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Potential of Kyle Gibson...

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#1 KirbyHawk75

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 05:10 PM

Can he be a number 2 pitcher in a rotation? I do not believe he is an ace, but he can be a very good pitcher for us.

#2 Boom Boom

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 05:55 PM

If everything breaks right for Gibson, I think he could be very similar to Justin Masterson.

Not an ace, but maybe a good #2.

#3 stringer bell

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 06:01 PM

Gibson is a guy I like. I think he can be very good, perhaps to ace level. I would expect that if he reached his ceiling, he would still get a lot of ground balls but that he would K a lot more hitters and walk almost no one. So far, he really hasn't consistently commanded his pitches, but he throws downhill and gets good movement.

#4 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 06:19 PM

I think you are a little bit optimistic stringer.
I don't think he'll ever be an ace, though it depends on how you define it I guess. Certainly he could be our staff ace until/unless Meyer or Stewart take that job.
I think his ceiling is a solid #2 on an average ballclub, but most players never hit their ceiling so I'll be happy if he becomes a good #3 type.

#5 drock2190

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 07:51 PM

He better get his strikeout to walk ratio reversed before I get too excited.

His advanced stats are actually worse then last year.

#6 nicksaviking

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 08:50 PM

Yeah, I hope things turn out, but high walks plus low strikeouts generally mean early season success is a mirage.

I think he'll turn things around though. Doubt he'll ever become enough of a strikeout pitcher to be a #1 or even a #2 however.

#7 Thrylos

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 09:16 PM

. Doubt he'll ever become enough of a strikeout pitcher to be a #1 or even a #2 however.


I will wait for a larger sample size in the majors before I could qualify that. Here are some facts:

Fact #1: Gibson's career K/9 in the minors is 8.0
Fact #2: Roy Halladay's career K/9 in the majors was 6.9 and in the minors 5.9
Fact #3: Greg Maddux' career K/9 in the majors was 6.1

I suspect that nobody can argue that Halladay's and Maddux were not aces because of the low K/9. Arguably Gibson can have better K/9 than both of them. Can he be an ace in a world champion team? Likely not. I think that he will be a good #3 pitcher in a winning team, same way that (Hall of Famer) Tom Glavine was a good #3 pitcher in a winning team.
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#8 jokin

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 09:29 PM

I will wait for a larger sample size in the majors before I could qualify that. Here are some facts:

Fact #1: Gibson's career K/9 in the minors is 8.0
Fact #2: Roy Halladay's career K/9 in the majors was 6.9 and in the minors 5.9
Fact #3: Greg Maddux' career K/9 in the majors was 6.1

I suspect that nobody can argue that Halladay's and Maddux were not aces because of the low K/9. Arguably Gibson can have better K/9 than both of them. Can he be an ace in a world champion team? Likely not. I think that he will be a good #3 pitcher in a winning team, same way that (Hall of Famer) Tom Glavine was a good #3 pitcher in a winning team.


I love Gibson's chances to be an impact pitcher on this team as much as anyone.....But.......Tom Glavine averaged 215 IP/YR with an ERA+ of 120......over a 20 YEAR span. As we speak, Gibson's K/BB ratio is upside down on the season, along with a 5.67 xFIP. Let's hold off on any comps between- a "good #3 pitcher" and- Hall of Famer- Glavine, and Kyle Gibson, for at least a few more starts.

Edited by jokin, 12 April 2014 - 09:33 PM.


#9 stringer bell

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 10:05 PM

When reading discussions of aces, I think of Halliday as an example of a guy without high strikeouts who went on to become an legit ace. He was a IIRC well-regarded coming up, but not thought to be an ace, but evolved into an unquestioned top of the rotation guy on World Series teams. Maybe Gibson can get there, probably not. I agree that he needs to show more command, work ahead, and put more batters away quicker.

#10 drivlikejehu

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 10:12 PM

Gibson hasn't been particularly dominant in the high minors, and obviously not the Majors. He's already 26. We're lucky if he's a #3... he's certainly no ace.

#11 Marta Shearing

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 10:13 PM

The secret to his success so far? He's busting them inside, pissing batters off. Will be very interesting to see if he shies away when hitters start chirping at him and giving him the evil eye, or if he'll continue busting them in. As long as be stays waist level he has nothing to apoligize for.

#12 jokin

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 10:23 PM

Gibson hasn't been particularly dominant in the high minors, and obviously not the Majors. He's already 26. We're lucky if he's a #3... he's certainly no ace.


What? Go back and check his 2013 numbers. 3 straight shutouts, one of which was a near-no hitter. 2.92 ERA/3.10 FIP (5th best in IL)/1.16 WHIP.

#13 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 07:11 AM

When reading discussions of aces, I think of Halliday as an example of a guy without high strikeouts who went on to become an legit ace. He was a IIRC well-regarded coming up, but not thought to be an ace, but evolved into an unquestioned top of the rotation guy on World Series teams. Maybe Gibson can get there, probably not. I agree that he needs to show more command, work ahead, and put more batters away quicker.


