Page 10 of 12 FirstFirst ... 89101112 LastLast
Results 181 to 200 of 235

Thread: Article: The Case for Stephen Drew

  1. #181
    Super Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
    Posts
    6,967
    Like
    1,035
    Liked 1,249 Times in 749 Posts
    Blog Entries
    28
    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    if he limits those "easy" mistakes he made in 2013, which I believe is a mental thing and can be corrected.
    Which we've been saying for, what, three off-seasons now? That was the book on him when he was picked up off waivers. He has improved on that. Some.

  2. #182
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,138
    Like
    3
    Liked 177 Times in 105 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    In regards to contract, what do people think is realistic? MLBTR said this back in November:

    the fourth year will be a sticking point for most teams, along with the draft pick, and a three-year deal in the $36-42MM range is possible. But I see Drew closer to the Michael Bourn range, so I'm predicting a four-year, $48MM deal.
    3/33 looks like his floor, doesn't it?
    Last edited by spycake; 01-09-2014 at 11:27 AM.

  3. #183
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    289
    Like
    4
    Liked 44 Times in 30 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I agree but in signing these guys, I don't want someone who is going to HURT the team in 2015 and 2016.
    Nolasco is older, got more years, and more money than Drew will. Career ERA+ of 94, coming off of his best year since 2008, where he was.. league average. Why is he less likely to hurt the team?

    Here's a comparison of Drew, Garza and Nolasco. All three players entered the league in 2008.

    Career WAR 2013 WAR (Likely) Contract
    Drew (31) 16.1 3.1 3 years, $30M
    Garza (30) 14.8 1.4 4 years, $60M
    Nolasco (31) 10.8 1.8 4 years, $49M

    The projection on Drew is likely close to the ceiling on the contract he'd get. The projection on Garza is likely the floor.

    can only play against righties
    Ellsbury got 150+ million and his OPS dropped by over 200 points against lefties. Choo got 130 million and his OPS dropped by almost 400 points against lefties. Left handed batters generally don't hit lefties well. As Brock pointed out, Drew is on the valuable side of the platoon.

    Drew also still brings value on defense. He's not a one dimensional player. Here's an excerpt from an article written about Drew during the world series:

    "Drew has overall been a good defensive shortstop this season and this series he's been exceptional, probably saving a run or two single-handedly. Take the leaping catch on a line drive pictured above from Game 5, a sick glove-scoop in Game 4 or any number of rangy plays -- whether charging weak grounders, going up the middle or into the hole -- he finishes with ease. He makes the difficult play look routine."


    Move him down in the line up or give him a day off against the occasional left handed starter. He's still a valuable player.
    Last edited by JP3700; 01-09-2014 at 12:55 PM.

  4. This user likes JP3700's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    USAFChief (01-09-2014)

  5. #184
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    289
    Like
    4
    Liked 44 Times in 30 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    In regards to contract, what do people think is realistic? MLBTR said this back in November:

    the fourth year will be a sticking point for most teams, along with the draft pick, and a three-year deal in the $36-42MM range is possible. But I see Drew closer to the Michael Bourn range, so I'm predicting a four-year, $48MM deal.

    3/33 looks like his floor, doesn't it?
    From recent reports I've read, three years seems to be his ceiling. That's why I think he would be a good sign. He'd be coming at a good value. What was the floor coming into the offseason looks to be his ceiling now.

    If Peralta got 4/53, Drew at 3/33 looks to be a bargain.

  6. #185
    Super Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
    Posts
    6,967
    Like
    1,035
    Liked 1,249 Times in 749 Posts
    Blog Entries
    28
    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    Nolasco is older, got more years, and more money than Drew will. Career ERA+ of 94, coming off of his best year since 2008, where he was.. league average. Why is he less likely to hurt the team?
    Because it's not a good comparison. Starting pitchers usually as a group have a higher ERA than the bullpen corps. But you can't construct a better than average staff by only having relievers; someone has to pitch more innings than that. You pitch differently if you know you're expected to go 6+ innings. Achieving an OPS+ in the 90s won't get a starter into many All Star games, but it does provide value to a team.

