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Thread: Twins "kicking the tires" on Garza

  1. #81
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Monkeypaws's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    we know they aren't going to win now? We know it is because of these contracts, and not because they made a bunch of other bad decisions?

    'tis better to have spent and lost, than not to have spent at all......
    fify

  2. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by brvama View Post
    I totally concur with Kwak on this. Somehow many of us become enamored with the players we have. That is not a bad thing until it gets in the way of making moves to improve the current team. After rational judgement of what is out there and what the Twins have, there is one question that should determine if a FA signing or trade be made -- Does the player(s) improve what we already have. If so, you get it done.

    I believe some of us have gotten away from that premise
    .
    Excellent 2nd post, brvama. We have multi-paged threads-worth of teeth-gnashing over "losing" the likes of Joe Benson and Alex Burnett. I'm firmly in the Howard Sinker camp- ie, a turnover of 2 dozen of the Twins 40-man at or below replacement-level rosterees is fully justifiable, by definition, after 3 season of embarrassing futility.

  3. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    You bring up Hunter, which ended up working out for the Angels, but they are a perfect example of having albatross contracts:

    Pujols, Wells, Hamilton are all going to prevent them from winning.
    Wells was a trade (and a bad one), while Pujols and Hamilton cost $125-250 mil each. Don't think these pitchers are getting that money.

    Another Angels contract -- CJ Wilson -- might be the better comp. And it is a lot tougher for those level of deals to be albatrosses. We're talking a modest step up from Nolasco's deal here, not a mega-deal. If Nolasco is really worth 4/49 plus a 5th year vesting option, these guys could very well be worth 5/75.

  4. #84
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Wells was a trade (and a bad one), while Pujols and Hamilton cost $125-250 mil each. Don't think these pitchers are getting that money.

    Another Angels contract -- CJ Wilson -- might be the better comp. And it is a lot tougher for those level of deals to be albatrosses. We're talking a modest step up from Nolasco's deal here, not a mega-deal. If Nolasco is really worth 4/49 plus a 5th year vesting option, these guys could very well be worth 5/75.
    Yeah, I don't think a reasonable 4 year deal would be an albatross at all. I was just pointing out, they certainly do exist.

  5. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldguy10 View Post
    It is mentioned here trade Correia when the time is right. What MLB team really needs Correia anyway and why would they trade for him - simply makes no sense.
    No where on earth does Correia have less value than on this board. The same could have been said for Butera and Doumit. An inning eater for 5.5M is going to be attractive at some point in time.

  6. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Yeah, I don't think a reasonable 4 year deal would be an albatross at all. I was just pointing out, they certainly do exist.
    I am struggling to think of a 5/75 type deal that proved to be any kind of albatross. It just isn't that much money in modern MLB.

  7. #87
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Monkeypaws's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    I am struggling to think of a 5/75 type deal that proved to be any kind of albatross. It just isn't that much money in modern MLB.
    Not an albatross, but you don't want to many guys making 10 million + on your roster that aren't producing. Bad contracts tie up resources better spent elsewhere.

    Not that I think Garza wouldn't give some bang for the buck on those terms.

  8. #88
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Excellent 2nd post, brvama. We have multi-paged threads-worth of teeth-gnashing over "losing" the likes of Joe Benson and Alex Burnett. I'm firmly in the Howard Sinker camp- ie, a turnover of 2 dozen of the Twins 40-man at or below replacement-level rosterees is fully justifiable, by definition, after 3 season of embarrassing futility.
    I think it's a bit simplistic myself. You also have to think about the long term. He could get hurt and you'd use a lot of resources on him for nothing. You also have to manage risks.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  9. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    No where on earth does Correia have less value than on this board. The same could have been said for Butera and Doumit. An inning eater for 5.5M is going to be attractive at some point in time.
    The time might be right during spring training or soon after the season starts, when an obvious or up-and-coming contender suddenly needs a reliable 5th starter. For example, not saying it will happen, but let's say Ryan Vogelsong fails to bounce back for the Giants, the GM who signed Correia originally is still there, and may feel comfortable with a guy who has put up better recent numbers and stays reasonably and reliably healthy at a bargain price.

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  11. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I think it's a bit simplistic myself. You also have to think about the long term. He could get hurt and you'd use a lot of resources on him for nothing. You also have to manage risks.
    Wow. Why ever sign an upper tier player then- they could get hurt? And those who want Garza are thinking in the long-term, one of the best and affordable guys on the market who doesn't cost you a pick, and a chance to lock him up into the longer-term- assembling a rotation for the long-term should be a process and not a single offseason event- that's also managing risk.

    What I hear you saying is we're sure to be successful at mitigating risk by NOT signing better players and keeping a stable-full of below replacement guys? That seems like you prescribe that we remove all risk of ever regaining contender status any time soon.

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  13. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by Monkeypaws View Post
    Not an albatross, but you don't want to many guys making 10 million + on your roster that aren't producing. Bad contracts tie up resources better spent elsewhere.

    Not that I think Garza wouldn't give some bang for the buck on those terms.
    7 straight seasons of <4 ERA pitching. How do you figure he isn't going to be producing? He's actually a really good pitcher but some are trying to suggest that he's just another back end arm on a team full of back end arms.

