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Trevor May - 2014

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#1 gunnarthor

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 10:55 AM

May came here in the Ben Revere trade along with Vance Worley. The right hander has the size you'd want in a pitcher - 6'5" and 220 lbs. He's been extremely durable and thrown 150 innings each of the last 3 seasons and 135 in the one before that. At his best, he profiles to be a innings eating #3 type starter. He had a long season last year but managed to pitch another 15 innings or so in the AFL.

May has the stuff to be a starter but his results haven't always been great. His numbers in AA have been ok - he strikes out a ton of guys but he walks a bunch too. Jason Parks, Baseball Prospectus main prospect guru, has said that May "frustrates the hell" out of him. Klaw has noted that he "pitches small" and has a low release point. His command can be shaky at times. But those are mechanical issues that can be fixed. His first year in the Twins system saw his walk rate fall from 12% to 10% while his strike out rate increased from 22% to 24%. He also saw a big drop in home runs allowed. His era last year was hurt by shaky defense - opponents had a .330 avg in balls in play. With a bit more luck, his era might have been more in line with his fip (which was 13th in the EL among starting pitchers).

May starts the year in AAA and will (most likely) be one of the first arms called up. I tend to think that May is underrated but he might never be a "traditional" Twins pitcher. He's going to give up some walks. But he has the frame and durability to pitch around it and still be a 200 inning guy.

#2 Terry

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 11:07 AM

Frankly, May's game sounds refreshing even if it is still too raw. The "not a traditional Twins pitcher" sounds great to me. I've grown weary of all these pitch-to-contact guys that I'm excited to see a young wild thing come up in the system. Hopefully not too wild though.

#3 tobi0040

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 01:01 PM

Frankly, May's game sounds refreshing even if it is still too raw. The "not a traditional Twins pitcher" sounds great to me. I've grown weary of all these pitch-to-contact guys that I'm excited to see a young wild thing come up in the system. Hopefully not too wild though.


His numbers last year were really dinged by two lousy starts (8 ER in each). I calculated his numbers sans those two starts, in the other 26 starts he had a 3.75 ERA with over a K per inning. He had 3-4 starts with no runs allowed. Something like 13 with 0, 1, or 2 ER.

If you back out his worst two starts from 2012, his ERA drops 4.25 or so. Many point to the fact that he repeated AA and only went from 4.80 to 4.55 or something like that. In 90% of his starts, he went from 4.25 to 3.75, which is quite an improvement.

Edited by tobi0040, 02 April 2014 - 01:06 PM.


#4 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 06:21 PM

His numbers last year were really dinged by two lousy starts (8 ER in each). I calculated his numbers sans those two starts, in the other 26 starts he had a 3.75 ERA with over a K per inning. He had 3-4 starts with no runs allowed. Something like 13 with 0, 1, or 2 ER.

If you back out his worst two starts from 2012, his ERA drops 4.25 or so. Many point to the fact that he repeated AA and only went from 4.80 to 4.55 or something like that. In 90% of his starts, he went from 4.25 to 3.75, which is quite an improvement.


That may be true, but if you are going to do that then you also need to remove everyone elses 2 worst starts of the season. So, in comparison to his peers, fudging the numbers in that way probably doesn't change a whole lot.

I'm hoping that he can at the very least develop into a back of the bullpen arm for years to come, and obviously if he can hit that hard throwing middle of the rotation ceiling it would be a great bonus.

#5 tobi0040

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Posted 03 April 2014 - 07:24 AM

While true that every pitchers ERA would improve, not every pitcher had 16 ER in 2 starts. Compared with the year prior, he had a much bigger spread after removing his two worse starts.

This type of analysis can be useful. So you lose 2 of his 28 starts for sure, but then get a 3.75 ERA in the other 26. That is a pretty good pitcher.

His control issues look much better as well, as those two starts had a ton of BB's. His BB per 9, which everyone points to went from 3.5 to just a hair over 3 if you remove those two starts.

Edited by tobi0040, 03 April 2014 - 07:28 AM.


#6 Chance

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Posted 08 April 2014 - 08:01 PM

May is having a great start tonight. 8 Ks throw 5 with no walks! Hopefully he can add one more inning.

#7 Jaykay

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Posted 08 April 2014 - 08:10 PM

May is having a great start tonight. 8 Ks throw 5 with no walks! Hopefully he can add one more inning.


Bravo Trevor, very encouraging!

