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Trevor May - 2014

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#21 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 11:03 AM

One thing that worries me is that hit rate. I don't see how it's sustainable, as his average against is under .200, IIRC.

#22 tobi0040

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 11:37 AM

One thing that worries me is that hit rate. I don't see how it's sustainable, as his average against is under .200, IIRC.


That is unsustainable, but I think if the LOB% stabilizes as well it more than offsets that. He has an LOB% of over 70% in his career and is at 51% now. So even if his H per 9 goes from 4.9 to 8 or so (about his average) and only 28-29% score he should be OK.

#23 gunnarthor

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 09:34 AM

One thing that worries me is that hit rate. I don't see how it's sustainable, as his average against is under .200, IIRC.


He'll give up a few more hits but we're also in ridiculously small sample sizes yet. If he had given up 10 more hits, his h/9 would be well over 9, instead of 5.5. With May, the big issue will always be control - if he's walking 1 batter for every three he's striking out, we're ok. He's going to eat innings, he's durable. He'll give up some hits and he projects as a solid middle of the rotation arm. His best seasons might be sort of like a healthy Aaron Harang type season.

#24 gunnarthor

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 08:09 AM

And Trevor did an interview for Twins Daily: http://www.twinsdail...with-Trevor-May

#25 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 08:27 AM

He'll give up a few more hits but we're also in ridiculously small sample sizes yet. If he had given up 10 more hits, his h/9 would be well over 9, instead of 5.5. With May, the big issue will always be control - if he's walking 1 batter for every three he's striking out, we're ok. He's going to eat innings, he's durable. He'll give up some hits and he projects as a solid middle of the rotation arm. His best seasons might be sort of like a healthy Aaron Harang type season.


Absolutely, I was just pointing out that his hit rate is padding his stats a bit... Like you said, his walk rate is the key. He has always missed bats but if he's walking 3-3.5 per 9, he should be okay.

#26 gunnarthor

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:24 AM

May outpitched Bauer last night and on the season is now 2-3 4.11era, 35 ip, 41K, 13 walks 2 HR. His era could be a bit lower with some better defense/luck. The control though is the thing and that looks good. Right now his rate stats are 10.5 k/9, 3.3 bb/9 and 3.15 k/bb - all excellent numbers for us. He's striking out nearly 30% of the batters he's faced and walking only 9%. Right now, he's actually outpitching Alex Meyer. He doesn't have Meyer's ceiling but it's looking more likely that he can be a solid innings eating #3 type.

#27 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:29 AM

May is doing well in all the stats that matter. In MiLB ball, I don't feel ERA should be much of a consideration.

I'm hoping he keeps it up and we see him in Minnesota by early June. Let Meyer work on the changeup for a bit and promote May in his place.

#28 gunnarthor

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:37 AM

I should also point out that his GO/AO is 0.74 but I honestly don't know if that's a good number or not. His home runs though are down this year.

#29 Mike Frasier Law

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Posted 16 May 2014 - 08:24 AM

I am more excited about May than most, I think. And his numbers are not only great - they're trending in the right direction.

k/9 has gone from 9.08 in 2012 to 9.94 in 2013 (AA) to 10.54 this year.
bb/9 has gone from 4.69 in 2012 to 3.98 in 2013 to 3.34 this year.
Anyone have stats on his gb%? I couldn't find it anywhere.

#30 gunnarthor

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 07:16 PM

May had a pretty good night tonight - 8ip (107 pitches), 0 runs, 4 hits (3 singles and a triple), 4 walks, 6 strike outs. May faced only 3 batters in 5 of the 8 innings.

#31 Larsbars08

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 07:46 PM

I'll be interested to see where he is at the all-star break. So far the BB/9 ratio is significantly better, but I would like to see it stick over half a season before I'm a believer. He's a guy who probably will never be Mr. Consistent, but if he can limit his wildness than he'd be a pretty damn effective pitcher more often then not.

Plus, as much crap as Rick Anderson gets, pitchers in Twins uniforms tend not to walk so many guys.

#32 Twins Fan From Afar

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 07:52 PM

Tonight was a great start -- especially in terms of pitches (107) and the 8 full innings.
Strangely, 2 of the walks came back-to-back following a relatively meaningless 2-out triple after Rochester was already up 4-0. As I was saying to Christopher Fee on twitter tonight, May is about the most cerebral pitcher I've ever met/read interviews about. The "plus," is that you get a guy who's always trying to think about his game and little ways in which he can get better. The "minus," -- he gets in his own head way too often.

