Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 23

Thread: Article: Jonathan Mayo on Minnesota Twins Prospects - Pt 1

  1. #1

    Article: Jonathan Mayo on Minnesota Twins Prospects - Pt 1


  2. #2
    Senior Member MVP
    Posts
    5,121
    Like
    370
    Liked 329 Times in 218 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by Christopher Fee View Post
    Iím from Pittsburgh, so I actually like Alex Presley a little bit. I think heís a very good fourth outfielder, but I donít think you want him playing centerfield every day.
    I hope that Ryan has a viable Plan C for CF this year. Jonathan Mayo seems to value Presley's potential contribution to the 2014 Twins more realistically than the GM apparently does. He's right, while AP is a nice 4th OFer, the Twins appear to be coming up short yet again in CF to open the season. Based on how the season ended for Hicks, you gotta think he's going to have to spend 1-3 months in Roc. to prove himself.

  3. #3
    Senior Member All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
    Posts
    1,759
    Like
    136
    Liked 109 Times in 66 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Jonathan Mayo seems to value Presley's potential contribution to the 2014 Twins more realistically than the GM apparently does.
    I'm pretty sure TR and the FO realizes what they have in Presley, a stop gap.

  4. #4
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
    Posts
    2,295
    Like
    1
    Liked 112 Times in 62 Posts
    Blog Entries
    231
    It's nice to see a national analyst remind us that half a year of struggles doesn't sink Gibson or Hicks. In both cases, they've faced a double-whammy:
    1. They didn't experience immediate success and
    2. They suddenly look squeezed at their position.

    I don't think #1 should surprise anyone too much. First of all, lots of guys struggle in their first half year. And in both cases, they faced significant challenges beyond that of players making their MLB debuts: Hicks skipped AAA while Gibson was working his way back from Tommy John and approaching (exceeding) an innings limit.

    #2 is bad luck for them. I'm not worried about Presley limiting Hicks playing time in CF; Presley isn't going to ever have the firepower to hold off Hicks if he starts tearing up AAA. I'm more worried about Hicks finding his way into the rotation, just because this organization is now so worried about it's rotation that you can see them hanging onto guys for too long, especially if they're paying them mutli-year deals.

  5. This user likes John Bonnes's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    TheLeviathan (01-07-2014)

  6. #5
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    4,609
    Like
    512
    Liked 214 Times in 147 Posts
    You clearly mean Gibson, and I agree.....KC or Pelfrey blocking Gibson, ugh.

    As for Hicks, his struggles were historically bad. I believe Fangraphs looked and could find zero players that were that bad their first month that ever turned out good, but that might have been an offhand remark in a chat...... The bigger issue for me last year was that his defense looked a lot less impressive than we had been led to believe. That should not have been effected by being in MN at all.
    Lighten up Francis....

  7. #6
    Senior Member Double-A zenser's Avatar
    Posts
    149
    Like
    6
    Liked 7 Times in 7 Posts
    If Sano is lighting up AA and there is a need at third? I think you could see him.
    I was thinking he would start in AAA. Would anyone else be shocked if he started the season in AA?

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    The bigger issue for me last year was that his defense looked a lot less impressive than we had been led to believe. That should not have been effected by being in MN at all.
    I agree he had a somewhat rough adjustment his first couple weeks last year but then he started taking better routes to balls and his D improved significantly. Hicks also showed off a cannon for an arm, which could be better than advertised. If Hicks can hit .250 with the plate discipline he displayed in the minors, combined with a little pop and some solid baserunning and SB totals he would be a perennial starting OF for us. The jury is still out if he can do that, however.

  9. #8
    Senior Member Triple-A amjgt's Avatar
    Posts
    333
    Like
    13
    Liked 34 Times in 24 Posts
    "CF – I could probably think of three."

    "I could probably think of four" might have gotten a more interesting response.

  10. #9
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,074
    Like
    97
    Liked 341 Times in 194 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    #2 is bad luck for them. I'm not worried about Presley limiting Hicks playing time in CF; Presley isn't going to ever have the firepower to hold off Hicks if he starts tearing up AAA. I'm more worried about Hicks finding his way into the rotation, just because this organization is now so worried about it's rotation that you can see them hanging onto guys for too long, especially if they're paying them mutli-year deals.
    Totally agree. I worry that Gibson is going to have a MUCH harder time getting back into the rotation than Hicks will into the lineup. If anything, it should be the other way around.

  11. #10
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
    Posts
    1,093
    Like
    15
    Liked 122 Times in 61 Posts
    Blog Entries
    77
    Guess I'm not that worried about Gibson being potentially blocked. People act like all a MLB team needs is 5 starting pitchers every year. How often do the Twins not need at least 8 or 9 to spend significant time in the rotation at some point?

    Gibson will get his chances. If he does really well, he'll stay, regardless of what Correia, Pelfrey, et al, do. If Gibson doesn't pitch well enough to clearly put himself above those guys in the pecking order at some point this season, then that says a lot.

    At some point, you have to stop talking about a guy's potential and start talking about his actual performance. Might not be there yet on Gibson, but I would think a year from now we'll be getting close to that point.
    I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at Knuckleballsblog.com while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com.

    ~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~

  12. #11
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
    Posts
    5,922
    Like
    41
    Liked 202 Times in 106 Posts
    Blog Entries
    515
    Quote Originally Posted by zenser View Post
    I was thinking he would start in AAA. Would anyone else be shocked if he started the season in AA?
    I assume he will start back at AA.

