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Thread: Article: Twins Organizational Depth Chart - First Base

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    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Article: Twins Organizational Depth Chart - First Base


  2. #2
    I hope I am wrong about Kepler...but I am not seeing him as a top 20 prospect. 5 years from now if he were to make the roster I can see his best(not average) year being 240 BA, 18 HRs. This would mean he would never play first base for the Twins before several of the other guys on this list. I think he has 4th outfielder written all over him...if he makes it at all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miraclemat View Post
    I hope I am wrong about Kepler...but I am not seeing him as a top 20 prospect. 5 years from now if he were to make the roster I can see his best(not average) year being 240 BA, 18 HRs. This would mean he would never play first base for the Twins before several of the other guys on this list. I think he has 4th outfielder written all over him...if he makes it at all.

    Chances are you are right. There are very few sure things when it comes to prospects.

    But it would be interesting to know why you say that. Lots of folks who have seen him think he could be a good one. He's young, doesn't have much experience, good athlete and has shown a decent eye with some power. Staying healthy and getting AB's has been his challenge to date.

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    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    From the standpoint of Most Prospects Don't Become Stars, I understand this. But when it comes to tools and the things that prospect people look at, Kepler has them. He has the height, the strength, the quickness and athleticism, a good baseball acumen, quick hands and a great swing.

    But of course at the end of the day, Kepler is more likely to become the next Laynce Nix than he is to become the next Josh Hamilton. In the same way, there's probably a 45% chance that Miguel Sano becomes the next Brandon Wood, a 45% chance he becomes the next Dean Palmer and a 10% chance he becomes the next Miguel Cabrera.

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    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    Understanding that the deck is stacked against any prospect who hasn't gotten out of A-ball yet, I don't see anything in Kepler that causes me to doubt his chances of ultimately becoming much more than a 4th outfielder.

    I do have doubts whether he'll ultimately be with the Twins when he reaches the Big Leagues as a regular.

    When you have to start using options on a guy who's still at Class A, the chances seem pretty good that you'll part ways before those options are gone.

    Add to it the fact that, while Kepler can play multiple positions, those positions all are pretty deep with young talent ahead of him. Mauer's contract won't expire before Kepler's options are gone and guys like Vargas and perhaps even Sano could end up succeeding Mauer eventually. When Seth gets around to looking at the organizational OF depth, I think it will be clear that Kepler has his work cut out for him breaking through that pack, too.

    Unless he makes some pretty remarkable accelerated progress up through the Classes, I think the most likely outcome will be that he's ultimately traded to an organization with less depth at OF/1B. Honestly, that probably wouldn't be the worst outcome for him, career-wise.
    Last edited by Jim Crikket; 01-09-2014 at 09:55 AM.

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    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Don't forget that Kepler will (if needed) have a fourth option.

    Also, his prospect status has nothing to do with how that fits into the organization's depth. That'd be like Miguel Sano being in the system with Adrian Beltre as the big league 3B... Sano isn't any less of a prospect just because there are good players above him.

    Kepler's tools are unreal. Obviously he has a long way to go, a lot of development...

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    I've never seen Kepler in person, and even if I had my opinion based on that would be worthless. Still, Kepler might be my pick for breakout player this season. This is based solely on all the comments about his athleticism. In an environment full of great athletes, he gets singled out as being uniquely athletic, doesn't he? Also, didn't we read something about the speed of balls hit off his bat being the best measured during the AFL? I don't think I imagined this, but...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post

    But of course at the end of the day, Kepler is more likely to become the next Laynce Nix than he is to become the next Josh Hamilton. In the same way, there's probably a 45% chance that Miguel Sano becomes the next Brandon Wood, a 45% chance he becomes the next Dean Palmer and a 10% chance he becomes the next Miguel Cabrera.
    Bite your tongue

    We're looking for Sano=Cabrera; Kepler=Hamilton; Meyer=Glavine; Buxton=Mays!!!!

    A person can always dream!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Crikket View Post
    Unless he makes some pretty remarkable accelerated progress up through the Classes, I think the most likely outcome will be that he's ultimately traded to an organization with less depth at OF/1B. Honestly, that probably wouldn't be the worst outcome for him, career-wise.
    Thats not all bad, Terry Ryan has shown a knack for trading Twins surplus into some useful players. More young starting pitching would be a plus!!!

