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Thread: Article: The Case for Stephen Drew

  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready View Post

    Swisher was middle of the pack for 1B.
    Swisher was actually above average for a first baseman offensively. He was also worth 3.8 WAR.

    Bourne was near the bottom. He had SO 23%, had an ISO of .097 and an OPS of 676.
    Those stats are about what his career averages are. You are paying for defense and speed with Bourn. He was still worth 2.4 WAR.

    I think Cleveland’s improvement could be interpreted differently. Masterson went from an ERA of 4.93 in 2012 to 3.45 in 2013. Jimenez improved from an ERA of 5.40 to 3.30. They added Kazmir who pitched to a 4.04 ERA and was really good the 2nd half. Kluber went from 5.14 to 3.85. McAlister improved from 4.24 to 3.75. I realize this is a bit farfetched but it’s the rough equivalent to getting rid of a rather poor staff and replacing it with 3 of Nolasco and 2 of Garza at his very best.

    I would attribute their improvement to massive improvement in their two primary starters, and two young guys panning out nicely (McAlister / Kluber) as well as a FA pick-up frequently characterized as dumpster diving here. (Kazmir)
    I believe it was the accumulation of many things that helped their turn around. Pitching was a big part of it, but so were Bourn and Swisher.

    You also have to consider who do they have to replace that production. They lose 2 more games they are not in the playoffs. They lose 1, they would have played game 163. Pretty sure Swisher and Bourn helped them win at least two more games.

  2. #82
    Senior Member Triple-A Reider's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marta Shearing View Post
    I have never understood why so many people are concerned about saving Pohlad's money. As if 3/$30m to drew would hamstring the franchise. For goodness sake, even with their signings, payroll has barely gone up, and with this new massive mlb revenue deal, the money is flowing in. They SHOULD be overpaying right now BECAUSE THEY CAN!
    My point clearly went over yours and Mikes' heads. It's not about saving money or keeping the payroll as low as possible. It's about value, opportunity cost, and getting the most improvement for your dollar. For instance, at the start of the season, everyone was in agreement that the easiest way to improve the team was to sign FA SP's. That made complete sense, when doing a cost-benefit analysis. I placed signing starting pitchers at the top and signing Stephen Drew at (or near) the bottom of the priority list based on how much improvement the team will have compared with how much $ is spent. And based on how the Twins have been spending this off season, they are in complete agreement with my cost-benefit analysis and not yours.

  3. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    I'm curious why you continued to assert that Worley and Diamond's poor performance in 2013 was injury related and then don't give Drew the same consideration. Especially when there is statistical evidence that supports it.
    I never said it might not be the reason, but it's speculation. It could certainly turn out to be untrue - same for Worley and Diamond.

    I've read nothing but good from managers and players in regards to Drew.
    In, what exactly? You hear sterling comments about jerk players all the time because the vast majority of the time players, managers, and owners keep their negative comments behind closed doors. The rare exception like this is far more meaningful, as it is in any case in which someone is blunt and straightforward in an interview.

    Like I've said, I'm not opposed to signing him. I'm ok with it. But there are clearly some issues with this guy. As there is with most any player really.

  4. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    I'm curious why you continued to assert that Worley and Diamond's poor performance in 2013 was injury related and then don't give Drew the same consideration. Especially when there is statistical evidence that supports it.



    Prior to that ankle injury, he had been on the DL one time. Here was his games played in the prior four full seasons: 150, 152, 135, 151. He was on pace for another 150+ games before he got hurt in 2011. So what more should he have done for his organization?

    I've read nothing but good from managers and players in regards to Drew. I'd rather believe those comments than the one negative comment that I've read (other than fans) from an owner that also called out his 24 year old star player before shipping him out of town.





    As you mentioned, our shortstop situation is terrible. Other than the Mets, the other teams mentioned are even further out of contention(Marlins, Astros) or have a viable shortstop(Giants, Blue Jays, Pirates).

    The competition is really down to the Mets and the Red Sox.
    Are the Twins a part of this competition?

  5. #85
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Well, one that jumps out is the Mets. Also the Giants, Toronto, Houston, Miami, Pittsburgh all could benefit from him.
    Tor picks 11th, SF picks 14th (they also have Crawford), and Houston has Villar. Pittsburgh is cheap, and Miami is cheaper.

    There's no market. That's why nobody's interested in Drew.

  6. #86
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    I have to admit I didn't understand Escobar not getting a shot last season. I guess the question to me is whether or not Escobar can be a good ML SS. With Florimon, you get a good glove for cheap. I'd rather have Drew than Florimon, but I'm not sold on the price. I'm not going to get worked up about this either way, but why is it that I have this gut feeling that we are going to sign Drew only to watch Escobar outperform him...

  7. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready View Post
    the odds of Drew contributing to a contender are zero for the 1st two years.
    I'm not sure how you can assume it's zero, especially for two years. I don't remember one projection that Cleveland would make the playoffs last year.

