Thread: Election Day

Anyone think Romney can win it?

Looks like the Dems will retain control of the Senate, but may actually lose seats in the House.

Are there any state propositions that people are paying attention to?

Yeah, I think Romney falls short. Only state vote I care about is voting in favor of gay marriage, that and seeing Bachman go down.

South Dakota has some interesting ballot measures, and a moron sitting representative that should be voted out, but she's not got a decent opponent to do it. One ballot measure would bring about merit pay for educators, and another would utilize a permanent tax to fund education and Medicaid.

Ben, how do they plan to measure merit? If it's by test scores--that's troublesome. What's the proposal number? Your thoughts?

Romney could win but it's pretty unlikely. I think Obama wins the EV 303-235 and ges a 1-2% national vote victory.

I'm really watching both MN amendments (vote no on both!). I think four other states have a gay marriage ban of some sort but I don't remember which four.

Originally Posted by gunnarthor

Romney could win but it's pretty unlikely. I think Obama wins the EV 303-235 and ges a 1-2% national vote victory.

I'm really watching both MN amendments (vote no on both!). I think four other states have a gay marriage ban of some sort but I don't remember which four.

Maryland, Maine, Washington all have votes to legalize gay marriage. Minnesota is the only state with a constitutional amendment against gay marriage.

I'm also interested in the Washington and Colorado votes on legalizing marijuana. I think they both pass.

Only way that Romney wins is if the polls are all systematically biased and/or a late break in his favor that is not being captured in the polls.

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

Ben, how do they plan to measure merit? If it's by test scores--that's troublesome. What's the proposal number? Your thoughts?

Honestly, this is one that I haven't looked into because it was so universally destroyed by a teaching friend of mine who has had some positive ideas on merit pay. When she bashed it completely, I didn't even invest my time in learning more about it. Not the best voting research, I know, but I trust her reaction that strongly. I believe the measure is 16. 14-15-16 are the three that are fairly news worthy in SoDak. Referred Law 14 would utilize excise tax funds specifically to fund "large project development', which would encourage wind farms in the state, but it would also encourage corporate farm entities to establish in the state, so it has some strong argument back and forth in an agricultural state. Referred Law 16 would eliminate teacher tenure requirements, set up a teacher and administration evaluation standard which would then set merit based bonuses based on those evaluations. Initiated Measure 15 would increase the state sales tax from 4% to 5%, and permanently utilize that last percentage to fund education and Medicaid. Those are the big three here.

Originally Posted by gunnarthor

Romney could win but it's pretty unlikely. I think Obama wins the EV 303-235 and ges a 1-2% national vote victory.

I'm really watching both MN amendments (vote no on both!). I think four other states have a gay marriage ban of some sort but I don't remember which four.

Yeah, the numbers 290, 303, 319, and 332 are by far the most likely electoral votes for Obama (simply depending on Florida and Virginia--neither, Virginia only, Florida only, or both).

Originally Posted by drjim

Originally Posted by gunnarthor

Romney could win but it's pretty unlikely. I think Obama wins the EV 303-235 and ges a 1-2% national vote victory.

I'm really watching both MN amendments (vote no on both!). I think four other states have a gay marriage ban of some sort but I don't remember which four.

Maryland, Maine, Washington all have votes to legalize gay marriage. Minnesota is the only state with a constitutional amendment against gay marriage.

I'm also interested in the Washington and Colorado votes on legalizing marijuana. I think they both pass.

Only way that Romney wins is if the polls are all systematically biased and/or a late break in his favor that is not being captured in the polls.

Yeah, I am in Seattle for the week and I am looking forward to a pretty fun night of partying tomorrow, in the span of one night Washington is going to advance like 60+ years with the passing of gay marriage and the repeal of Marijuana Prohibition.

Ya how can we get Republicans fired up to come out and vote. I know, gays and terrorists. Let's amend the constitution while we're at it. What a joke. The Dems were no better in the last exercise. You like clean water? Let's paste a sales tax into the constitution, that's a sensible way to budget for the next dozen bienniums.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Ya how can we get Republicans fired up to come out and vote. I know, gays and terrorists. Let's amend the constitution while we're at it. What a joke. The Dems were no better in the last exercise. You like clean water? Let's paste a sales tax into the constitution, that's a sensible way to budget for the next dozen bienniums.

addmitting your a republican is the 1st of 12 steps to recovery,
you wanted a v.p last time in palin who turned 20 tricks on 4th ave, in anchorage,who supported her husband in seperating the state of alaska from the usa...now you want to put mitt the millionair into office to fix the economy ? whos chinas? last week bain corp. stripped an automotive parts plant down loaded the machinery up and shipped it and 1200 jobs to china...if his former state wont support him , if his mormon cult wont support him why would any real american want a money grubbing 1 %er for a leader of america? to usher in the amero dollar and help the macro inflation of the usa and destroying the middle class once and for all

Is johnnydakota fatbeer's bizzaro cousin?