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    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    I doubt Kepler starts at Cedar Rapids, but, if he does, he'll end up at Fort Myers sooner rather than later this year. You don't send a guy to the AFL and watch him languish behind a 17th rounder.

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    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    I'd say, Meyer is closer to Smoltz than Glavin.

  14. #12
    I'm still optimistic on Kepler but the production needs to catch up to the tools in the next few years. Kepler not looking out of place in the AFL as a 20 year old is a good sign. He will be of average age for a low A player if he repeats at Cedar Rapids in 2014. I think Kepler takes a big step forward this year if he stays healthy.

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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    Also, his prospect status has nothing to do with how that fits into the organization's depth. That'd be like Miguel Sano being in the system with Adrian Beltre as the big league 3B... Sano isn't any less of a prospect just because there are good players above him.
    Sano will be much better player than Beltre. The above is a no-brainer situation, just like the Mauer/Pierzynski or the Morneau/Mientkiewitz situation. Sell high on the veteran and keep the younger better prospect.

    But you cannot say the same for Kepler. There are 1B and OF prospects of similar age who are better than Kepler, will get to the big leagues earlier and stay longer.
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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    In the same way, there's probably a 45% chance that Miguel Sano becomes the next Brandon Wood, a 45% chance he becomes the next Dean Palmer and a 10% chance he becomes the next Miguel Cabrera.
    No way

    There is about 25% chance that Sano becomes the next Chris Davis, 25% chance he becomes the next Miguel Cabrera, 25% chance he becomes the next Harmon Killebrew and 25% chance that he is better than them all.

    He is that good. Already better than Brandon Wood or Dean Palmer ever were. Chris Davis is his floor.
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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I'd say, Meyer is closer to Smoltz than Glavin.
    Meyer is pretty close to a right handed Randy Johnson, if anything
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  18. #16
    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    May all our prospects become all stars and the beer be free!

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  20. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
    May all our prospects become all stars and the beer be free!
    I'm with Winston
    I couldn't be a player because of bad eyesight, so I decided to be an umpire instead.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    From the standpoint of Most Prospects Don't Become Stars, I understand this. But when it comes to tools and the things that prospect people look at, Kepler has them. He has the height, the strength, the quickness and athleticism, a good baseball acumen, quick hands and a great swing.

    But of course at the end of the day, Kepler is more likely to become the next Laynce Nix than he is to become the next Josh Hamilton. In the same way, there's probably a 45% chance that Miguel Sano becomes the next Brandon Wood, a 45% chance he becomes the next Dean Palmer and a 10% chance he becomes the next Miguel Cabrera.

    This assessment really surprised me coming from your normally optimistic prospect assessments (an area where we all tend to share higher levels of optimism, admittedly).

    But to say that Sano has a 90% chance to end up as either the Next Big Bust, or just another 1-time All Star cog in the wheel seems a might pessimistic in my mind. There's certainly a zone of quality in-between Cabrera and Palmer for Sano's career to land- and most Twins fans would be happy for it to happen.....and as Thrylos stated, Chris Davis should be the floor of that, to coin a phrase, "Zone of Quality."

    And ironically, Sano may still end up at 1B at some point in the near future, what with his current elbow situation.
    Last edited by jokin; 01-09-2014 at 05:10 PM.

  22. #19
    I guess Kepler's numbers don't show it. But when I saw him in Cedar Rapids the ball just jumped off his bat. And even though he has grown into his body I think he has enough talent to be a corner outfielder. I am more excited about his overall potential to be a regular in the bigs then Aaron Hicks. I'm anxious to see him healthy and hopefully at Fort Myers for a full year. I agree with Chucadoro and think he will be the breakout minor player of the year with big numbers at Fort Myers.
    Last edited by Rick Niedermann; 01-09-2014 at 06:55 PM.

  23. #20
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    jokin,
    The only point I'm saying is that it's easy for the negatives to say that a prospect isn't going to be this or isn't going to be that because the reality is that most don't become what we hope that they could be. Most don't become Hall of Famers. Only a few turn into frequent All Stars. I think and hope and believe that Miguel Sano can become a frequent All Star. But until he does, we don't know that he will...

    Likewise, it's easy to say Kepler is likely to become only a 4th outfielder. Well, as it relates to any minor leaguer, if he does become even a solid 4th OF, it's better than most will wind up. I believe he has the ability to be more than that.

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