  13. #12
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,074
    Like
    97
    Liked 341 Times in 194 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Crikket View Post
    At some point, you have to stop talking about a guy's potential and start talking about his actual performance. Might not be there yet on Gibson, but I would think a year from now we'll be getting close to that point.
    Righ, but as Mayo points out he's also 26. So we need to see that actual performance in the big leagues, not AAA. Hence the blocking problem.

  14. #13
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
    Posts
    1,093
    Like
    15
    Liked 122 Times in 61 Posts
    Blog Entries
    77
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Righ, but as Mayo points out he's also 26. So we need to see that actual performance in the big leagues, not AAA. Hence the blocking problem.
    I agree and, as I wrote, I see no reason why he wouldn't get big league starts this year to prove himself, with or without Correia and Pelfrey around. To think that, because the Twins have 4 veteran SPs now, only 1 other SP will get any opportunities the whole season is just not very reasonable. Will he get 30 starts at the MLB level? Probably not. But I would expect him to get enough to sink or swim.
    I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at Knuckleballsblog.com while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com.

    ~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~

  15. These 2 users like Jim Crikket's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    Monkeypaws (01-07-2014), PseudoSABR (01-07-2014)

  16. #14
    Banned Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    715
    Like
    82
    Liked 40 Times in 29 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Crikket View Post
    I agree and, as I wrote, I see no reason why he wouldn't get big league starts this year to prove himself, with or without Correia and Pelfrey around. To think that, because the Twins have 4 veteran SPs now, only 1 other SP will get any opportunities the whole season is just not very reasonable. Will he get 30 starts at the MLB level? Probably not. But I would expect him to get enough to sink or swim.
    I agree. I would be very surprised if it's not an organizational priority to position Gibson and Meyer to be penciled into the rotation come opening day 2015. They probably are not all that concerned about when it happens, as long as it does.

  17. #15
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,074
    Like
    97
    Liked 341 Times in 194 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Crikket View Post
    I agree and, as I wrote, I see no reason why he wouldn't get big league starts this year to prove himself, with or without Correia and Pelfrey around. To think that, because the Twins have 4 veteran SPs now, only 1 other SP will get any opportunities the whole season is just not very reasonable. Will he get 30 starts at the MLB level? Probably not. But I would expect him to get enough to sink or swim.
    I hope so, my issue isn't that he reaches a certain number of starts, but that he gets an extended number of them. Getting 5 here and 5 there to a total of 15 isn't the same as getting 15 in a row IMO.

    We've seen too much of that chunked opportunities lately for my liking.

  18. #16
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
    Posts
    1,093
    Like
    15
    Liked 122 Times in 61 Posts
    Blog Entries
    77
    Gibson isn't an Indy ball signing, a relatively cheap international signing or even a low draft pick. The Twins have invested a fair amount of money in him and I think he'll get opportunities. But even if it's "chunks" of 5 starts here and there, it's up to him to do something with those opportunities. That's a month of starts. If you stink the place up with a month of starts, it's not unreasonable to expect the organization to plug someone else in to your spot.
    I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at Knuckleballsblog.com while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com.

    ~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~

  19. #17
    Just an observation regarding the Twins starting rotation.

    Nolasco - Signed 4 years
    Hughes - Signed 3 years
    Pelfrey - Signed 2 years
    Corriea - 1 year

    This means there is a 5th slot open to be won this year. With Gibson on year two after TJ I expect him to be better (Gibson go out and get that please!) and if Alex Meyer is lighting it up early on look for one of Corriea/Pelfrey to be moved out of the way (1 year 5 million isn't much for a psuedo reliable #4 pitcher trade Corriea mid season and two slots are open.)

    2015 rotation then is something like this (placed in alpha order not necessarily rotation sequence):

    -Gibson
    -Hughes
    -Meyer
    -Nolasco
    -Pelfrey

  20. This user likes abnormal_1's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    howieramone (01-07-2014)

  21. #18
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,074
    Like
    97
    Liked 341 Times in 194 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Crikket View Post
    Gibson isn't an Indy ball signing, a relatively cheap international signing or even a low draft pick. The Twins have invested a fair amount of money in him and I think he'll get opportunities. But even if it's "chunks" of 5 starts here and there, it's up to him to do something with those opportunities. That's a month of starts. If you stink the place up with a month of starts, it's not unreasonable to expect the organization to plug someone else in to your spot.
    I disagree. When you bounce him back and forth constantly you aren't giving him the best opportunity. Usually what you do is you create more questions than you answered. (see: Parmelee)

    As you said, they've invested a lot in him, they should also invest the most ideal opportunity into him as well. Not bounce him around during non-contending seasons and still have unanswered questions.

  22. #19
    Banned Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    715
    Like
    82
    Liked 40 Times in 29 Posts
    Comparing Gibson to Parmelee is comparing apples to oranges. If you're questioning the overall consistency of how Twins handle players that's the subject of a different thread IMO.

    With Deduno coming back from shoulder surgery and unlikely being ready on time, there is no reason to believe Gibson won't will be given every opportunity to win to the 5th spot, as it should be.
    Last edited by howieramone; 01-07-2014 at 04:04 PM.

  23. #20
    [QUOTE=Jim Crikket;189605]Gibson will get his chances. If he does really well, he'll stay, regardless of what Correia, Pelfrey, et al, do. If Gibson doesn't pitch well enough to clearly put himself above those guys in the pecking order at some point this season, then that says a lot.


    I agree. Gibson will be 26 all season, and needs to out-perform Correia, Pelfrey and the rest of the fray. If he can't break into a mediocre/bad rotation at age 26, he may never be a pitcher that can contribute to a winning team.

    I expect him to come back healthy, another year removed from TJ. He will have his opportunities to win a spot in the rotation.

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.