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.500 Over/Under

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#1 Physics Guy

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 03:54 PM

The Twins have me on a roller coaster right now. After the first game against Cleveland they were at 1-3 and could easily have been 0-4. Then they won the next to to make it back to .500 for the second time (if you count 0-0). Then they stunk up the joint against Oakland to go 3-6 and follow that up with a sweep of KC to make it back to .500 once again. At this point, I would be quite happy if they could continue flirting with .500. I'm not saying I think that will happen, but if the pitchers can throw like they have the last three we might have a chance. So my question is, how many games do the Twins go into this year with a .500 record or better to start the day. At the start of the year I was starting to worry it might be 1. They are currently at 3 if you count opening day. I set the over-under at 12. What say you?

#2 ashburyjohn

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 04:13 PM

I'll take the under. Hope the prize is as good as USAFChief is offering. What's the tiebreaker?

#3 longstrangetrip

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 04:36 PM

I'm on the under also, but I think it's a good question...and with the talent waiting in the minors, I would be happy to see them in the upper 70s in wins.

I have a tendency to be a little knee-jerky, and I want to believe that our pitching is on the cusp of being good after 3 great starting performances this weekend. But we have to remember that KC is by far the worst hitting team in the AL in the opening weeks. Let's see if Hughes and Pelf can keep it going in Toronto.

(Closed circuit note to self...remember to come back and edit this post if our starting pitching continues to dominate against the Jays.)

#4 Reider

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 05:11 PM

Under

I have a feeling the Twins will lose at least 2 of 3 against Toronto unless the pitching is lights out, which will be tough to do against Toronto's hitters.

#5 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 06:01 AM

If I remember right, the April schedule was set to be pretty tough. The fact that they are .500 this far into it is encouraging, but I suspect they won't finish at that mark. If they keep flirting with .500 over the next two weeks, they may very well continue it through the season.

#6 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 06:07 AM

If I remember right, the April schedule was set to be pretty tough. The fact that they are .500 this far into it is encouraging, but I suspect they won't finish at that mark. If they keep flirting with .500 over the next two weeks, they may very well continue it through the season.


Eh, I'm not quite that confident. Right now, I think the offense is a lot of smoke and mirrors. It probably won't be terrible but it won't continue at anything close to this rate for the entire season.

I could easily see the Twins finishing the month close to .500 backed by a hot offense and then tail-spinning their way to a 72 win season.

On the other hand, the pitching has been bad and may compensate for an offensive drop-off in later months.

Either way, I still think they're a 72-ish win team. And I'm okay with that. If they manage to hit 75 wins, I'll be happy. If they approach 80, I'll be ecstatic.

#7 iTwins

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 07:38 AM

The Twins have me on a roller coaster right now. After the first game against Cleveland they were at 1-3 and could easily have been 0-4. Then they won the next to to make it back to .500 for the second time (if you count 0-0). Then they stunk up the joint against Oakland to go 3-6 and follow that up with a sweep of KC to make it back to .500 once again. At this point, I would be quite happy if they could continue flirting with .500.


You could also spin that start the other way. If not for horrendously bad Perkins outing (and a bad Plouffe throw) they're 2-1 coming out of Chicago. If Mike Pelfrey doesn't forget how to pitch in the opening Cleveland game, they sweep the Indians (5-1) and they were one clutch hit in the 10th inning away from taking the middle game of the A's series (6-3). After sweeping the Royals, the Twins could have been 9-3 - but for a few different breaks.

I know, "If's and buts" and whatnot, but it's crazy how close the Twins could have been to a Brewers like hot start.

That being said, I'll agree with the consensus so far and say they'll likely fall under .500 when the season ends. (I'll say at .500 5 times during the year). I think the pitching will stabilize, but I also think the offense will cool off. I'm sticking with 75 wins.

Edited by iTwins, 14 April 2014 - 10:17 AM.


#8 Halsey Hall

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 07:56 AM

Way under 12. I'd go with the 3, but it's nice to see them at .500 now. And nice to see the starters have success the last 3 games, and Perkins get on track. Somehow we've scored alot of runs so far but I just can't see how that will continue.

#9 mike wants wins

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 08:00 AM

Under, but that KC series was fun. I wish they'd be willing to DH Pinto when they have only 2 catchers on the roster. That would help long term. I also hope they keep Tonkin up, he's clearly better than at least two of the other guys. There is zero reason to keep him down, for fear of losing an older RP. There are lots of good reasons to have him up.
Lighten up Francis....

