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Thread: Article: Jonathan Mayo on Minnesota Twins Prospects - Part 3

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    Article: Jonathan Mayo on Minnesota Twins Prospects - Part 3


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    Trea Turner looks to stay at shortstop. I would be shocked if the Twins passed on him. Having trouble remembering the last top ten college middle infielder to succeed, though (or to even be top ten drafted).

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    Senior Member All-Star Badsmerf's Avatar
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    Tulo was a college SS drafted in the top 10.
    Do or do not. There is no try.

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    They’ve always been looking at the best available player. A lot of teams say that, but that’s how the Twins actually do it.
    LOVE this line.

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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinstalker View Post
    Trea Turner looks to stay at shortstop. I would be shocked if the Twins passed on him. Having trouble remembering the last top ten college middle infielder to succeed, though (or to even be top ten drafted).
    Here is a list that I find shocking. All the college position players the Twins drafted in the top 10 rounds from 1999 on, excluding the last 2 years, because it is too early to tell:

    Levi Michael, Tyler Grimes, Adam Bryant, Derek McCallum, Nick Lockwood, Tyler Ladendorf, Brian Dinkelman, Steven Tolleson, Matt Scanlon, Tagg Bozied, Kelley Gulledge, Doug Deeds, Johnny Woodard, Caleb Moore, Eric Lis, Matt Betsill , Whitney Robbins, Garrett Olson, Jeff Christy, Danny Lehmann, Nick Romero, Jeff Lanning, Mike Gonzales, Evan Bigley, Tobias Streich, Blake Dean, Lance Ray

    and

    Chris Herrmann, Brian Dozier (the jury is still out with those 2)

    I just don't see it happening.
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    Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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    It's early. I'll say it again, it's early. Baseball America's and MLB.com's "top 100" lists change a lot as players get another year in front of scouts.

    But, at this point...if the draft was today. Carlos Rodon is #1...then who knows. I'm not a big fan of Hoffman or Beede yet. Still have control/command issues of the pitches they have, much less to develop another one, as needed for MLB.

    I like Trea Turner. I also like Aaron Nola (LSU) pitcher and Sean Newcomb (LHP) from Hartford. Then I'd look at Kyle Schwarber (C/1B) of Indiana.

    The Twins drafted Dustin DeMuth (8th RD) last year out of Indiana, curious if they'd try to go after him again, although, likely at a higher pick this year.

    From the high school scene, I'm very curious about how Tyler Kolek (Texas), Touki Toussant (FL), Michael Gettys (GA), and Braxton Davidson (NC) will develop.

    Gettys, is another GA OF athletic type in the mold of Buxton. Meadows, and Frazier.

    Nola, to me is the closest to MLB, could easily pull a "Wacha" in my mind. Or Ben McDonald or Dylan Bundy and be in the pros by the end of 2014 or by midseason 2015 if the team wants him on the big club. IMO< he's very likely to hit his ceiling, and equally as likely to land at "Brad Radke" level.

    If I had to draft today, I'd hope for Nola, Newcomb, Turner, or Kolek. And probably in that order.

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    Buxton and Sano both at New Britain would be pretty cool

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    Regarding thrylos's list above: if you excluded the first ten 1st round picks each year, every single team's list of position players drafted through ten rounds of the draft from 1999 through 2011 would look pretty much identically "shocking". Not sure what the list tells us. Are position players in general are a poor gamble in the first ten rounds? Are position players that much more of a gamble than pitchers? Are the Twins especially inept at picking position players? To buy that argument, I'd have to see better support than a list in a vacuum like thrylos posted here containing no comparative info. To argue honestly in support of the last theory, you'd have to factor in and account for advantages associated with a team's draft order. A very small percentage of players drafted after the second round, by ANY team, ever see the big leagues, right? But 70% of picks 1-10 make it, 50% of picks 11-20 make it, and only 25% of picks 20-31 make it, according to the last analysis I know many of us read. (I think, by a BP contributor). The Twins had zero 1-10 first round selections over this span, and maybe a couple in the 11-20 range, right?

