument about May being not much of a prospect was almost an exact quote of something K-Law tweeted a couple of months ago. Perhaps it's a coincidence. But you have to ignore some gaudy strike-out numbers and you can't have watched him pitch for any length of time to have K-Law's perspective. Not even mentioning his best pitch is a dead give-away.
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#40 drivlikejehu

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 08:51 AM

I just found it interesting that your argument about May being not much of a prospect was almost an exact quote of something K-Law tweeted a couple of months ago. Perhaps it's a coincidence. But you have to ignore some gaudy strike-out numbers and you can't have watched him pitch for any length of time to have K-Law's perspective. Not even mentioning his best pitch is a dead give-away.


Again, that's plainly wrong. He had 182 strikeouts in 2010 - a huge number that no one "ignored," but the scouting reports on him have always expressed reservations regarding his fastball, offspeed stuff, and command. Minor league numbers do not always translate to the Majors, something any prospect watcher should know.

If May now has a plus changeup, it's a very new development. He didn't have a good one last year or at any time before then. I didn't see any talk about it in Spring Training. When exactly did he master the pitch, and does any objective support for your assertion exist?