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Thread: Fair or not fair?

  1. #1
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    Fair or not fair?

    Here are Stephen Drew's numbers for 2013 (including post-season):
    G-140 PA-558 AB-496 R-61 H-118 2B-29 3B-9 HR-14 RBI-71 OBP-.310 SLG-.415 BB-56 K-143 Pct.-.238 OPS-.725 OPS+-96

    This includes Drew's pretty dreadful post-season and lowers his numbers, while still providing a sample for a full season (140 games).

    Those numbers for a single season would put Drew still as an above-average SS, but nothing special. His OPS would fit between Brian Dozier and AJ Pierzynski. Drew's age, going from a great lineup in a very good offensive home park, and career mediocrity all tell me to stay away from him. He is a good defender, but IMHO, no better than that. Getting Drew for eight figures for multiple years and surrendering a high second round draft choice just doesn't make sense to me. The Twins can get better value spending on other positions. I think the best course to take is to locate someone in another system and trade for him.

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  3. #2
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    There's been a lot of discussion of Drew on the Pedro Florimon thread. I'll post this in response to the pro-Drew comments there: Adding Drew would be at best adding another 2013 Brian Dozier, certainly an improvement but not worth in excess of $10M for multiple years. Drew also brings little speed to the table on the bases. I'll take Florimon at minimum wage and add a hitter like Morales for a second round choice or add Garza and trade Correia, both better alternatives than adding Stephen Drew.

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Drew's OPS+ in 2013 was 111. I'm having a hard time figuring out how a couple dozen postseason ABs lowered that number by 15.

    Also, in 2013 Drew was worth a full two wins over Florimon according to fWAR. I understand being hesitant about him but he's a pretty massive upgrade over Florimon if healthy. The question is whether you trust him to stay healthy.

  5. #4
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    Here is my take on Stephen Drew. He would clearly be an upgrade at shortstop over Floriman. I am not so sure that he is the best fit at this time for the Twins however. First off, I am not sure he is worth ten million a year more then Floriman. Second, I am not sold on giving up a 43rd overall pick for him. There are decent players still picked in the top 50. The twins track record is a little spotty in the second round but (somebody help me out here) there are still good players being taken then. Third, why not let drew sign with somebody else? Are the twins really just a shortstop away from making a run at the playoffs? I don't think so. And if Drew signs somewhere else, for a 3 or 4 yr contract, what would stop us from trading for him later if it came to that? In that case, we might get him for less then a second rd pick.

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  7. #5
    I can't believe the players union agreed to this draft pick compensation garbage. Its a ridiculous concept.

  8. #6
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marta Shearing View Post
    I can't believe the players union agreed to this draft pick compensation garbage. Its a ridiculous concept.
    I do and I don't agree. Basically, the problem is that larger market teams are pilfering good players from the smaller market teams making it difficult to compete.

    The problem as I see it is that it sucks for guys like Drew who probably aren't worth the comp pick attached to them.

  9. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Marta Shearing View Post
    I can't believe the players union agreed to this draft pick compensation garbage. Its a ridiculous concept.
    I think they just need to adjust the dollar amount a little. It's better than the old system where teams would trade for players just to get the compensation pick when they left for free agency. Without a salary cap you just have to do something to help out the smaller markets. The problem is every team tries to subvert every system they put in place.

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    I just don't like what Drew costs. However, it's probably what you have to pay any shortstop who can hit the ball. I wish we would have kept JJ Hardy!
    I couldn't be a player because of bad eyesight, so I decided to be an umpire instead.

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  12. #9
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    Better to pocket the money? Not sure what that does, other than not help the team be better.
    Lighten up Francis....

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  14. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    I do and I don't agree. Basically, the problem is that larger market teams are pilfering good players from the smaller market teams making it difficult to compete.

    The problem as I see it is that it sucks for guys like Drew who probably aren't worth the comp pick attached to them.
    No system is perfect. The draft pick compensation rules that just went into place removed draft pick compensation for all but the highest paid players. I don't think we should be shedding any tears for the guys making north of $14M/yr.

    To remove them completely would give the largest market teams an even bigger advantage. The TV contracts are creating an even larger separation in revenue so it is going to get even harder for small and mid market teams to retain their best players. Is this really good for the game?

    The Dodgers new deal is $250M+. I think the Angles deal is around $140 and the Mariners just executed a deal for $115/yr. The Mets have a deal that increases every year and the Phillies just signed a $100M/yr deal. The Twins get $29M. If anything, the draft pick compensation should be more agressive IMO. The revenue differential used to be just with the Yankees and Boston. That has changed substantially. That means alot more dollars out there to take away top players from teams outside the top 10 in revenue.