  14. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    7 straight seasons of <4 ERA pitching. How do you figure he isn't going to be producing? He's actually a really good pitcher but some are trying to suggest that he's just another back end arm on a team full of back end arms.
    Yup. Mind boggling really, the failure to understand the upgrade Garza represents, particularly one of our own that got away once already.

  15. #93
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Wow. Why ever sign an upper tier player then- they could get hurt? And those who want Garza are thinking in the long-term, one of the best and affordable guys on the market who doesn't cost you a pick, and a chance to lock him up into the longer-term- assembling a rotation for the long-term should be a process and not a single offseason event- that's also managing risk.

    What I hear you saying is we're sure to be successful at mitigating risk by NOT signing better players and keeping a stable-full of below replacement guys? That seems like you prescribe that we remove all risk of ever regaining contender status any time soon.
    Don't read into what I'm saying. You praised a guy for saying it's a simple matter of whether he's an upgrade over what we have now or not. All I said is, it's not a simple matter. If it was that simple, I'd be all for it. I'm still for it, but I can understand why the Twins have reservations.

    If the Twins had confidence that he'd stay healthy for the next five years, they'd have signed him by now. But they don't. And they don't want to spend $20 Mil a year for a guy who could be hurt for two of those five years. How likely is it? Likely enough to prevent his being signed by any other team. And perhaps with good reason, considering that he has a screw holding his elbow together and he's a maximum effort pitcher.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  16. #94
    Twins Moderator All-Star twinsnorth49's Avatar
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    I think it's more likely Garza, Jimenez and Santana are waiting for the Tanaka sweepstakes to conclude before committing. It has the chance to set the bar higher for all of them.

  17. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    Don't read into what I'm saying. You praised a guy for saying it's a simple matter of whether he's an upgrade over what we have now or not. All I said is, it's not a simple matter. If it was that simple, I'd be all for it. I'm still for it, but I can understand why the Twins have reservations.

    If the Twins had confidence that he'd stay healthy for the next five years, they'd have signed him by now. But they don't. And they don't want to spend $20 Mil a year for a guy who could be hurt for two of those five years. How likely is it? Likely enough to prevent his being signed by any other team. And perhaps with good reason, considering that he has a screw holding his elbow together and he's a maximum effort pitcher.
    Christy, you said "simplistic", a more loaded term than "simple". I don't think anyone is saying that this is a simple exercise or decision.

    I think we're all aware of his medical history, right now there's a lot of jockeying from both sides trying to ink this deal. Garza's agent would be a fool not to ask for the sky with Tanaka still out there. All along I've preferred overpaying for 3 years with mutual options- in my book, that would be the proper course for risk mitigation.

  18. #96
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Christy, you said "simplistic", a more loaded term than "simple". I don't think anyone is saying that this is a simple exercise or decision.

    I think we're all aware of his medical history, right now there's a lot of jockeying from both sides trying to ink this deal. Garza's agent would be a fool not to ask for the sky with Tanaka still out there. All along I've preferred overpaying for 3 years with mutual options- in my book, that would be the proper course for risk mitigation.
    In that I agree with you. And it appears to be the Twins' preferred course as well. But Garza wants a longer-term deal. I hope he relents.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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  20. #97
    Senior Member Triple-A goulik's Avatar
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    At the beginning of the post season it was my belief that the Twins would have to grab a free agent pitcher or two and a position player or two before Garza would even consider the Twins an option. Now that we have, the pitcher I believe is the best of the off season is a possibility. Sign him!
    He will cost more than any other free agent we signed this off season but there is a reason for that... He is a better pitcher. 4 years, front loaded, incentives based 4th year and an incentives based 5th year option.

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  22. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by goulik View Post
    At the beginning of the post season it was my belief that the Twins would have to grab a free agent pitcher or two and a position player or two before Garza would even consider the Twins an option. Now that we have, the pitcher I believe is the best of the off season is a possibility. Sign him!
    He will cost more than any other free agent we signed this off season but there is a reason for that... He is a better pitcher. 4 years, front loaded, incentives based 4th year and an incentives based 5th year option.
    Absolutely agree. I keep hearing the same thing, oh he could get injured, he will get injured, blah blah blah. Clearly outside of Tanaka he's the best free agent starter available and he's only 29/30. Ryan is crazy not to sign him to a 4 or 5 year deal similar to Nolasco. Correia is a free agent at seasons end. Pelfrey is not that good and under contract for two years. Hughes has potential but was brutal at Yankee Stadium. Matt Garza is the best option available at the right price. With Tanaka there's no way to know how he'll transition to the majors. I'd sign him if it was up to me.

  23. #99
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    The payroll sits at about $83mm, right? And management repeatedly touts 52% of revenue, and the ability to go to $100mm, right? (Which they have surpassed before, right?)

    I'd propose $17/year for Garza times 4 years...4/68. Plus maybe an option year? And if Correia is traded (for literally nothing), they are back to $95million for the season.

    He would be the highest paid pitcher on the roster (ever?)...but he is a Twins organization player, so it's not like it is a total free agent pick up. In four years, when the wave of young players are getting expensive, his contract comes off the books. And he helps them become very competitive for the next 4 years, I think, until Sano, Buxton and Meyer hit their prime.
    Last edited by AM.; 01-07-2014 at 07:08 PM.

  24. #100
    Doesn't a 4th year option based on innings pitch make perfect sense? 3/$51m with a $17m year 4 option if he pitches, say, 540 innings the previous three years?

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