Yes, there are exceptions, and Halladay certainly fits that.
But, there is a reason why Halladay became an exception, he was a ridiculously hard worker. Do a google search on Roy Halladay workout regiment, he was known for his Jerry Rice like insane workout routine.
I'm not saying Gibson isnt a hard worker, I don't know.

#14 spycake

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 09:19 AM

Yes, there are exceptions, and Halladay certainly fits that.
But, there is a reason why Halladay became an exception, he was a ridiculously hard worker. Do a google search on Roy Halladay workout regiment, he was known for his Jerry Rice like insane workout routine.
I'm not saying Gibson isnt a hard worker, I don't know.


I wouldn't even bother examining their workouts. It is certainly possible that Gibson becomes an ace, but it is not at all probable. Heck, he still has a ways to go to become that #3 guy.

#15 halfchest

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 09:39 AM

What sets him apart and gives him a chance to be a top of the rotation guy is those ground ball rates. I just remember seeing his minor league lines and it was always a ridiculous like 3:1 or 4:1 GO/FO ratio. Along with a decent K rate. When he was coming up prior to injury I was thinking he would be Scott Baker with ground ball ability. Still feel like that is his upside. His walk rate is way high and I'm convinced is a small sample size issue. His groundball rate is a bit higher than normal too but still within his wheelhouse. I expect him to continue the gb rate for the most part and improve the K/BB rate.

My opinion he could very much be a top of the rotation guy because of his groundball abilities that have been consistent even last year. However, I'll be happy if he can be a solid midrotation guy for his career like Nolasco.

#16 PseudoSABR

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 10:08 AM

A healthy Scott Baker or a horse like Nolasco both are very, very valuable.

#17 cmathewson

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 10:12 AM

I love Gibson's chances to be an impact pitcher on this team as much as anyone.....But.......Tom Glavine averaged 215 IP/YR with an ERA+ of 120......over a 20 YEAR span. As we speak, Gibson's K/BB ratio is upside down on the season, along with a 5.67 xFIP. Let's hold off on any comps between- a "good #3 pitcher" and- Hall of Famer- Glavine, and Kyle Gibson, for at least a few more starts.


It sucks to use small samples to prove a point. It sucks even worse to compare the smallest of samples with the largest. Maybe that's your point. Maybe you say you just can't answer the question without numbers. Again, if that's your point, fine. But if you're trying to prove some limitation of Gibson's potential based on small samples, I have a problem with that.

If you want to use something other than numbers, like scouting reports or video or pitch F/x, perhaps you can make a claim about his potential. For example, in his two starts, he's shown the same tendency he had last year: Get ahead 0-2 and throw several strikes that the umpire refuses to call strikes. Then induce an out on contact. If Gibson had been operating on the same strike zone that Glavin and Maddux lived with, his K/Bob would be 10/1. I don't know how long it will take the umps to start calling more strikes for him. But when it starts happening, he will be a solid #2 starter. When they do make contact, they make easy outs most of the time.
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#18 nicksaviking

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 10:24 AM

I will wait for a larger sample size in the majors before I could qualify that. Here are some facts:

Fact #1: Gibson's career K/9 in the minors is 8.0
Fact #2: Roy Halladay's career K/9 in the majors was 6.9 and in the minors 5.9
Fact #3: Greg Maddux' career K/9 in the majors was 6.1

I suspect that nobody can argue that Halladay's and Maddux were not aces because of the low K/9. Arguably Gibson can have better K/9 than both of them. Can he be an ace in a world champion team? Likely not. I think that he will be a good #3 pitcher in a winning team, same way that (Hall of Famer) Tom Glavine was a good #3 pitcher in a winning team.


No question those two are aces, one being one of the greatest pitchers of all time. Maddox did pitch most of his career in an era of pitch-to-contact though. Regardless, we can certainly hope Gibson develops into an elite pitcher based mostly on control, but as Pseudo said, hoping for a Nolasco type career is probably what we should be assuming for a ceiling.

#19 twinscowboysbulls

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 10:47 AM

I missed his 2nd start, but first start he seemed jittery, working out of tough spots though. Seemed more like luck rather than great pitches.

I remain optimistic that he could be a #3. Currently I'd call him an average 5 though.

#20 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 10:59 AM

I missed his 2nd start, but first start he seemed jittery, working out of tough spots though. Seemed more like luck rather than great pitches.

I remain optimistic that he could be a #3. Currently I'd call him an average 5 though.


To be fair to Gibson, cmat is right when he says that the umps are squeezing him like (almost) nobody else.
According to this WSJ study late last season: http://online.wsj.co...080993358926108

Gibson had the 5th least generous strike zone last season (79.2% of pitches in the zone called a strike).
And, although I dont have the numbers, I've seen more of the same this year.
The strike zone in his 2nd start was a joke.

It is hard enough to come up and pitch in the big leagues as it is, without getting jobbed by the ump.
When a full 1/5th of your strikes are called balls, I can see how that would pretty significantly affect your k/bb rate.