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Placement of 2013 Draft Picks

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#1 jay

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 07:17 AM

From KLaw's insider article:
"Top-15 picks like Kohl Stewart (Twins/Cedar Rapids), Austin Meadows and Reese McGuire (both Pirates/West Virginia), Trey Ball (Red Sox/Greenville) and Dominic Smith (Mets/Savannah) will begin their year in low Class A, while other first-round picks like Clint Frazier (Indians), Nick Ciuffo (Rays) and Ian Clarkin (Yankees) will begin their years in extended spring training."

So, Stewart is right in line with his fellow draftmates. From the year before, Buxton is (for all realistic purposes) at AA. The Twins catch a lot of guff about moving prospects slowly, but it feels more and more like myth than fact.

#2 gunnarthor

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 07:28 AM

From KLaw's insider article:
"Top-15 picks like Kohl Stewart (Twins/Cedar Rapids), Austin Meadows and Reese McGuire (both Pirates/West Virginia), Trey Ball (Red Sox/Greenville) and Dominic Smith (Mets/Savannah) will begin their year in low Class A, while other first-round picks like Clint Frazier (Indians), Nick Ciuffo (Rays) and Ian Clarkin (Yankees) will begin their years in extended spring training."

So, Stewart is right in line with his fellow draftmates. From the year before, Buxton is (for all realistic purposes) at AA. The Twins catch a lot of guff about moving prospects slowly, but it feels more and more like myth than fact.


Part of the reason for the "Twins promote slowly" narrative is because, for many years, they had to stick with minor leaguers and not free agents to plug holes (Blackburn's rookie season he was 26, for instance). But they've generally had their better players up early.

#3 kab21

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 08:26 AM

The biggest reason for the myth is that most of the Twins early round prospects performed poorly or met expectations. There just aren't many cases of a prospect making a case of 'you need to promote me'. Arcia is an example of a prospect who did this and he flew through the system.

#4 big dog

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 08:39 AM

The biggest reason for the myth is that most of the Twins early round prospects performed poorly or met expectations. There just aren't many cases of a prospect making a case of 'you need to promote me'. Arcia is an example of a prospect who did this and he flew through the system.


That's a good point- a lot of top prospects weren't promoted quickly because they didn't deserve it, not because the Twins were being conservative.

#5 jay

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 11:26 AM

Arcia is an example of a prospect who did this and he flew through the system.


Likewise for Buxton (thus far), Gibson (pre-injury), Garza, and others who performed.

Where's the dissenting opinion that we hear so often?

#6 mike wants wins

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 11:38 AM

Hey, I admit I was wrong before. The issue was that they were bad at drafting, not slow at promoting. Let's hope Buxton and Stewart go fast, because this team needs help, badly.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#7 nicksaviking

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 11:56 AM

I don't know that people were wrong about slow promotions, there just seems to be a shift in philosophy the last few years. Until Arcia came around I don't think any HS age draft pick was allowed to play less than a full year in the Midwest league.

#8 jay

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 12:26 PM

I don't know that people were wrong about slow promotions, there just seems to be a shift in philosophy the last few years. Until Arcia came around I don't think any HS age draft pick was allowed to play less than a full year in the Midwest league.


Hard to say. I can't think of any examples that produced at a level that really demanded to be promoted out of single-A earlier. Even if so, that is probably balanced out by the willingness to move guys quickly through double-A and even skip AAA completely that has existed for quite a while.

#9 jay

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 12:30 PM

You probably have a valid point about a misperception among fans though.

I think it's fair to say a lot of people perceive the time progression of a prospect through each of the levels as equivalent. The Twins seem to execute that as more of a downward sloping line -- more time in the lower levels, less in the higher levels (where warranted).

#10 drivlikejehu

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 12:55 PM

BP did a study of prospect promotions a few years back. The Twins were clearly on the conservative side, particularly with respect to pitchers.

#11 jay

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 12:59 PM

Link?

#12 jay

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 01:06 PM

Found it: http://www.baseballp...articleid=13018

You could just as well use that data to show how it highlights the Twins poor drafts, that the college guys in particular from that window didn't advance as quickly as hoped, or that there was a focus on HS guys who need more MiLB ABs. Especially given the first point, this 5 year window doesn't prove much.

The lack of rookies entering the league from 2005-2009 and turning into impact players is a big part of how we ended up with 2011-present.

Edited by jay, 07 April 2014 - 01:11 PM.


#13 tobi0040

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 02:55 PM

Found it: http://www.baseballp...articleid=13018

You could just as well use that data to show how it highlights the Twins poor drafts, that the college guys in particular from that window didn't advance as quickly as hoped, or that there was a focus on HS guys who need more MiLB ABs. Especially given the first point, this 5 year window doesn't prove much.

The lack of rookies entering the league from 2005-2009 and turning into impact players is a big part of how we ended up with 2011-present.


I agree, this is a chicken and egg thing. With regard to Stewart and the comps, all those guys were drafted behind him.

#14 clutterheart

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 04:16 PM

Mark Appel is in high A
Gray and Bryant are in AA.
Its not really a fair comparison as those are college guys but interesting to note.

Bryant looks to be the class of this draft so far. Wow he can hit.

#15 clutterheart

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 04:23 PM

Hhh

Edited by clutterheart, 07 April 2014 - 04:27 PM.


#16 Seth Stohs

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 04:38 PM

Mark Appel is in high A
Gray and Bryant are in AA.
Its not really a fair comparison as those are college guys but interesting to note.

Bryant looks to be the class of this draft so far. Wow he can hit.


It's no comparison at all.

Those are Top 5 picks out of college (4 years of college in Appel's case). In theory, that puts Kohl Stewart about 2-3 levels ahead of their pace.

#17 Seth Stohs

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 04:42 PM

Honestly, it has to be a case-by-case things. There are, in all things baseball, no absolutes. Buxton and Stewart are being promoted quickly because they are Top 4, elite talents. late-first round picks are a step below. Someone like Gonsalves, if he as a fourth rounder were to get promoted to Cedar Rapids, that would be very fast.

Brian Gilbert, a 7th round pick last year out of college, is at Ft. Myers.

I think we worry way too much about this. The goal is to get them to the big leagues, not to get them there as fast as possible.

Think it would have been better if they had started Levi Michael in the Midwest League?I'm sure there are examples to show whatever.

#18 Thrylos

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 05:11 PM

The last couple of seasons the Twins have been more aggressive in both promoting and cutting players. I suspect that the change in Minor League Director had something to do with this.
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#19 gunnarthor

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 05:30 PM

I don't know that people were wrong about slow promotions, there just seems to be a shift in philosophy the last few years. Until Arcia came around I don't think any HS age draft pick was allowed to play less than a full year in the Midwest league.


One other thing that is helping is the moved up signing deadline that lets draft picks get time in the year they were drafted. Huge help.

#20 nicksaviking

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 07:00 PM

It's no comparison at all.

Those are Top 5 picks out of college (4 years of college in Appel's case). In theory, that puts Kohl Stewart about 2-3 levels ahead of their pace.


Thats true but Eades and Slegers were I think only two of ten healthy college pitchers picked in the first five rounds that didn't even make it out of rookie league. Some teams appear to not even bother putting these types of pitchers in rookie ball at all.

Im not making any judgment about this strategy, but there are still comps available that indicate the Twins are still on the conversative side.