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Time for Mauer to Smell the Coffee

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#21 DocBauer

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Posted 20 April 2014 - 07:16 PM

Mauer has a career .322 BA and .467 SLG.

Mauer has a career .333 BA and .480 SLG with RISP.

Mauer has a career .336 BA and .469 SLG with men on base.

But hey, let's not let facts get in the way of a good argument.


Thank you. Thank you. Thank you Brock.

You have done nothing here but prove points I've made myself before.

We all see a big strapping athlete and many have wondered why he can't just be a consistent 28-30+ HR hitter and be done with it. But it's not that simple. Boggs once concentrated on power alone and saw his other numbers drop. Same with Gwynn. Two of the greatest hitters of their generations. Mauer is a pure hitter, something that doesn't come along every day. His natural approach and stroke is to swing at good pitches, ignore bad ones, take a walk when it's there, and hit line drives all over the field. With any kind of decent hitters ahead of him, and behind, he will hit .300+ with an OB of .400+ with 40+ doubles and double digit HR totals. Out from behind the plate now, stronger and healthier for a whole season and 150 games played the HR totals may climb to 15-18 and maybe 20.

What team wouldn't kill for a bat like that in their lineup?

Mauer's biggest problem has been unreal expectations and the lineup around him the past few seasons, whether due to injury or talent level.

Gardy has him hitting 2 in the lineup for current reasons that I understand. But Brock's numbers show very clearly why I believe his best and most productive spot in the lineup is in the 3 hole. I hope over the course of player development/production this season and next we'll see that happen again.

#22 Willihammer

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Posted 20 April 2014 - 07:28 PM

In a recent game, Mauer was up with runners on 1st and 3rd with 2 out. Dozier promptly stole 2nd base leaving first base open. The team the Twins were playing elected to pitch to Joe. The count was 2-0. Here comes a fastball, middle in (a pitch a hitter with the mentality and approach to drive in runs would have come out of his socks to hit). Joe took strike one. After a ball outside, here came another fastball on the outside edge, not as good a pitch to hit as strike one, but still a pitch Mauer knocks to leftfield for a base hit. Choosey Joe takes strike two. Finally, ball four arrives outside off the plate, and Joe takes his walk to fill the bases, leaving the RBI work to "the next guy."


Ok, if you want to grill Mauer on this particular at-bat let's get into it.

What game was it?
What was the score?
what was the inning?

#23 cmathewson

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Posted 20 April 2014 - 07:29 PM

I am worried about the strikeouts. I'm worried that he's not as mentally fresh as he was before the concussion. I don't think he should try to do anything different. But maybe he's lost something since the concussion.
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#24 cmathewson

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Posted 20 April 2014 - 07:32 PM

Ok, if you want to grill Mauer on this particular at-bat let's get into it.

What game was it?
What was the score?
what was the inning?


It was the last extra inning game against Oakland. The Twins were down by three runs with two outs. They needed base runners. If I recall correctly, Dozier ran on the 2-0 pitch. They gave him one more strike on the outside edge and the other pitches were well off the plate. Anybody who criticizes that at bat doesn't understand the game.
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#25 SweetOne69

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Posted 20 April 2014 - 07:35 PM

It may be just me, but it appears that Mauer is standing further away from the plate this year than in the past. Maybe that is why he not only strikes out looking on pitches on the outside corner but he argues the call.

#26 Halsey Hall

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Posted 20 April 2014 - 07:37 PM

Mauer swung at a first pitch strike today. Time for some of us to smell the roses.

#27 Willihammer

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Posted 20 April 2014 - 07:44 PM

It was the last extra inning game against Oakland. The Twins were down by three runs with two outs. They needed base runners. If I recall correctly, Dozier ran on the 2-0 pitch. They gave him one more strike on the outside edge and the other pitches were well off the plate. Anybody who criticizes that at bat doesn't understand the game.


Ok so this game?

http://www.baseball-...201404090.shtml

[TABLE="class: sortable stats_table"]
[TR="class: partial_table black_text bold_text shade_text"]
[TD="colspan: 12, align: left"]Bottom of the 11th, Twins Batting, Behind 4-7, Athletics' Dan Otero facing 7-8-9 [/TD]
[/TR]

[TD="align: right"]b11[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4-7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]---[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4,(2-1) [/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]MIN[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]C. Herrmann[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]D. Otero[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]92%[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Single to RF (Ground Ball thru 2B-1B)[/TD]


[TD="align: right"]b11[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4-7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1--[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2,(0-1) [/TD]
[TD="align: left"]O[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]MIN[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]A. Hicks[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]D. Otero[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]96%[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Groundout: 1B-SS/Forceout at 2B (Weak 2B-1B)[/TD]


[TD="align: right"]b11[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4-7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1--[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4,(0-2) [/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]MIN[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]E. Escobar[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]D. Otero[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-6%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]90%[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Single to LF (Fly Ball to LF-CF); Hicks to 2B[/TD]


[TD="align: right"]b11[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4-7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12-[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4,(1-2) [/TD]
[TD="align: left"]O[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]MIN[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]B. Dozier[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]D. Otero[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]96%[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Strikeout Swinging[/TD]


[TD="align: right"]b11[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4-7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12-[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]6,(3-2) [/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]MIN[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]J. Mauer[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]D. Otero[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-5%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]91%[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Walk; Hicks to 3B; Escobar to 2B[/TD]


[TD="align: right"]b11[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4-7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]123[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]1,(0-0) [/TD]
[TD="align: left"]O[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]MIN[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]T. Plouffe[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]D. Otero[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]100%[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Lineout: 3B (SS-3B Hole)[/TD]

[/TABLE]



Yup, I'd say Mauer handled that perfectly.