#10 Don't Feed the Greed Guy

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 08:15 AM

Looking ahead at the schedule, I think the Twins drop below .500 against Toronto, especially with this matchup looming, per Joe Morgan of MLB.com: "The Blue Jays, who homered three times in Sunday's win, have hit 15 home runs against Hughes in 116 2/3 innings. No team in the Majors has given out more souvenir baseballs in the outfield seats at Hughes's expense than Toronto. "http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2014_04_15_tormlb_minmlb_1&mode=preview&partnerId=LR_preview

But alas, the punchless Royals return to the schedule.

So, as of 4/14/14, the Twins are 6-6


After the Jays leave, the Twins are 7-8


After the Twins leave KC they are 9-9 on 4/20.


Then its off to Tampa Bay, home against Detroit, and home against the LA Dodgers to end the month. After that brutal stretch, they will not be over .500 until sometime in 2015.


So, yeah, I'm betting the under.

#11 nicksaviking

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 09:54 AM

I haven't seen any stats on it, but 12 games at .500 seems like a lot for any team, no matter which side of the mark they fall on. After all, it's impossible for a team to be at .500 more than one game in a row.

#12 Willihammer

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 10:21 AM

At first I thought losing Hammer and Arcia would be the start of the end, especially with this schedule. Now I don't know what to think. The starting staff is worryingly spotty. I tense up every time a ball is hit to third base or center field. But, Pinto has been a shot in the arm. Dozier and Kubel are dialed in. Mauer looks like the same old Mauer. I'm still not sold on Cola, Plouffe or Hicks to consistently put together good at-bats. Much less Florimon.

They have scored 67 and allowed 64 runs. They're batting .264 w/ RISP, which isn't as high as I expected. And the bullpen isn't as bad as they've played, we all know that. Overall, I don't see a lot of signs that say "negative regression ahead." If anything, they have some arms to deal and maybe cover up some holes. Some mid-season call ups, the return of Hammer and Arcia... Shoot, I'll take the over.

#13 TheLeviathan

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 10:26 AM

I tense up every time a ball is hit to third base or center field.


Someone needs to get out and work with Hicks on going back on a ball. In my life as a Twins fan I may have been spoiled with good CFs enough to know what a guy lost out there looks like. Every time it's over his head they might as well slap the Benny Hill music on.

The KC offense sure made us all feel a lot better about the pitching, that's for sure. As for the offense: they are hitting .240 with a .712 OPS as a team. In the bottom third in HRs, SBs, and TBs. Frankly, the team pulling out runs like this is demonstrably flukey. They need to pick up some of those other facets or we're going to see scoring dip in a hurry.

#14 mike wants wins

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 10:31 AM

I don't get how Hicks can be bad at that. Six years of professional coaching.....
Lighten up Francis....

#15 Willihammer

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 10:52 AM

Some short-term concerns about the team:

1. how long before carrying 3 catchers bites us in the butt - ie. how many rolls of the dice can we get away with before Herrmann or Suzuki comes up in a game breaking spot? We already got away with one in Chicago with Suzuki. That was pretty lucky IMO and wouldn't count on it happening next time.

2. how long before Florimon costs us a game with the bat due to carrying 13 pitchers and 3 catchers?

3. what is a Phil Hughes? A starter or a reliever?

4. Will Hammer hit when he returns?

5. Will Arcia get more consistent?

6. Will Gardy ever pull a starter who's putting up zeroes before he coughs up the lead?

#16 Thegrin

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 10:58 AM

I'll take the OVER. This is a no-brainer and I'll be smiling all the way through September. :)

#17 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 11:13 AM

Are we really carrying 13 pitchers? I guess I thought people were just joking and jesting the last few days... I thought we signed starting pitching so we wouldn't have to do that anymore? Carrying 13 pitchers when you desire to pinch run for your best hitters at the earliest opportunity is roster mismanagement at its finest so I'll take the under :)

#18 D. Hocking

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 11:36 AM

I am going under, but am more hopeful than I was a few weeks ago. I think something like 75 and 87 compared to the 5 and 157 I was thinking at my deepest moments of negativity and despair. I think they will be more entertaining and already seem to be setting a trend of some strange game endings. While I think there will be moments (or weeks) of frustration, I don't think they will be boring and will be a bit unpredictable.