    Signing Drew should not be the final move as it leans towards contending within the first two years. There's still flexibility to improve the team after his signing. Drew would just be the biggest immediate upgrade for what's available. He is also going to be a good value considering what the market is.

    Barring injury or a complete breakdown (which is a risk for any free agent), you could always recoup value through a trade, if the team continues to fail.

  8. #88
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    As a mod, I just wanted to compliment everyone posting in this thread, pro and con, for making good points and staying away from negative emotions.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  9. These 2 users like USAFChief's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    jokin (01-07-2014), snepp (01-08-2014)

  10. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Given what Baltimore probably wants for one season of Hardy, I'd rather have Drew. If the Twins can't retain Hardy after 2014, they will have given up some kind of prospect for no good reason, as they're likely to miss the playoffs anyway. At least with Drew, you're only sacrificing a draft pick and you get him for at least two seasons, maybe three (but hopefully two).
    Definitely wouldn't trade Hardy for a high prospect. But i would like to see them make a legitimate playoff run, should they crap out, they always would have the chance to recoup the prospect in a deadline trade or make a QO at season's end. The Orioles are looking for SP depth (a #4-5 and a #2 type), a LF, a DH and a closer. The Twins potentially line up here for a trade of major leaguers (Plouffe plus somebody below their 5 best pitching prospects...or Correia + lower prospect?)
    Last edited by jokin; 01-07-2014 at 11:42 PM.

  11. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by AM. View Post
    Are the Twins a part of this competition?
    I'm not sure, but obviously I feel they should be . Comments and reports are leaning me to believe they are not.

    I had little to no idea they were close on Nolasco and Hughes. Then BOOM, they were signed. So maybe the Twins could be the infamous "mystery team" that comes out of nowhere.

  12. #91
    Senior Member Triple-A Reider's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Given the Twins current roster, what other position can you find a better bang for buck than shortstop?

    C - Pinto - sink or swim, not going to add value here
    1B - Mauer
    2B - Dozier, backed up by Rosario in 2015
    SS - Florimon
    3B - Plouffe, backed up by Sano
    LF - Willingham
    CF - Scrub Player X, backed up by Hicks and later, Buxton
    RF - Arcia
    DH - Parmelee/Arcia/Willingham/Plouffe

    Looking at that lineup, there isn't much room for improvement that doesn't involve either trading a player to make room or blocking a young player coming through the system.
    Center field is wide open, so that would be a good place to start. What about 3rd base, when's the last time we had a bona fide 3rd baseman? Plouffe is not even close to as good of a defender as Florimon. Plouffe hits home runs, but if he's not hitting home runs, he can go. We don't have a DH, unless you do DH by committee. Parmelee, like Plouffe, is at the end of his rope. We don't have a good Catcher anymore. Suzuki doesn't bring much to the table offensively, yet there isn't a peep being said about him.

    The Twins could also sign one more starting pitcher considering Deduno might not be as healthy as we want him in 2014.. What about Garza?

    Florimon is the only positional player on the team who is within striking distance at being #2 in the MLB defensively at his position and he just came off his first full season in the MLB. Considering his price tag and the fact that the Twins aren't going anywhere next year, I think he's earned at least one more season to show some sort of improvement.

    I'd rather the Twins upgrade Center Field (empty), 3rd base (Plouffe is at the end of his rope), DH (empty), Catcher (Suzuki?), 1 more starting pitcher (Deduno's health is a ?) before SS. I think when you have a guy who has the tools to potentially be the #2 SS next year @ $500,000, you give him an opportunity to improve both this defense and his hitting.

    I was just fine with JJ Hardy as our SS. It's unfortunate that the FO didn't see him as a long term solution. The Twins are going through a transition so there are going to be some tough decisions. Do you sign someone or do you give X player a chance. Do you sign someone or do you put filler out there until x prospect is ready? There are a lot of tough decisions and I would prefer if the Twins didn't make too many knee jerk reactions. So far, I think they are doing a pretty good job this off season.
    Last edited by Reider; 01-07-2014 at 10:41 PM.

  13. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    My point clearly went over yours and Mikes' heads. It's not about saving money or keeping the payroll as low as possible. It's about value, opportunity cost, and getting the most improvement for your dollar. For instance, at the start of the season, everyone was in agreement that the easiest way to improve the team was to sign FA SP's. That made complete sense, when doing a cost-benefit analysis. I placed signing starting pitchers at the top and signing Stephen Drew at (or near) the bottom of the priority list based on how much improvement the team will have compared with how much $ is spent. And based on how the Twins have been spending this off season, they are in complete agreement with my cost-benefit analysis and not yours.

    Florimon is the only positional player on the team who is within striking distance at being #2 in the MLB defensively at his position and he just came off his first full season in the MLB. Considering his price tag and the fact that the Twins aren't going anywhere next year, I think he's earned at least one more season to show some sort of improvement.
    How is it a "fact" that the Twins aren't going anywhere next year? More significant improvements are still doable and you might get your prime prospects producing by June 1.


    I think everyone was in complete agreement that the SP issue needed to be dealt with. Most fans have been calling for what TR finally did this offseason since he came out of retirement, and before then.