    BTW, there may be some names missing from the list. Mauer for instance?

  9. This user likes birdwatcher's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    twinsfan34 (01-14-2014)

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    My bad, just clicked that the list is restricted to college prospects only. Still am not sure what we can garner from it, as no one was of the Trea Turner quality for sure.

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    Birdwatcher,

    Good to add context. Some things may sound 'bad' but in context aren't so bad, the guy who only gets it 'right' 3 out of 10 times doesn't sound so good, unless you say he's a MLB hitter.

    I tend to be a little more scrupulous when it comes to college hitters. There's a lot more statistics available and games to go off of.

    If a major college hitter (position player) can't absolutely rake it, .380 avg, or mash it, 14<x AB/HR ratio, and have a at least 1.2 BB/SO ratio, I wouldn't draft him in the top 10 rounds - unless I'd have multiple scouts telling me, "this guy can hit MLB pitching", I'd try my go at pitching or high school players.

    The Levi Michael's, Tyler Grimes', Adam Bryant's, Lance Ray's, Tobias Streich's, Nick Romero's, Whit Robbins', Garrett Olson's, and the Steven Tolleson's of the world, I feel, can be avoided. That is, sure, take a flyer on these guys after round 10.

    **I do need to try to find some players who don't meet my criteria, who did well.

    Brian Dozier, had a very low K rate, met the 1.2 BB/K rate...although didn't quite rake it , hit .355. He's just outside the cut. Ironically, it's his power that's shown in MLB.

    Adam Bret Walker, wouldn't make the cut. Power was 15.7 AB/HR, hit .359 though, and his BB/K rate was near .5-ish.

    Nate Roberts is just outside the cut, although, his stats are not at a major college.
    1.09 BB/K, .372 avg, 17.14 AB/HR. He could be a hitter in MLB. Led the AFL in hitting in 2012, was injured in 2013.

    I haven't accumulated enough data points to optimize what the best combo of those 3 would be just yet.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Joe A. Preusser's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tibs View Post
    Buxton and Sano both at New Britain would be pretty cool
    I had this same exact thought. How cool is it that 2 guys out of 9 can wins a bunch of games ALL BY THEMSELVES.

    If they stay half the year in AA the Rock Cats will have the best record in the league.

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    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Steve Tolleson has had a few big league stints... I'd take that from anyone outside the first round. It's rare.

    A lot of those guys (Ray, Robbins, Bryant, etc.) missed time due to injury. Hard to know what would happen/will happen/could happen with health. Jury is still out on Nate Roberts.

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    As far as shortstops go, the Twins basically have NEVER drafted and signed a player who stuck at that position in the majors for any length of time. They have drafted shortstops who have succeeded at other positions (i.e. Cuddyer and Knoblauch). But in the full history of the draft the top four shortstops the Twins have drafted in terms of games played at shortstop for the Twins are Pat Meares (737), Danny Thompson (468), Brian Dozier (83) and Trevor Plouffe (55). Virtually all other starting shortstops came via trade or before the draft existed (Zoilo Versalles).

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScottyB View Post
    As far as shortstops go, the Twins basically have NEVER drafted and signed a player who stuck at that position in the majors for any length of time. They have drafted shortstops who have succeeded at other positions (i.e. Cuddyer and Knoblauch). But in the full history of the draft the top four shortstops the Twins have drafted in terms of games played at shortstop for the Twins are Pat Meares (737), Danny Thompson (468), Brian Dozier (83) and Trevor Plouffe (55). Virtually all other starting shortstops came via trade or before the draft existed (Zoilo Versalles).
    That is one dead sexy list of shortstops. Combine them into one and you'd have a player slightly better than Mario Mendoza.

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    Senior Member Triple-A
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    And speaking of Mendoza isn't it quite possible that Florimon is a clone of Mario's? With the bat to a tee I am thinking.

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