  7. #186
    Super Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
    Posts
    5,308
    Like
    1,399
    Liked 1,063 Times in 476 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I agree but in signing these guys, I don't want someone who is going to HURT the team in 2015 and 2016. A SS on the wrong side of 30 who can't stay healthy and can only play against righties looks to be a liability by 2015 if not 2014.
    In addition to the excellent rebuttal above, I'd add my opinion that Hughes has a much higher liklihood of being wasted money than Drew in any future year....and if we're going to platton all players that show platoon splits, we're going to need larger rosters.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  8. #187
    A high ceiling. My opinion is if Terry Ryan signes Drew for 3/33 then we'll know that Ryan was bidding against himself (again).

    In review, and setting aside all the yeah but yeah buts, Drew's games started at SS last three years (compared to Peralta, who also is more versatile):

    2011: 83 games (140 Peralta)
    2012: 75 games (145)
    2013: 122 games (103)

    At 3/33 playing half seasons is I agree a cost/benefit not worth the money. I see the Mets/Pirates/Twins/Sox/ as potential landing pads but on a one year trial.

    Also,

    Twins starters at SS since we gave Hardy the boot after 2010:

    2011: Nishioka 59, Plouffe 45, Casilla 36, Tolbert 22
    2012: Dozier 81, Florimon 42, Carroll 36, Escobar 3
    2013: Florimon 127, Escobar 21

    More importantly, I believe stability at short will go a long way towards getting the team back on track in ways that are harder to quantify. I love the potential reliability and familiarity of Florimon over the "Door #3" quality of Drew. Florimon is not young but also not exactly over the hill, he might yet learn something about hitting and improve a little. Note that I said might . Punto was 28 when he came out of the blue to hit 290. So you never know. But great arguments on both sides for sure.

  9. This user likes Hosken Bombo Disco's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    Reider (01-09-2014)

  10. #188
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    289
    Like
    4
    Liked 44 Times in 30 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    Because it's not a good comparison. Starting pitchers usually as a group have a higher ERA than the bullpen corps. But you can't construct a better than average staff by only having relievers; someone has to pitch more innings than that. You pitch differently if you know you're expected to go 6+ innings. Achieving an OPS+ in the 90s won't get a starter into many All Star games, but it does provide value to a team.
    Those are all good points but my response was to the thought that Drew would hurt the team. Considering past performance, age and contract figures, it's much more likely that Drew earns his contract than Nolasco does his.

    ERA+ in the 90s have some value, but at the back end of a rotation on a winning team, and don't usually cost $12M a year.

  11. #189
    Senior Member Double-A
    Posts
    158
    Like
    11
    Liked 22 Times in 20 Posts
    I feel like the only real argument I can understand is that he would cost a draft pick. Assuming we're right on that he would only require a 3 year contract in the 10-12 million per year area then he's not going to limit this team. Even with that contract I think we'd be around 75-80 million in 2015 with Correia and Willingham coming off the books. Doesn't limit us financially then either.

    I'm not a big believer that 2nd round picks are more than a guessing game. You like to have those lottery tickets and of course there are some great players taken in the 2nd round but I think it's more luck than anything. Do you sell that lottery ticket for a guy like Drew? I think so. He and Dozier could bring a lot of stability to the keystone and Drew might bring a nice veteran presence to a very young group of position players.

    Not worried about blocking Santana either and Polanco at best would be up in 2016 assuming he works out.

  12. #190
    Banned All-Star
    Posts
    1,498
    Like
    419
    Liked 75 Times in 49 Posts
    Signing Drew and giving up the draft pick , would be comparible to re-signing Nishi...
    Save the Money and Sign the Cuban kid Diaz.....