I will be watching New Hampshire and Pennsylvania -- if these break for Romney then I think that Obama will be in trouble.

Whoever wins, we need some breakthroughs. The Dems need to compromise as to some programs that are vital to the average person, and the Republicans need to allow some tax increases on people making more than $X per year. But I am pessimistic about achieving needed cuts in the defense budget no matter who wins. Unless there can be fundamental changes in the system, we will continue to have a corrupt and unproductive Congress and a President who must tiptoe around powerful special interests ranging from the NRA to the ACLU to Wall Street and beyond.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Is johnnydakota fatbeer's bizzaro cousin?

Heh. I'd say he's the smarter and more enlightened of the two.

Originally Posted by glunn

I will be watching New Hampshire and Pennsylvania -- if these break for Romney then I think that Obama will be in trouble.

Whoever wins, we need some breakthroughs. The Dems need to compromise as to some programs that are vital to the average person, and the Republicans need to allow some tax increases on people making more than $X per year. But I am pessimistic about achieving needed cuts in the defense budget no matter who wins. Unless there can be fundamental changes in the system, we will continue to have a corrupt and unproductive Congress and a President who must tiptoe around powerful special interests ranging from the NRA to the ACLU to Wall Street and beyond.

I wouldn't exactly call the ACLU a special interest group unless defending people's Constitutional rights and freedoms is a special interest.

Originally Posted by ChiTownTwinsFan

Originally Posted by glunn

I will be watching New Hampshire and Pennsylvania -- if these break for Romney then I think that Obama will be in trouble.

Whoever wins, we need some breakthroughs. The Dems need to compromise as to some programs that are vital to the average person, and the Republicans need to allow some tax increases on people making more than $X per year. But I am pessimistic about achieving needed cuts in the defense budget no matter who wins. Unless there can be fundamental changes in the system, we will continue to have a corrupt and unproductive Congress and a President who must tiptoe around powerful special interests ranging from the NRA to the ACLU to Wall Street and beyond.

I wouldn't exactly call the ACLU a special interest group unless defending people's Constitutional rights and freedoms is a special interest.

Agreed. The ACLU of MN (http://www.aclu-mn.org/get-involved/) has had some pretty interesting work over the last year.

I found this hilarious today. One of my 7 year old students came up to me and told me that she hoped Mitt Romney didn't win because her mom said everything would change if he took office. So, she hoped Obama would win because he "wouldn't change nothin."

No political slant, just ironically hilarious and a mood lightener for me today.

Originally Posted by drjim

Only way that Romney wins is if the polls are all systematically biased and/or a late break in his favor that is not being captured in the polls.

This is the case. All poll modelling is based on the turnout of the previous election. They poll Republicans, Democrats and Independents in the same ratio that turned out in 2008. So they only track the change in the Independent votes. They don't track the change in ratios. And it seems that more Republicans intend to turn up while more Democrats stay home.

Originally Posted by ChiTownTwinsFan

Originally Posted by glunn

I will be watching New Hampshire and Pennsylvania -- if these break for Romney then I think that Obama will be in trouble.

Whoever wins, we need some breakthroughs. The Dems need to compromise as to some programs that are vital to the average person, and the Republicans need to allow some tax increases on people making more than $X per year. But I am pessimistic about achieving needed cuts in the defense budget no matter who wins. Unless there can be fundamental changes in the system, we will continue to have a corrupt and unproductive Congress and a President who must tiptoe around powerful special interests ranging from the NRA to the ACLU to Wall Street and beyond.

I wouldn't exactly call the ACLU a special interest group unless defending people's Constitutional rights and freedoms is a special interest.

FYI, I was trying to be balanced. I have been a member of the ACLU for many years and send them a fair amount of money.

I agree with you that the ACLU should not be considered a special interest, but suspect that many of my Republican friends might disagree.

Originally Posted by glunn

I agree with you that the ACLU should not be considered a special interest, but suspect that many of my Republican friends might disagree.

I think the ACLU certainly walks a fine line. They do a great job fighting for rights even when they are unpopular, but I think it's hard not to argue that many members of the ACLU slant towards the left. They also have become a bit more active in rights than defensive of those that exist. At least it seems that way to me.