01-09-2014, 01:24 PM #21
Oh, and the 53% for the ESPN trumedia does not include cutters/sinkers whereas the BIS/Fangraphs fastball count does.
01-09-2014, 02:03 PM #22
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At the end of the day, FB% only correlates at something like 75% from year-to-year for hitters around the league. We can guess that he'll see fewer next year, in which case Mr. Dozier will need to be patient and allow that BB% to tick up. I think the one thing we can be certain of is that the league will definitely adjust in one way or another and it is up to Brian to respond to that.
01-09-2014, 04:01 PM #23
01-09-2014, 04:11 PM #24
It's really hard for a guy to post a respectable walk rate and not approach a .700 OPS unless he's a singles machine. Even if Dozier stops hitting dingers, the doubles should still come steadily.
This user likes Brock Beauchamp's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:
01-09-2014, 04:54 PM #25
01-09-2014, 05:21 PM #26
01-09-2014, 05:43 PM #27
I see a hitter with a lot of ups and downs. He's just as capable of being down as up in a season with a lot of adjustments. Hopefully we all brace for that and ride it through to him being a big part of the team's future.
01-09-2014, 05:57 PM #28
The power and, to an extent, the BA might fluctuate... But not the underlying discipline, which is what we're talking about here.
Either you believe Brian Dozier has permanently changed his approach and is going to continue walking more or you believe he's going to revert to being a very bad baseball player. I don't see a lot of room in between those arguments when it comes to plate approach. The power, yeah, that's very debatable... But not the discipline. If he goes back to swinging at bad pitches, he will not be the starting second basemen in July.
Hence, an OPS floor somewhere around .700. If he's going to keep walking, he's going to post an OBP north of .320. Add in a SLG of .375 and there's your .700.
If he doesn't keep walking, he's out of the league by season's end because he's almost certainly posting an OPS under .600 again.
This isn't about using stats beneficial to my argument, it's about acknowledging that he made significant changes in approach some time in early June and ignoring some of stats previous to that point because they are no longer relevant to him as a player.
01-09-2014, 06:26 PM #29
That's a .680 OPS player, probably more likely what to expect. Like it or not, you're looking at a rosy picture, not a realistic one.
01-09-2014, 07:14 PM #30
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Over/under on Dozier's OPS for 2014 is .680?
Millions would take that bet.
And almost all of them would say, "Over".I'm on a whiskey diet. I've lost 3 days already.
01-09-2014, 07:26 PM #31
01-09-2014, 07:34 PM #32