  13. #191
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    289
    Like
    4
    Liked 44 Times in 30 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by Hosken Bombo Disco View Post
    In review, and setting aside all the yeah but yeah buts, Drew's games started at SS last three years (compared to Peralta, who also is more versatile):

    2011: 83 games (140 Peralta)
    2012: 75 games (145)
    2013: 122 games (103)
    I'm not sure it's fair to set aside the yeah buts, and then compare him to a player coming off of a PED suspension.

    I'm also not sure it's fair to imply someone is injury prone from a couple of freak injuries.

    Shouldn't Drew get credit for the 143, 147, 128, 147 prior to the ankle injury that cost him half of 2011 and 2012?

    Injuries happen. Like bilateral leg weakness and foul tips to the head. Or in Drew's case, a slide into home plate and getting drilled in the head by a pitch.

    Also,

    Twins starters at SS since we gave Hardy the boot after 2010:

    2011: Nishioka 59, Plouffe 45, Casilla 36, Tolbert 22
    2012: Dozier 81, Florimon 42, Carroll 36, Escobar 3
    2013: Florimon 127, Escobar 21
    I'd say that this list is more reason for the Twins to sign Drew.

  14. #192
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    289
    Like
    4
    Liked 44 Times in 30 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    Signing Drew and giving up the draft pick , would be comparible to re-signing Nishi...
    Save the Money and Sign the Cuban kid Diaz.....
    Pass on the proven MLB player because it's comparable to signing an unproven international player.....

    So you can use that money to sign an unproven international player.

  15. #193
    Super Moderator All-Star twinsnorth49's Avatar
    Posts
    2,924
    Like
    468
    Liked 606 Times in 325 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I agree but in signing these guys, I don't want someone who is going to HURT the team in 2015 and 2016. A SS on the wrong side of 30 who can't stay healthy and can only play against righties looks to be a liability by 2015 if not 2014.
    Since when can Florimon hit lefties?

  16. This user likes twinsnorth49's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    ashburyjohn (01-09-2014)

  17. #194
    Banned All-Star
    Posts
    1,498
    Like
    419
    Liked 75 Times in 49 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    Pass on the proven MLB player because it's comparable to signing an unproven international player.....

    So you can use that money to sign an unproven international player.
    1 Your giving up a top 45 draft pick in a pitcher heavy draft
    2 Drew had an ok year in hitter friendly Fennway....
    3 A Diaz has proven himself on the international stage
    4 I would rather have a young kid growup with the team,
    and be here for 5 or more years then to sign a declining veteran....
    5 If we were a .250 hitter away from making a playoff run ,then maybe I think about wasting the money(30+ million)
    but the Twins are hoping for 70-80 win season , so it makes no sense to sign Drew.....
    Last edited by johnnydakota; 01-09-2014 at 02:45 PM.

  18. This user likes johnnydakota's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    Reider (01-09-2014)

  19. #195
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    4,609
    Like
    512
    Liked 214 Times in 147 Posts
    How is it wasting money to be better, and why do you care if they "waste it" or pocket it?
    Lighten up Francis....

  20. #196
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
    Posts
    6,692
    Like
    32
    Liked 772 Times in 423 Posts
    Blog Entries
    6
    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    2 Drew had an ok year in hitter friendly Fennway....
    In fairness to Drew, he is not the type of hitter that thrives in Fenway. He has zero opposite field power.

  21. #197
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
    Posts
    3,791
    Like
    26
    Liked 316 Times in 188 Posts
    Blog Entries
    198
    Quote Originally Posted by Hosken Bombo Disco View Post
    More importantly, I believe stability at short will go a long way towards getting the team back on track in ways that are harder to quantify. I love the potential reliability and familiarity of Florimon over the "Door #3" quality of Drew. Florimon is not young but also not exactly over the hill, he might yet learn something about hitting and improve a little. Note that I said might . Punto was 28 when he came out of the blue to hit 290. So you never know. But great arguments on both sides for sure.
    I agree that stability at short (and at second) helps the team defensively tremendously. But:
    a. the Twins had an extremely stable IF last season. That did not take them many places.
    b. Define "reliability" please. Florimon is a tad more reliable than Butera with the stick and he was 4th in errors committed in the majors (and second in the AL) at SS last season.
    -----
    Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/
    twitter: @thrylos98

  22. This user likes Thrylos's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    ashburyjohn (01-09-2014)

  23. #198
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer crarko's Avatar
    Posts
    738
    Like
    87
    Liked 291 Times in 156 Posts
    Just to bust up the monotony I wonder what the reaction will be when Jason Bartlett is named the opening day SS?