  15. #11
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    Re-visiting the beginning of the off season, after best guesses for arbitration/settlement numbers the Twins should have had $23-25M to work with in money saved from last year's payroll. We'll go on the high side for argument sake. Now add in 52% of additional $25M new TV money and you get another $13M added for a total of $38M to work with.

    Now you can argue the new $25M is "free" money and the Twins could/should just spend it all. And I do believe it is entirely possible the will exceed the normal 52% rule to make the team better. But for the moment, let's work within the normal budget parameters of the Twins as we know it.

    Adding Kubel, speculating he rebounds and makes it, and the trade of Doumit, is virtually a wash. So again, $38M to work with initially. Minus Nolasco, Hughes and Pelfrey signings takes us down to about $12M still available for a role player or two, and possibly one more "major" signing of sorts. This allows you to sign Drew. You lose a little defense compared to Floriman/Escobar but do gain better offense.

    But does signing Drew really make the Twins that much better? As someone pointed out, are we a decent offensive SS away from making a move? Or are we better off taking that money, adding a few $M more and signing Garza, a proven, quality #2, who instantly becomes out #1 SP, and occasionally pitches like it too. This bumps everyone else in the rotation down a notch, deepens the overall talent level of the rotation, gives us an even higher percentage chance of being in the game and winning daily.

    It follows the Twins would then have the option of trading Correia immediately, or during SP for ________________? (prospect of some sort undoubtedly) Or he might be packaged for a better return. Or part of a multi team trade that could net a young SS. Or replenish a player used in such a deal from our system. But you have options, and decent veteran SP is almost always tradeable, especially in this case where the player is cost effective and not tied to a long term investment. Taking Correia's contract off the books helps pay for Garza, and the Twins are still pretty much right on budget. This allows them to take on additional contracts later in the year, or next when Willingham comes off the books.

    As stated earlier, I would be ecstatic if the Twins signed both players. But being realistic, to do so would require a complete investment of all available finances, the entire $25M plus $25M. This leaves very little financial wiggle room next season for further improvements/investments on the team.

    So while I like the idea of adding Drew, adding player B, Garza, helps the club to a higher degree. You don't lose a high draft choice as compensation. You still have some decent options at SS and the bottom of the order. And you have financial flexibility for this season and next. And if ou want to upgrade the SS position, and don't feel Santana is the guy, or isn't ready, work a trade for a younger player with upside you can have under control longer.

  16. #12
    Stephen Drew > Pedro Florimon.

    But, this doesn't mean you hand over 12 million a year + a 2nd round pick.

    Pedro Florimon + 12 million + 2nd round Pick > Stephen Drew

    If you want to upgrade SS, I think you have to do it through a trade or wait until the right player comes along in FA.

    It seems there is a lot of chatter about how we can improve our team right now for this season. The best way to improve right now would be to...

    Sign Matt Garza for 3 years 50 Million.
    Trade Glen Perkins, Pedro Florimon and Casey Fein for JJ Hardy, Eduardo Rodriguez(LHP) and Michael Ohlman(C).
    Sign Grant Balfour 1 year 9 million. (trade him in July promote Tonkin to CL)
    Trade Kevin Correia, JO Berrios and Kennys Vargas for Chris Denorfia (OF), Dale Thayer(RP) and Jace Peterson(SS)

    Lots of work to do, and if anyone strongly disagrees with the value of trades, I'm not a GM, so throw in some minor players either direction to even things out. These trades give us 3 players that are better than the 4 players we are giving up, sans Perkins. We replace the 2 strong bullpen arms we are giving up, improve at SS and our outfield defense. We also add a potential C, SS and LH-SP. I believe we would be selling Berrios at a good time.

