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Thread: Article: Twins Organizational Depth Chart - First Base

  1. #21
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    jokin,
    The only point I'm saying is that it's easy for the negatives to say that a prospect isn't going to be this or isn't going to be that because the reality is that most don't become what we hope that they could be. Most don't become Hall of Famers. Only a few turn into frequent All Stars. I think and hope and believe that Miguel Sano can become a frequent All Star. But until he does, we don't know that he will...

    Likewise, it's easy to say Kepler is likely to become only a 4th outfielder. Well, as it relates to any minor leaguer, if he does become even a solid 4th OF, it's better than most will wind up. I believe he has the ability to be more than that.
    Sano is no ordinary prospect. For the vast majority of prospects, I can see your point. But some prospects are as close to sure things as you can get, barring carreer-ending injuries. Sano is one of those. Put it this way, would you have said the same thing about Mauer12 years ago, siply because the law of averages says he had a chance to be a bust?
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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    jokin (01-09-2014)

  3. #22
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    I wouldn't, but I also thought that Brandon Wood was going to be at least a very solid power hitter in the big leagues too.

  4. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    I wouldn't, but I also thought that Brandon Wood was going to be at least a very solid power hitter in the big leagues too.
    Wood had that one season at Rancho Cucamonga and several good but not great seasons elsewhere. That location and the California League are tricky. IIRC Dallas McPherson and Mike Napoli as well put monster numbers there. Other than that one season, Wood could not crack .300 isoP again. Even at the PCL. Sano cracked .300 isoP with 3 different teams in 3 different leagues (and not so much hitter leagues like the Eastern and FSL...)

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    ashburyjohn (01-10-2014)

  6. #24
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Physics Guy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Sano will be much better player than Beltre. The above is a no-brainer situation, just like the Mauer/Pierzynski or the Morneau/Mientkiewitz situation. Sell high on the veteran and keep the younger better prospect.

    But you cannot say the same for Kepler. There are 1B and OF prospects of similar age who are better than Kepler, will get to the big leagues earlier and stay longer.
    You do realize that Beltre is a borderline Hall of Fame candidate, right? I appreciate the positivity about Sano, but this might be pushing it. Besides his hitting accomplishments, he is a 4 time gold glove winner. Sano has the potential to be better, but I will be more than happy if he is close to Beltre.

    As for Kepler, who are the better prospects (especially at 1B)? They may get there earlier only because they are a year or two or three older. Whether they can keep Kepler out of the position is another question entirely.

  7. #25
    Senior Member Triple-A Paul Pleiss's Avatar
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    Kepler's move to first base, if it indeed becomes his permanent home, is a little sad for me. I've been high on him for a couple years and will be a little bummed to see him limited positionally, especially with Baby Jesus holding down first base for the foreseeable future. Still a lot to like with Kepler, no matter where he plays.

  8. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Physics Guy View Post
    As for Kepler, who are the better prospects (especially at 1B)? .
    Vargas, Harrison, Minier for starters and depends on how it plays, DJ Hicks potentially.

  9. #27
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Physics Guy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Vargas, Harrison, Minier for starters and depends on how it plays, DJ Hicks potentially.
    Kepler in E-town, age 19
    269 PA, .297/.387/.539

    Vargas in E-town, age 20
    191 PA, .322/.377/.489

    Harrison in E-town, age 19 (although he is a 3B)
    253 PA, .301/.383/.461

    Hicks in E-town, age 22
    136 PA, .270/.382/.435

    Did I ignore last year's stats? Yes, but he was hurt last year, so to compare his A stats is not fair. It is hard to compare Minier since he is still very young and is just starting. He does look like he has some power potential. Hicks had a nice year last year, but was 23 and spent about twice as much time at A as at A+. Vargas was a year older at A. Harrison is a close comparison by age and production, but I doubt they are willing to give up on him as a 3B. This is a big year for Kepler. He needs to stay healthy and show us that his year in E-town was not a fluke. Reports from the AFL were mostly positive. The only reason I can see for downgrading Kepler compared to the others was the fact that he didn't have great numbers last year, but clearly he was hurt. I don't disagree that the others are good prospects, I just think due to his age and relative inexperience that Kepler has the higher upside.

  10. #28
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Just b/c Kepler was very good in E-Town doesn't mean he should be ranked higher. Prospecting is very much a "what have you done for me lately?" type thing. People are ranking Kepler lower because there's definitely more risk to him now than what there was last year at this time. That's fine in my opinion. I don't think anyone is arguing that the ceiling for Kepler is a very good major league player, but his first year in rookie ball was pretty disappointing after his start. Yes, injury had something to do with that... and yes, he held is own in the AFL against much tougher competition, but he needs to come out healthy and perform at this point to get bumped up. I'm fine with him being in the teens... He's in a deep system and I think his performance merits that. If he does well in Fort Meyers, he's going to be much higher on the lists given his age, athleticism, and performance.

  11. #29
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    Seth, great series.....thanks.

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