    Actually, I'd really like to see Dozier get another chance, but that seems unlikely at this point.

  24. #199
    Senior Member Double-A
    Posts
    158
    Like
    11
    Liked 22 Times in 20 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    Signing Drew and giving up the draft pick , would be comparible to re-signing Nishi...
    Save the Money and Sign the Cuban kid Diaz.....
    That makes no sense, how are those two things at all the same?

    Drew is a proven player who was decent even in his worst years which were bad partially due to injury. He has a .764 career OPS and last year was .777? So yes he had a good year but it's pretty much in line with his career averages. Had a couple bad injury years, last year did much better and played much more. Nishi was an international player who didn't pan out and has no shot at a major league career at this point. So signing a guy who's had a solid major league career is equal to giving up a 2nd round pick and signing a failed prospect . . . I don't see the comparison.

    If you don't like Drew that's fine and if you don't want to give up the draft pick? cool, you value draft picks more than I do I guess. To me Drew should be a solid contributor. If anything Signing Diaz is more comparable to the original signing of Nishi in that neither one of them has played major league ball before. That said, I dont' compare those two either.

    Also, sure if we can get Diaz, great. I'd rather have the younger guy with upside too but I've heard no reports of us being linked to him. I think we could have Drew if we offered him a 3 year 33 million where as Diaz is gonna have his pick of where to play.

  25. #200
    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    Shouldn't Drew get credit for the 143, 147, 128, 147 prior to the ankle injury that cost him half of 2011 and 2012?
    Sure he gets credit for those full seasons. He signed a big 1-yr contract prior to last season. But going forward, can you honestly project Drew for 143, 147, 128 games in the next three years?

    Also, I briefly looked up middle infield combos. Not necessarily to prove a specific point but to get a broad idea of whether or not the most successful teams in any given season, if they have middle infield stability day-in day-out.

    Team leaders, Games started at SS/2B, per season:




    Twins
    AL Champ
    2000
    Guzman/Canizaro148/85
    Jeter/Knoblauch148/82
    2001
    Guzman/Rivas115/148
    Jeter/Soriano150/156
    2002
    Guzman/Rivas143/91
    Eckstein/Kennedy146/123
    2003
    Guzman/Rivas137/131
    Jeter/Soriano118/154
    2004
    Guzman/Rivas143/95
    Bellhorn/O.Cabrera118/57
    2005
    Castro/Punto66/63
    Uribe/Iguchi143/129
    2006
    Bartlett/Castillo99/142
    Guillen/Polanco144/107
    2007
    Bartlett/Castillo135/85
    Lugo/Pedroia139/132
    2008
    Punto/Casilla60/94
    Bartlett/Iwamura122/151
    2009
    O.Cabrera/Casilla57/64
    Jeter/Cano147/158
    2010
    Hardy/Hudson95/123
    Andrus/Kinsler144/102
    2011
    Nishioka/Casilla59/53
    Andrus/Kinsler142/144
    2012
    Dozier/Casilla81/83
    Peralta/Infante145/59
    2013
    Florimon/Dozier127/141
    Drew/Pedroia122/159



    With Drew, a lot of us get the sense that he's an injury waiting to happen and then we go back on the short stop merry-go-round and back to Florimon anyway.

  26. This user likes Hosken Bombo Disco's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    Reider (01-09-2014)

Page 10 of 12 FirstFirst ... 89101112 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.