    -April 2014-
    Starting Lineup: (44.5 Million)
    2B- Brian Dozier (850K)
    1B- Joe Mauer (23 million)
    DH- Josh Willingham (7 million)
    RF- Oswaldo Arcia (450k)
    SS- JJ Hardy (7 million)
    LF- Jason Kubel (2.5 million)
    3B- Trevor Plouffe (750k)
    C- Josmil Pinto (400k)
    CF- Chris Denorfia (2.25 million)

    (4) Bench: (6.3 Million)
    Kurt Suzuki (3 million)
    Eddie Escobar (600k)
    Alex Presley (400k)
    Chris Parmelee (700k)

    Rotation: (43.5 million)
    Matt Garza (16.75 million)
    Ricky Nolasco (12 million)
    Phil Hughes (8 million)
    Mike Pelfrey (6 million)
    Scott Diamond (750 k)

    Bullpen: (16 million)
    Grant Balfour(9 million) *Trade at deadline for nice prospect if possible.
    Jared Burton (3.5 million)
    Dale Thayer (600k)
    Brian Duensing (1 million)
    Anthony Swarzak (700k),
    Vance Worley (600k)
    Caleb Thielbar (400k)

    Overall Payroll: Right around 110 million.

    June-July-August-September 2014 or May, June 2015 (each guy is going to be ready in their own time)
    We will eventually look like this.

    SP:
    Garza
    Nolasco
    Hughes
    Meyer
    Gibson
    *Pelfrey either traded or bullpen or just being "Blackburn'd"

    Pen:
    Tonkin
    Thayer
    Duensing
    Worley
    Thielbar
    Swarzak
    May(could be short or long term in pen)

    Lineup:
    CF- Byron Buxton
    1B- Joe Mauer
    3B- Miguel Sano
    DH- Oswaldo Arcia
    SS- JJ Hardy (extended or at worst offered qualifying 1 year offer)
    C- Josmil Pinto
    2B- Brian Dozier
    LF- Chris Denorfia ( 2 year extension - til age 36 season)
    RF- Aaron Hicks

    Bench: Alex Presley, Eric Fryer, Trevor Plouffe, Eddie Escobar

    *** Willingham either traded or not re-signed, Kubel not re-signed, Burton let go, Diamond let go.

    If this pitching staff were to meet expecations, we would have a very nice ball club. If our young offense meets expactions, we would have a championship caliber club. Other than 3B and C Defense, (both are unknowns) our defense would be extremely strong. Great range in OF + strong Defense up the middle.

    If my math is correct, we would be under 90 million in payroll for 2015 after losing Willingham's 7 million, Balfour's 9 million, Kubel's 2.5 million, Suzuki's 3 million, possibly Pelfrey's 6 million, Burton's ~3 million and add in general raises plus a pay raise for Hardy and Denorfia.

    It leaves plenty of money to either fill holes, or sign a couple young guys(if they prove it) to a contract to buy out some years of FA ala Evan Longoria.

    All of this plus we still would have guys like Rosario, Kepler, Ohlman, Peterson, Rodriguez, Stewart, (2014 high 1st rounder), Polanco, Santana, Turner still developing in the minors and getting closer. Only guys that to extend that are close to FA would be Dozier and Plouffe(not happening unless he starts to hit more as UTL guy).

    Sorry for the long post that is somewhat off-topic and on the wrong thread, but is something that would help our organization out, even though it won't happen.

    Have a nice ice-cold week folks!

  17. #13
    Senior Member Double-A Jdosen's Avatar
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    I think I would be indifferent about a Drew signing. With no context, I don't really view Drew as a guy I would pursue very competitively, but considering SS is one of the only positions this team has that there is really no long-term plan, it would make sense to sign a FA SS to a multi-year deal.

    Drew as a player is one who I'm not sure I trust be a player of value in relation to the salary he will command going forward. I certainly don't like his OBP numbers, as he has a career .329 OBP which was aided by one season of .352 in 2009. Neither Steamer nor Oliver, Fangraphs' two projection systems readily available on the player pages, really like him very much next year. On top of that, he will be 31 on Opening Day, certainly getting close to if not entering the downside of his aging curve.

    That being said, if the Twins can get him for a bargain deal because there isn't much of a market fro him, I would do that in a heartbeat. If we can get him for a 2 year commitment which would be a surprising bargain, do it. But I don't see that happening--I think he will end up getting a 3/24 or something close to that, and paying Drew for his 20s and getting 3-4 years of his 30s frightens me a little bit.
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  18. #14
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DocBauer View Post
    Re-visiting the beginning of the off season, after best guesses for arbitration/settlement numbers the Twins should have had $23-25M to work with in money saved from last year's payroll. We'll go on the high side for argument sake. Now add in 52% of additional $25M new TV money and you get another $13M added for a total of $38M to work with.
    Close, but you got more. Last season payroll was below the 52% of revenue that Pohald and St Peter have been indicating that is the benchmark for spending for player payroll.
    Last season their total revenue was $215 million. Add $25 from this TV $ and you got $240. 52% of that is $125 million. The Twins are sitting around $75 million, so they got $50 million or so to play with right now. They can sign Tanaka and have another $30 million to play so they can get Drew and Cruz if they wanted to.