#28 Deduno Abides

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Posted 20 April 2014 - 08:44 PM

Pedroia is hitting .250 with no HR. Chris Davis is hitting .241 with one HR. Cano is hitting .268 with one HR. It's a little early to panic about Mauer. His year-end statistics will likely be much better than his current statistics and he will probably seem to be driving the offense at various times this year. That said, the strike-outs and swinging strikes are concerns. Whether they are a blip or an early indication of age-related decline is hard to know.

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#29 MichiganTwins

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Posted 20 April 2014 - 09:13 PM

Gosh, Why doesnt Mauer play Shortstop? Doesnt he see our shortstops cant hit? WHy doesnt he tell Gardy that I am playing shortstop today and I am going to hit three homers each hitting the pole.......Come one guys, seriously lets wait this out. Personally, I think he might be in the middle of an adjustment from not being catcher and knowing the umps strike zone as well as he might if he were catching. Joe is going to be fine. Maybe we should worry about other players rather than hate our best player.

#30 darin617

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Posted 20 April 2014 - 09:50 PM

Spot on Top Gun. How could anyone debate this? Take take take take take.


Exactly, a complete coward when it counts. How many times in close games with RISP does Mauer draw a walk and leave it up to the next hitter. And I don't just mean this season.

#31 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 20 April 2014 - 10:45 PM

I don't think it's that easy. You're talking about completely altering a guy's approach to the plate.

We have no idea what kind of results would come from altering that approach. Would it help the Twins? Possibly. Are we guaranteed that the results would improve his output? Absolutely not.

It might not be that easy, that's true. However, I'm not talking about completely altering his approach. What I think would benefit the Twins is if he looked for spots, and certain pitches in predictable counts, to alter his approach.

And while I certainly concur the results are hard to predict, it's worth noting his two best years in terms of BA and OBP happened in the same years he posted his best SLG. So I think it's fair to question the often stated opinion that looking for spots to drive the ball will necessarily lower his other stats.

#32 Dainir

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Posted 20 April 2014 - 11:30 PM

Mauer takes with RISP because he understands its a team game and he is batting before the clean up batter. It is the clean ups job to get everyone home. So you want him to hit clean up? just look at the numbers posted earlier in this post, the clean-up should be the guy that will change the game with one swing of his bat.

That isn't the type of hitter that Joe is. You play best playing to your strengths and capitalizing on them. What matters at the end of the game is the number of runs scored.

If you look at the team's stats in the 10 years since Mauer joined the team, there are 5 years that Mauer wasn't either first or second in runs scored. The seasons he wasn't: 2011, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004. 2011 was his injury shortened season where he played 82 games. 2006 He was tied for third most runs. 2004 and 2005 were his first two seasons.

Mauer's prowess at getting on base to set up the cleanup hitter, was the beauty of M&M boys. Now that we have Colabello hitting like Moreneau of old, the line up is functioning as it ought to, and is producing runs.

#33 Pius Jefferson

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Posted 20 April 2014 - 11:44 PM

Exactly, a complete coward when it counts. How many times in close games with RISP does Mauer draw a walk and leave it up to the next hitter. And I don't just mean this season.


Not sure if serious?

#34 howeda7

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Posted 21 April 2014 - 12:01 AM

I normally stay out of Mauer-bashing threads, but I have to admit the strike-outs are officially a concern. Is there any chance it's a vision problem?

#35 Jdosen

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Posted 21 April 2014 - 12:24 AM

I normally stay out of Mauer-bashing threads, but I have to admit the strike-outs are officially a concern. Is there any chance it's a vision problem?

Maybe, and perhaps it's a bit concussion-related as well. If I remember correctly, Morneau started slow the year he got one when he was hit in the head with a pitch in Seattle and subsequently rebounded. If he's still hitting like this in mid-May to early-June, I'll be a little more worried, but right now I think it's simply a case of SSS.
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#36 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 21 April 2014 - 04:07 AM

Is it too late to draft Prior or Tex instead?

#37 jgfellows

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 08:22 AM

Yeah! Plus what is Mauer doing to fix global warming? It's earth day and he hasn't done Jack to lower or carbon footprint!!

#38 tobi0040

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 08:50 AM

Yeah! Plus what is Mauer doing to fix global warming? It's earth day and he hasn't done Jack to lower or carbon footprint!!


First off, that was very funny.

For people criticizing Mauer and wanting more, what would an ideal year in BA, OBP, OPS, and HR for Mauer look like? What would make you happy? Let's not beat around the bush in terms of leadership, locker room speeches, first pitch strikes, or whatever. Let's get something we can analyze and evaluate in terms of numbers.

#39 CRArko

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 08:53 AM

First off, that was very funny.

For people criticizing Mauer and wanting more, what would an ideal year in BA, OBP, OPS, and HR for Mauer look like? What would make you happy? Let's not beat around the bush in terms of leadership, locker room speeches, first pitch strikes, or whatever. Let's get something we can analyze and evaluate in terms of numbers.


I have doubts there is anything that will please everyone.

#40 70charger

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 09:46 AM

I am worried about the strikeouts. I'm worried that he's not as mentally fresh as he was before the concussion. I don't think he should try to do anything different. But maybe he's lost something since the concussion.


This is the thing that scares me the most. Morneau was having an MVP year pre-concussion, and he's been hanging around .750 OPS since. It was a real career-killer. I am honestly a little bit worried that Mauer won't be the same either.

On the other hand, there's nothing that 15 games will tell us about whether the effects are permanent. I think he must be rusty, and I think it's at least possible that there are still some lingering concussion effects, but only time will tell.