#8 gunnarthor

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Posted 08 April 2014 - 08:22 PM

Yep, looks like his night is over. 5 ip, 3 hits (triple and two singles), no walks and 8 strike outs. He also got 3 ground ball outs against two fly ball outs. He'll get a no-decision because the bullpen immediately blew the lead. He threw 84 pitches in those 5 innings which is a little high but that's just nitpicking at this point. (I think he's got the build to throw 110 pitches if needed without much concern). Anyhow, really nice first start of the season.

#9 Briley

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Posted 08 April 2014 - 08:33 PM

May is having a great start tonight. 8 Ks throw 5 with no walks! Hopefully he can add one more inning.


Mmmmmm I like the sound of that!
Once held a .900 OBP in Church League Softball.

#10 Twins Fan From Afar

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Posted 08 April 2014 - 09:05 PM

Just to build on the other comments on his really solid start tonight -- he was also 10/18 in first pitch strikes (55.5%), and 51/84 (60.7%) overall.
Not sure why, but I'm obsessive about May and his ability to work ahead:

http://twinsfanfroma...ch-strikes.html
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#11 zakprior

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 06:10 AM

That may be true, but if you are going to do that then you also need to remove everyone elses 2 worst starts of the season. So, in comparison to his peers, fudging the numbers in that way probably doesn't change a whole lot.

I'm hoping that he can at the very least develop into a back of the bullpen arm for years to come, and obviously if he can hit that hard throwing middle of the rotation ceiling it would be a great bonus.


Personally I quite like this look at May. What it means is that he in a 30 start season with the twins he might give up 2 or 3 games in which he gives up a ton of runs, whilst that inflates his ERA it means in 27 games he will be competitive. As such, three almost guaranteed loses, but 27 games in which the team is given an excellent chance to win. I would take that.

#12 gunnarthor

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Posted 15 April 2014 - 07:10 AM

Trevor May didn't have a great start yesterday against the Red Sox AAA team. 4.1, 5 h (all singles), 4er, 4k, 2bb. He did have 4 ground outs against one fly ball out so maybe he was unlucky.

#13 positive1

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 10:46 AM

04/20/2014 | May on the cusp of realizing his dream
Trevor May fired six one-hit innings to earn his first Triple-A win on Sunday as Rochester beat Syracuse, 9-3. His next phone call could see the Twins prospect pitching in the Major Leagues.

http://www.milb.com/...t=.jsp&sid=milb

#14 positive1

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 03:01 PM

Trevor May on the cusp of realizing his dream
Twins prospect fires six one-hit innings, earns first Triple-A win

http://www.milb.com/...&vkey=news_milb

#15 gunnarthor

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 08:11 AM

We lost some of the discussion on here last week but Trevor had another outstanding outing last night - 6ip, 3h, 1bb, 11k 104 pitches. He also managed to get more ground balls than fly balls. In 5 starts, he's only had one real dud (his second start wasn't as bad as the numbers suggested). He's walking 3 BB/9 and has a 11.5 k/9. Opponents are batting .179/.240/.279 off of him.

We need a little more consistency from him but it's quite possible that he'll be up before Meyer.

#16 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 08:23 AM

I'm skeptical that we'll see him before Meyer. I think the Twins are going to want to see more than six innings per start in AAA before he gets the call.

Either way, it's hard not to like what he's done thus far.

#17 gunnarthor

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 09:10 AM

I'm skeptical that we'll see him before Meyer. I think the Twins are going to want to see more than six innings per start in AAA before he gets the call.

Either way, it's hard not to like what he's done thus far.


I think Meyer is more likely to be held back for Super 2 status than May. And May probably won't be on any sort of innings limit than Meyer.

#18 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 10:15 AM

Good point about the innings limit. Forgot about that.

#19 mike wants wins

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 10:23 AM

Gotta admit, May is significantly increasing my hope for him. His progress would be great news for the Twins.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#20 tobi0040

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 10:57 AM

We lost some of the discussion on here last week but Trevor had another outstanding outing last night - 6ip, 3h, 1bb, 11k 104 pitches. He also managed to get more ground balls than fly balls. In 5 starts, he's only had one real dud (his second start wasn't as bad as the numbers suggested). He's walking 3 BB/9 and has a 11.5 k/9. Opponents are batting .179/.240/.279 off of him.

We need a little more consistency from him but it's quite possible that he'll be up before Meyer.


Good call on his second start. Overall he has had 23 base runners and 12 of them have scored. So his stranded rate is just terrible. If he keeps these numbers anywhere near where they are his ERA comes down dramatically over the year:

11.5 K per 9
5.5 H per 9
3 BB per 9

His career stranded rate is a little over 70%. If you apply that rate to this year, he has 7 ER instead of 12. That is why his FIP is 2.36

Edited by tobi0040, 02 May 2014 - 11:24 AM.