    They can. Should they? I don't know. I don't see Drew as the guy who would put them over the top in 2014. Frankly, I'd rather see them max their international $ and sign top international talent and keep some of that $ to extend Sano and/or Buxton in a Longoria-type of deal.

    As far as 2015 goes, at least Correia and Willingham go off the books ($15 M or so), so there is flexibility.
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    Quote Originally Posted by stringer bell View Post
    Here are Stephen Drew's numbers for 2013 (including post-season):
    G-140 PA-558 AB-496 R-61 H-118 2B-29 3B-9 HR-14 RBI-71 OBP-.310 SLG-.415 BB-56 K-143 Pct.-.238 OPS-.725 OPS+-96

    This includes Drew's pretty dreadful post-season and lowers his numbers, while still providing a sample for a full season (140 games).

    His OPS would fit between Brian Dozier and AJ Pierzynski.
    If your question is fair or unfair. Then this post is completely unfair.

    You're merging regular season and post season plate appeareances for Drew and then comparing him to other players who only accumulated regular season PA. There is a completely different level of competition in the post season. The starting pitchers he faced: Price, Cobb, Archer, Verlander, Scherzer(twice), Sanchez(twice), Fister, Wainwright(twice), Wacha(twice). That's not including how bullpens are used differently. Other than Ortiz and Ellsbury, every single Boston player had a significant dip in offense in the post season.

    Those numbers for a single season would put Drew still as an above-average SS, but nothing special.
    Nothing special? Even a 96 OPS+ is 12% above the average shortstop. That's better than Morales compared to the average DH.

    in a very good offensive home park
    Why are you using OPS+ and mentioning his home ballpark? OPS+ is park adjusted.

    and career mediocrity
    If career mediocrity is above average offense with above average defense, then there aren't many mediocre shortstops in this league.

  20. #16
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    anyone know what a second round draft pick is worth? For example, I believe I've read that a 2nd rounder in the NHL has about a 25% chance of turning into a player that plays at least 82 games (1 season) in the NHL. Anyone know what the odds of a second round pick in MLB of actually turning into a decent player on the MLB level is?

  21. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by stringer bell View Post
    Adding Drew would be at best adding another 2013 Brian Dozier
    Only five full time shortstops hit better than Dozier last year. One of them being Drew.

    Drew also brings little speed to the table on the bases. I'll take Florimon at minimum wage and add a hitter like Morales for a second round choice
    Morales has no positional value and is likely the worst base runner in baseball.

    2013 League Average DH wRC+: 110
    Morales 2013 wRC+: 116

    2013 League Average SS wRC+: 85
    Drew 2013 wRC+: 109

  22. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by jm3319 View Post
    anyone know what a second round draft pick is worth? For example, I believe I've read that a 2nd rounder in the NHL has about a 25% chance of turning into a player that plays at least 82 games (1 season) in the NHL. Anyone know what the odds of a second round pick in MLB of actually turning into a decent player on the MLB level is?
    Probably similar.

    It is not just a pick. It is also cap money. With the money, the Twins have more flexibility. They can offer their first rounder above slot money or the can go the other direction and try to get a guy that fell out of the first round and go under slot with pick 1. Without that pick, any flexibility is lost.

    If it is clear that Drew would be a solid player at SS through 2016, the pick shouldn't matter. Given his injured past and aging curve defensively at SS, I don't think it would be a wise move beyond a one year deal. Pick or not. At one year, they can sign and trade and get a better prospect than a second round pick. If Drew was OK with one year, he would have taken the qualifying offer.

  23. #19
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    I'm tired of the whining about how unfair the compensation system is for some players. If it's so unfair, why have NONE of the players who've been made Qualifying Offers accepted? As long as agents are able to convince ALL of their affected clients that they'll get better offers than the $14 mil one year Qualifying Offers, then the process must not be TOO harmful to anyone.

    Until a few players get really burned by that decision, nobody will accept the QAs. The agents are bitching because it makes their jobs harder and they risk having some clients lose a bit of money by following their advice. Boo- f'ing-hoo.
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  25. #20
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    I am beginning to wonder if the Twins would be better off signing Drew and foregoing the draft pick. If we sign Garza or Arroyo we should absolutely consider it as we are a lot closer to being competitive with him. Though there are a few good SS on the market next year.

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