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Article: Rotation Reinforcements Waiting in the (Red) Wings

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#21 Lefty

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Posted 16 April 2014 - 12:43 PM

We have 8 potential starters before a drop off of potential. That's pretty impressive. The 8 are the 5 starting now plus Deduno, Meyer, and May.



I guess I just can't get that excited. Drop off of potential? I don't find it impressive to have a starting rotation of #5 starters and 3 guys in the minors who for some reason haven't beat them out yet. The Twins have to find a new way to evaluate pitching talent, whether through the draft, trades, or free agency. We haven't produced a pitcher for a loooooong time. Gibson is getting there, and I hope he stays on an upward path.

Average pitching depth is not impressive. Two or three studs at the top of the rotation are. ACES win games in the playoffs boys, not sub-par pitching depth.

#22 jimbo92107

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Posted 16 April 2014 - 12:48 PM

Right, he is a fly ball pitcher with a propensity for the HR balls. Keeping guys off base is needed. I would like to his his Batting Ave Against go down, its not terrible now, but not great


Fly ball pitcher. Good grief, why does a major league baseball team want a pitcher whose stuff winds up going over people's heads? Is there no way Tevor May can throw a pitch that results in a grounder? Or do they plan to use him in short relief after several innings of Gibson's sinkers, hoping for a bunch of pop-ups?

#23 jimbo92107

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Posted 16 April 2014 - 12:51 PM

That does make me feel better about the rotation this year. If Deduno moves to the rotation and Burton is either hurt or in a prolonged slump, who gets the next call to the pen? There's Guerrier and Pressly and who else Tonkin is already up.


How fleeting is fame. Has everybody forgotten about Ryan "Elvis" Pressly? Last year they were talking about him like a Trevor May type developmental prospect. Great stuff, lacks polish. Seems to me Pressly should be on the list of possibles, at least as likely as Trevor May.

#24 jimbo92107

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Posted 16 April 2014 - 01:01 PM

We have 8 potential starters before a drop off of potential. That's pretty impressive. The 8 are the 5 starting now plus Deduno, Meyer, and May.


Of the three you listed, May is the most likely to implode, given his prior reputation for shaky control. Deduno isn't a precision pitcher either, but he misses bats better than any other Twins starter, and he manages to work around his walks.

Luckily there's no reason right now to make any changes. The starters are showing signs of life. Gibson looks like a young horse, Correia looked good in his latest, Pelfrey is gradually finding himself, Nolasco is a bulldog, and Hughes needs to mix it up a little better. I'd still consider swapping one of these guys, maybe Hughes, with Deduno, just so the staff doesn't look too similar.

#25 S.

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Posted 16 April 2014 - 02:18 PM

Pelfrey is gradually finding himself.

If by finding himself, you mean finding his way to a demotion, than yes, he is doing a pretty good job.

#26 drivlikejehu

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Posted 16 April 2014 - 02:41 PM

The Twins have one of the worst rotations in MLB. The notion there is "depth" makes no sense at all. Pretty much every team has "depth" in terms of AAAA players, and even if they didn't the waiver wire offers up that level of talent regularly.

In Rochester the Twins have Meyer, who didn't throw many innings last year and is deserving of some caution, and May, a gopher-prone pitcher with subpar command who was mediocre for 2 years in AA. Johnson and Darnell could maybe pitch some middle relief, but don't provide real rotation depth.

#27 Mr. Ed

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Posted 16 April 2014 - 02:51 PM

How much longer before Diamond is cut loose? Getting bombed again today in Rochester, 5 runs/10 hits before he got an out in the 4th inning.

#28 Mr. Ed

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Posted 16 April 2014 - 02:52 PM

7 runs 11 hits in 4 innings. blech.

#29 longstrangetrip

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Posted 16 April 2014 - 03:09 PM

It seems to me that Phil Hughes is given way too much slack in this forum and others that I follow, and should be on a shorter leash than Pelfrey and Correia. He hasn't won a game since last July, was terrible the last half of 2013 (6.65 ERA), and has come out of the box this year with 3 bad starts. Last year the Vanimal was given 10 starts before being demoted...way too many in my opinion, but necessary due to our poor depth. With Deduno miscast in the bullpen, Hughes should be given no more than 6 starts this year to figure it out. If he is still struggling after that, he needs a ticket to Rochester to try to regain form.

#30 Mr. Ed

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Posted 16 April 2014 - 03:17 PM

Hughes is too awesome. Take away his bad innings and he's the stud the Twins want. Unfortunately, he has too many bad innings.

#31 cmathewson

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Posted 16 April 2014 - 03:22 PM

I guess I just can't get that excited. Drop off of potential? I don't find it impressive to have a starting rotation of #5 starters and 3 guys in the minors who for some reason haven't beat them out yet.


So they have to beat out the starters we have to be worth anything, regardless of where they are in their development. I see.
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#32 Dantes929

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Posted 16 April 2014 - 03:36 PM

"I was high on Pelfrey to start out the season thinking he's two years removed from TJ, but I'm one or two more train-wreck starts away from hopping off that train." But that's the thing. No one is giving him the one or two more chances and the assumption is that they will be train wrecks. Nolasco was horrible his 1st two starts and Hughes and Correia were not much better and Hughes still isn't. Last year the leash was 10 games. Better guys waiting in the wings but the leash should still be at least 6 games. 4 more times around the rotation and then start talking about who Deduno or Meyer should replace if those two are still throwing well.

