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Thread: Article: More Dingers for Dozier?

  1. #21
    Owner Big-Leaguer Parker Hageman's Avatar
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    Oh, and the 53% for the ESPN trumedia does not include cutters/sinkers whereas the BIS/Fangraphs fastball count does.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parker Hageman View Post
    Subtle difference but Fangraphs uses BIS video scouts for their data source while ESPN tru media, I believe, uses a combination of Inside Edge and Pitch F/X.
    Interesting -- thanks, Parker.

    At the end of the day, FB% only correlates at something like 75% from year-to-year for hitters around the league. We can guess that he'll see fewer next year, in which case Mr. Dozier will need to be patient and allow that BB% to tick up. I think the one thing we can be certain of is that the league will definitely adjust in one way or another and it is up to Brian to respond to that.

  3. #23
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Make him a bad MLB starter, no, I don't think so.

    Which is why I think Dozier's floor is somewhere just north of a .700 .
    That floor is too high IMO, not until we see him adjust. But I agree that even with a dip he's a part of this teams future. I worry people, and the team, may give up on him for a very understandable and natural hiccup next year.

  4. #24
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    That floor is too high IMO, not until we see him adjust. But I agree that even with a dip he's a part of this teams future. I worry people, and the team, may give up on him for a very understandable and natural hiccup next year.
    If he continues to walk (which I think he will), it would take a Jamey Carroll-esque SLG to not reach a .700 OPS. No matter how you view Brian Dozier, I think he can be counted on for a SLG of .375, which is hardly earth-shattering. That puts him somewhere around .700 overall.

    It's really hard for a guy to post a respectable walk rate and not approach a .700 OPS unless he's a singles machine. Even if Dozier stops hitting dingers, the doubles should still come steadily.

  5. This user likes Brock Beauchamp's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    Oldgoat_MN (01-09-2014)

  6. #25
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    If he continues to walk (which I think he will), it would take a Jamey Carroll-esque SLG to not reach a .700 OPS. No matter how you view Brian Dozier, I think he can be counted on for a SLG of .375, which is hardly earth-shattering. That puts him somewhere around .700 overall.

    It's really hard for a guy to post a respectable walk rate and not approach a .700 OPS unless he's a singles machine. Even if Dozier stops hitting dingers, the doubles should still come steadily.
    OBP also factors more than just walks. With his batting average a dip to a 375 SLG would make him a 685 OPS player. WHich is a better floor IMO.

  7. #26
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    OBP also factors more than just walks. With his batting average a dip to a 375 SLG would make him a 685 OPS player. WHich is a better floor IMO.
    Only if you use his entire 2013 stat line and ignore that he had a ~.260 OBP in April-May and a ~.340 OBP from June-September.

    Again, using Dozier's 2013 stat line is pretty misleading. He was a different player in those first two months.

  8. #27
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Only if you use his entire 2013 stat line and ignore that he had a ~.260 OBP in April-May and a ~.340 OBP from June-September.

    Again, using Dozier's 2013 stat line is pretty misleading. He was a different player in those first two months.
    June and August are every bit the outlier April or May are, it's just more beneficial to your argument. Hence why I take the whole season, it's a more fair argument then the one you are making.

    I see a hitter with a lot of ups and downs. He's just as capable of being down as up in a season with a lot of adjustments. Hopefully we all brace for that and ride it through to him being a big part of the team's future.

  9. #28
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    June and August are every bit the outlier April or May are, it's just more beneficial to your argument. Hence why I take the whole season, it's a more fair argument then the one you are making.
    Except that you can draw a line in the sand the day Dozier changed his approach. He stopped swinging and started walking that day. I'm not talking about fluctuations in BABIP or homers. He drastically altered his approach and yes, he started also hitting for more power but he started taking more BB and hitting for a higher average, as well.

    The power and, to an extent, the BA might fluctuate... But not the underlying discipline, which is what we're talking about here.

    Either you believe Brian Dozier has permanently changed his approach and is going to continue walking more or you believe he's going to revert to being a very bad baseball player. I don't see a lot of room in between those arguments when it comes to plate approach. The power, yeah, that's very debatable... But not the discipline. If he goes back to swinging at bad pitches, he will not be the starting second basemen in July.

    Hence, an OPS floor somewhere around .700. If he's going to keep walking, he's going to post an OBP north of .320. Add in a SLG of .375 and there's your .700.

    If he doesn't keep walking, he's out of the league by season's end because he's almost certainly posting an OPS under .600 again.

    This isn't about using stats beneficial to my argument, it's about acknowledging that he made significant changes in approach some time in early June and ignoring some of stats previous to that point because they are no longer relevant to him as a player.

  10. #29
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Except that you can draw a line in the sand the day Dozier changed his approach.
    Then why isn't September what we're expecting? All of the things you can cite about his approach were there and nothing was outlying.

    That's a .680 OPS player, probably more likely what to expect. Like it or not, you're looking at a rosy picture, not a realistic one.

  11. #30
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Oldgoat_MN's Avatar
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    Over/under on Dozier's OPS for 2014 is .680?

    Millions would take that bet.
    And almost all of them would say, "Over".
    I'm on a whiskey diet. I've lost 3 days already.

  12. #31
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldgoat_MN View Post
    Over/under on Dozier's OPS for 2014 is .680?

    Millions would take that bet.
    And almost all of them would say, "Over".
    Well, yeah, because we were talking about his floor. I'd take the over too, that's what a floor is.

  13. #32
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Then why isn't September what we're expecting? All of the things you can cite about his approach were there and nothing was outlying.

    That's a .680 OPS player, probably more likely what to expect. Like it or not, you're looking at a rosy picture, not a realistic one.
    I don't know what's so rosy about "Brian Dozier either has a floor of .700 OPS or he's out of the league". I simply don't see a world where he maintains solid plate discipline but can't SLG at a .375 clip. He's either going to revert in plate discipline and collapse completely or he'll be somewhere around a 100 OPS+ player.

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