    The problem with you being right in line with Twins management is that they've been so wrong before in overestimating what their existing talent can actually deliver. At this point, the offense for 2014 looks to be even more anemic than 2013. The cost-benefit analysis in my book is dropping the team ERA for lets say, $40M/yr with the addition of Garza and subtraction of Correia, by, let's say one run/gm. means nothing but a shot at .500 if the GM stands pat with the bats and the offensive RPG drops by 0.5/gm. The money is most certainly available, the player is available (Drew or Hardy). Now throw in the what-if..... Sano and Meyer join the team by May-June and put up ROY-level numbers, you now have a fighting chance to get towards being a wild-card contender.
    Last edited by jokin; 01-07-2014 at 10:46 PM.

  14. #93
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Physics Guy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    Swisher was actually above average for a first baseman offensively. He was also worth 3.8 WAR.

    Those stats are about what his career averages are. You are paying for defense and speed with Bourn. He was still worth 2.4 WAR.
    I know this is off topic a bit, but indulge me. I don't get it. fWar for Swisher and Bourn were 2.4 and 2.0 respectively. I saw the number for Swisher and was really doubtful he could be so high. bWar and fWar can have significant differences.

    Look at this comp:
    Swisher 634 PA (mostly at 1B), .246/.341/.423 3.8 bWar
    Morneau 635 PA, .259/.323/.426 2.0 bWar
    It even looks as though Morneau get penalized more for defense than Swisher although his stats are better at 1B and Swisher was below average in the OF.

  15. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    At this point, the offense for 2014 looks to be even more anemic than 2013.
    I agree with you wholeheartedly. I'm happy the Twins signed starting pitchers, but I'm concerned about the offense just as much as everybody else. I don't know what the solution is because it seems like we are waiting on a bunch of the young guys to come up and take over. That would explain why nobody expects the Twins to go anywhere for at least a year or two.

  16. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    I agree with you wholeheartedly. I'm happy the Twins signed starting pitchers, but I'm concerned about the offense just as much as everybody else. I don't know what the solution is because it seems like we are waiting on a bunch of the young guys to come up and take over.
    Drew or Hardy @ SS...Sign Michael Young (for cheap) or Morales to DH, Trade for Jason Castro to C. You instantly improve your positional OPS numbers at each position to the upper third in the league or better.

  17. #96
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Physics Guy's Avatar
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    How many people here actually thought after last year's offseason the Twins might be considering such things as signing Drew and Garza after already signing Nolasco, Hughes and Pelfrey? It's nice to be discussing this with a hint that the Twins might even be considering it. I realize that a great deal of it has to do with salary that was cleared from last year and the extra $25M from MLB, but it's nice to at least have more hope going in to the upcoming season.

  18. #97
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Physics Guy's Avatar
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    Now we need our first wave of young guys to step up and improve!

  19. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pleiss View Post
    It makes me happy that I'm not the only who who keeps mistakenly thinking/saying/typing J.D. Drew instead of Stephen Drew.

    I wont be surprised if the Twins pass on Drew, but I sure would be tickled pink if they could ink him to a deal.
    I mentioned it in passing and as a throwaway in a different thread, but would the Drew family be enticed to sign here in a Drew reunion scenario in Minnesota, with JD coming out of retirement and assuming the Jim Thome role?

  20. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Drew or Hardy @ SS...Sign Michael Young (for cheap) or Morales to DH, Trade for Jason Castro to C. You instantly improve your positional OPS numbers at each position to the upper third in the league or better.
    I don't disagree with you about those guys improving the offense at all. And I would be quite pleased if signing those guys (in addition to the SP's the Twins already signed) resulted in a +.500 record and / or a chance at the playoffs.

    As much as I like Florimon, I would be fine if the Twins took an "all in" approach and replaced him as I am sick and tired of watching the Twins fight for last, just like every other fan. However, if the Twins don't take the all-in approach offensively, i'd rather Florimon be given a chance to improve his numbers from last season.

    As a side note, Plouffe and Parmelee have had plenty of opportunities already and they are still around. Replace those guys and then we'll talk about replacing Florimon.

  21. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by Physics Guy View Post
    How many people here actually thought after last year's offseason the Twins might be considering such things as signing Drew and Garza after already signing Nolasco, Hughes and Pelfrey? It's nice to be discussing this with a hint that the Twins might even be considering it. I realize that a great deal of it has to do with salary that was cleared from last year and the extra $25M from MLB, but it's nice to at least have more hope going in to the upcoming season.

    Now we need our first wave of young guys to step up and improve!
    I'm pumped for both sets of possibilities that you pose and want for the Twins to feel the fan pressure to avoid taking Half Measures when the time appears to be right to take Full Measures. I think the Twins have become fully acceptant that significant measures must be taken to wash away the bad taste of the last 3 years- and try to capitalize on trying to return to relevancy while their future HOFer can still produce (I learned that important "measures" principle from watching Mike Ehrmantraut)
    Last edited by jokin; 01-07-2014 at 11:25 PM.

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