Still, though -- take this start for what it's worth. 8 innings of 4-hit ball.
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#33 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 07:54 PM

one heck of a game tonight. He's got to bring those walks down a bit. He might have gone all 9 had he been able to do so.

#34 gunnarthor

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Posted 01 June 2014 - 07:46 AM

Updating this again. May has had two more nice starts and for the season is now 5-3, 2.62 era, 55ip, 54 so, 22 bb. He hasn't given up an earned run in 26 innings. He's walking about 3.6 bb/9, although his last start he only walked 2 in 7 innings. His two previous he had walked 7 in 13 innings. I think he has to be the next Red Wing pitcher promoted. Not a lot left to do in AAA and he's about a finished product.

#35 laloesch

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 11:25 AM

Updating this again. May has had two more nice starts and for the season is now 5-3, 2.62 era, 55ip, 54 so, 22 bb. He hasn't given up an earned run in 26 innings. He's walking about 3.6 bb/9, although his last start he only walked 2 in 7 innings. His two previous he had walked 7 in 13 innings. I think he has to be the next Red Wing pitcher promoted. Not a lot left to do in AAA and he's about a finished product.


If the Twins can find someone to take on Correia then i'd be willing to bet he's the next one called up. Trevor May will get the benefit of the doubt over Meyer strictly because of the innings pitched and the fact that Meyer is learning a new pitch.

Pretty exciting to see the Rochester rotation right now. I live in Charlotte and will be going to a game tomorrow against the Redwings.

#36 gunnarthor

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 07:54 AM

Started last night and took the loss. 6 ip, 3er, 6h, 2bb and 9k. One extra base hit was a double. A run scored on his wild pitch. For the season he is 5-4, 2.80 era, 61ip, 63k, 24bb. Solid numbers. He is what he is - potentially a #3 or inning eating back of the rotation arm. He's gonna give up some walks at the ML level and struggle at first but it's probably about time for him to get up here.

#37 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:20 AM

Started last night and took the loss. 6 ip, 3er, 6h, 2bb and 9k. One extra base hit was a double. A run scored on his wild pitch. For the season he is 5-4, 2.80 era, 61ip, 63k, 24bb. Solid numbers. He is what he is - potentially a #3 or inning eating back of the rotation arm. He's gonna give up some walks at the ML level and struggle at first but it's probably about time for him to get up here.


It's time for somebody to get up here. I lean toward May but I'll take anybody at this point.

#38 2wins87

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 10:05 AM

I am more excited about May than most, I think. And his numbers are not only great - they're trending in the right direction.

k/9 has gone from 9.08 in 2012 to 9.94 in 2013 (AA) to 10.54 this year.
bb/9 has gone from 4.69 in 2012 to 3.98 in 2013 to 3.34 this year.
Anyone have stats on his gb%? I couldn't find it anywhere.


Check out the game logs on Baseball Reference:
http://www.baseball-...e=pgl&year=2014

He's definitely a flyball pitcher. He's only got a 36% GB this year, and it was only 40% last year.

Guys with similar rates in the majors this year are Tommy Milone, Jered Weaver, Aaron Harang and Drew Hutchison. All of these guys are having solid seasons, ranging between 6 and 9 K/9, which is probably achievable for May in the majors. They do all have walk rates below 3 BB/9 though.

#39 gunnarthor

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 07:50 AM

So, it's been a bit but May has continued to be outstanding and really should be in the majors now. Last night he went 8.1ip, 3h, 2bb, 11k and 1ER. 120 pitches. He's a horse. And he did it against the Red Sox AAA team which had MLers and top prospects like Middlebrooks, Victorino, Cecchinni and Mookie Betts in it.

On the season he's 7-4, 2.77 era, 74ip, 54h, 29bb, 78k. That's good enough for a 2.69bb/k ratio. For stat lovers, his stats aren't that out of line with last year - his K% and bb% are only slightly better than what he did in AA. But last year he had a babip of nearly .330. He still projects as a innings eating #3 or worse pitcher in the bigs and should replace Deduno at this point.

#40 gunnarthor

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Posted 07 July 2014 - 04:25 PM

Fudge. May will be out even longer with injury. Meyer replaces him on futures team.


Also, if you need another reason to root for May, he is urging his twitter followers to vote for Morneau.