#33 Thrylos

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Posted 16 April 2014 - 03:51 PM

Deduno isn't a precision pitcher either, but he misses bats better than any other Twins starter, and he manages to work around his walks.


That's not true. As a starter last season Deduno's K% was 14.5%

Here are career K% averages for Twins' starters (with 2013 K% in parenthesis) :

Nolasco: 19.2 % (19.8%)
Hughes: 19.8 % (18.9%)
Pelfrey: 13.2 % (14.9 %)
Correia: 15.0 % (12.8%)
Gibson: SSS 12.2% MLB, 21.1% AAA

The fact is that Deduno might miss more bats on the walk way, but is pretty much on the bottom of the list compared to the other Twins' starters as far as strikeouts go as a starter.

I just don't get the Deduno love... he is a AAAA pitcher like Diamond.
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#34 Nick Nelson

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Posted 16 April 2014 - 04:00 PM

It seems to me that Phil Hughes is given way too much slack in this forum and others that I follow, and should be on a shorter leash than Pelfrey and Correia.

Hughes' BABIP right now is .409. Yes, to some extent it is his fault that so much damage is being done when hitters make contact, but no one's going to keep giving up hits on 40+ percent of balls in play.

And the big key is that way fewer hitters ARE making contact against Hughes. He's striking out 25 percent of opponents; next highest Twins starter is Correia at 13 percent. Long-term, racking up all those automatic outs is going to help PH fare a lot better than the rest of the rotation, especially if he continues to limit walks (his BB rate is second-lowest among Twins starters).

Again, I'm not saying Hughes isn't at fault in any way for his struggles, but he's pitching a lot better than his results suggest. That can't be said about the rest of this team's starters.

How fleeting is fame. Has everybody forgotten about Ryan "Elvis" Pressly? Last year they were talking about him like a Trevor May type developmental prospect.

Huh? I don't think anyone who knew what they were talking about was making any such comparisons.

#35 Nick Nelson

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Posted 16 April 2014 - 04:03 PM

I just don't get the Deduno love... he is a AAAA pitcher like Diamond.


Unlike Diamond, he has basically had nothing but success over the past two years -- minors, majors, WBC, spring, take your pick.

Whether or not he racks up tons of strikeouts, Deduno doesn't give up hits. That's been a sustainable skill for him for basically his entire career. He's a unique pitcher and IMO needs to be evaluated differently from most others, much like a knuckleballer.

#36 AHSaves

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Posted 16 April 2014 - 06:20 PM

Deduno IS like a knuckleballer except he doesn't even know where the pitch is going to go minimally! I don't get the Deduno love either. The guy is 30 years old and still can't control the cut or run of a fastball. He's a circus out there (definitely entertaining sometimes).

#37 tobi0040

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Posted 17 April 2014 - 09:06 AM

Hughes' BABIP right now is .409. Yes, to some extent it is his fault that so much damage is being done when hitters make contact, but no one's going to keep giving up hits on 40+ percent of balls in play.

And the big key is that way fewer hitters ARE making contact against Hughes. He's striking out 25 percent of opponents; next highest Twins starter is Correia at 13 percent. Long-term, racking up all those automatic outs is going to help PH fare a lot better than the rest of the rotation, especially if he continues to limit walks (his BB rate is second-lowest among Twins starters).

Again, I'm not saying Hughes isn't at fault in any way for his struggles, but he's pitching a lot better than his results suggest. That can't be said about the rest of this team's starters.


Huh? I don't think anyone who knew what they were talking about was making any such comparisons.


Going off memory, I think Hughes has had 12 scoreless innings and 12 ER in the other 3. So on top of an unlucky BABIP, that bad luck has been squeezed into three innings for the most part.

#38 tobi0040

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Posted 17 April 2014 - 09:10 AM

Unlike Diamond, he has basically had nothing but success over the past two years -- minors, majors, WBC, spring, take your pick.

Whether or not he racks up tons of strikeouts, Deduno doesn't give up hits. That's been a sustainable skill for him for basically his entire career. He's a unique pitcher and IMO needs to be evaluated differently from most others, much like a knuckleballer.


Knuckler or a Mariano Rivera type where nobody can square him up. Rivera's HR per 9 was .5, Deduno has a very impressive .8 in MLB.

#39 jokin

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Posted 17 April 2014 - 09:17 AM

Going off memory, I think Hughes has had 12 scoreless innings and 12 ER in the other 3. So on top of an unlucky BABIP, that bad luck has been squeezed into three innings for the most part.


And additionally confirmed by an anomalously low strand rate (Mauer's gaffe hurt him in this regard on Tuesday) and very respectable FIP, xFIP and SIERA numbers in the 3s. And he didn't get a lot of help from the plate umpire on Tuesday, either:


http://pitchfx.texas...14&to=4/16/2014

#40 tobi0040

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Posted 17 April 2014 - 09:23 AM

And additionally confirmed by an anomalously low strand rate (Mauer's gaffe hurt him in this regard on Tuesday) and very respectable FIP, xFIP and SIERA numbers in the 3s. And he didn't get a lot of help from the plate umpire on Tuesday, either:


http://pitchfx.texas...14&to=4/16/2014


Yeah, quite the gap between ERA (7.20) and FIP (3.72). I count six pitches in the zone called as balls and exactly zero pitches out of the zone called strikes.

Edited by tobi0040, 17 April 2014 - 09:44 AM.