#19 SweetOne69

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 11:45 AM

Are we really carrying 13 pitchers? I guess I thought people were just joking and jesting the last few days... I thought we signed starting pitching so we wouldn't have to do that anymore? Carrying 13 pitchers when you desire to pinch run for your best hitters at the earliest opportunity is roster mismanagement at its finest so I'll take the under :)


Yes, when they placed Willingham on the DL the recalled Tonkin so they are currently carrying 13 pitchers.

With Bartlett and Arcia already on the DL, they added both Herrmann and Mastroianni to the 40-man and re-called them so they really don't have any ML ready position players left on the 40-man roster nor do they have room to added anybody else to the 40-man. So they had to add a 13th pitcher.

At the time I was okay with it since the BP had to pitch a lot of innings in the 1st 9 games. But after the good starting pitching we got against KC, if they perform deep into games against Toronto, I would send down a pitcher and bring up Nunez.

#20 Physics Guy

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 12:50 PM

Looking ahead at the schedule, I think the Twins drop below .500 against Toronto, especially with this matchup looming, per Joe Morgan of MLB.com: "The Blue Jays, who homered three times in Sunday's win, have hit 15 home runs against Hughes in 116 2/3 innings. No team in the Majors has given out more souvenir baseballs in the outfield seats at Hughes's expense than Toronto. "http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2014_04_15_tormlb_minmlb_1&mode=preview&partnerId=LR_preview

But alas, the punchless Royals return to the schedule.

So, as of 4/14/14, the Twins are 6-6


After the Jays leave, the Twins are 7-8


After the Twins leave KC they are 9-9 on 4/20.


Then its off to Tampa Bay, home against Detroit, and home against the LA Dodgers to end the month. After that brutal stretch, they will not be over .500 until sometime in 2015.


So, yeah, I'm betting the under.


I really hesitated on the 12. I think it could easily be 4, just as you have suggested. I looked at the schedule and figured they could get buried after KC, but they could also get lucky here and take 2 out of 3 in the next 2 and be awfully close to twelve right there. I think the number either ends up around where it is today or greatly exceeds 12 if they get hot to start the season.

#21 Physics Guy

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 12:51 PM

I haven't seen any stats on it, but 12 games at .500 seems like a lot for any team, no matter which side of the mark they fall on. After all, it's impossible for a team to be at .500 more than one game in a row.


Over-under for games at .500 OR above.

#22 Physics Guy

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 12:54 PM

Are we really carrying 13 pitchers? I guess I thought people were just joking and jesting the last few days... I thought we signed starting pitching so we wouldn't have to do that anymore? Carrying 13 pitchers when you desire to pinch run for your best hitters at the earliest opportunity is roster mismanagement at its finest so I'll take the under :)


I think the reason may be that they didn't feel there was a good option at this time other than a pitcher. They did already call up Mastro and Herrmann. I'd have to think Parmelee might be next, but I'm not sure what he's done in AAA.

- Edit - I guess I should have read the next post. SweetOne69 basically just said the same.

#23 blindeke

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 02:02 PM

Which will be larger: The # of games the Twins >= .500 or the # of home runs hit by Bautista over the next 3 games?

#24 Physics Guy

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Posted 17 April 2014 - 04:13 PM

Starting second game today at 4.

#25 Thegrin

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Posted 17 April 2014 - 10:06 PM

going against the Royals with 5 and guaranteed at least 6 for the 2nd game. My over bet is looking better :) (Unless I misread the above thread, I was the only one who took the over.)

#26 Physics Guy

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Posted 17 April 2014 - 11:21 PM

If they win the KC series they are guaranteed 10.

#27 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 18 April 2014 - 02:31 AM

12? I take the over. I think the number will be closer to 18.

#28 Thegrin

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Posted 18 April 2014 - 02:32 PM

Late comers should have the line moved to 14 :D

#29 Physics Guy

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Posted 18 April 2014 - 02:59 PM

Late comers should have the line moved to 14 :D


That's what I was thinking. :)

#30 SweetOne69

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Posted 18 April 2014 - 03:16 PM

Late comers should have the line moved to 14 :D


Why, when this thread started the Twins' were @ 3 and they currently are @ 4. Is the one day enough to move the target up by 2?