01-12-2014, 12:22 AM #161
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Great... The defense of having a .600 OPS starting shortstop is based on guys that played 2-3 decades ago. And those guys aren't even relevant in this discussion. .660 OPS (Ozzie) is much better than .600 and he was one of the best defenders ever. Florimon is good defensively but he's not even close to that good. Gagne was 24 when he sucked in the majors and he was much better in the minors at much younger ages. If he hadn't improved then he wouldn't have been a starter on any team.
The problem I have is this blind optimism that somehow Florimon will just start hitting better because it will be his second season. There is very little to suggest that will be the case. I just hope that he doesn't hit worse.
01-12-2014, 08:24 AM #162
Let's keep on topic and off other posters please.Every post is not every other post. - a wise man
01-12-2014, 08:32 AM #163"If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."
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01-12-2014, 03:46 PM #164
01-12-2014, 03:57 PM #165
Ozzie Smith: 87 OPS+
Mark Belanger: 68 OPS+
Greg Gagne: 83 OPS+
Pedro Florimon: 67 OPS+
So you have a point with Belanger. The others, not so much.
Smith may have struggled in his early seasons but that's because he was woefully unprepared for MLB pitching. He spent all of one season in the minors, which wasn't terribly uncommon at the time but made for some pretty ugly stat lines early in careers.
Pedro Florimon not only spent ~3000 PAs facing MiLB pitching, he wasn't very good at hitting it.
01-12-2014, 05:10 PM #166
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As the Twins try to develop young hitters, it is critical they give them a long sustained opportunity through their struggle. Two years of regular consistent at bats (or starts for a pitcher) is necessary. Very few hitters come up to the majors ready to hit major league pitching. Plus defenders can grow towards an adequate hitter over time. It reall takes good scouting to see the potential and patience to wait out the struggle. I am not confident the Twins have either.
They certainly have not had patience with Parmelee, but maybe their scouting led them to believe he does not have the potential. They had patience with Casilla over several years, but he never played full time. There investment did not pay off. Did they choose correctly between Florimon and Escobar? Will they have patience?
01-14-2014, 06:50 PM #167
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Brock's point in #165 is worth noting--there are some adjustments that can be made for era and ballpark, but those adjustments are hardly statistically significant. At least he backed up his claim with some statistical weight. You just blasted me without making a convincing counter-argument based upon facts.
You mention that someone, somewhere must have "blind optimism" that Florimon's numbers will increase during his second year facing major league competition. Let's remember that ballplayers do tend to improve once they have faced big league talent over the course of 2000+ plate appearances. That's a fact--not merely blind optimism.
My main gripe, Kab, is your categorical dismissal of a point-counterpoint debate. You did the same in the 2014 mock draft thread--dismissing Bill James' analysis of drafting college-level talent vs. high school prospects without presenting facts that support a logical counter argument. All you said was that the data is too old. That's not convincing unless you can support your claim with a compelling counter claim.
Finally, we are "discussing" a player who showed significant statistical improvement in OPS over his last three years in the minor leagues. (.741 in 2011 and .670 in 2012) in spite of some pretty horrendous number is the lower levels of the minors. Florimon yo-yo'ed back and forth between A-/A+ and AA for several years. Even though Pedro struggled as he climbed up through the minors, his second year in each level showed marked improvement, most notably in 2010-11 when he was at AA Bowie in the Orioles' farm system where he raised his OPS from .483 to .781. There's a trend here, if you bother to look at the data. Florimon has consistently struggled each time he's moved up the ladder, but he has adjusted with each level and improved along the way. Like you, I hope he doesn't hit worse in 2014. The numbers seem to indicate that he could/should improve. I'd like to see that happen in a Twins uniform. If not, I owe you a beer. You name the pub, and I'll be glad to buy.
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01-14-2014, 07:17 PM #168
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01-14-2014, 07:37 PM #169
Let's keep the topic on Florimon specifically, and off other posters.
Also, dragging in beefs from another topic not only isn't productive, it's against forum policy.
01-15-2014, 09:56 AM #170
For the subjective:
It's too early to give up on Florimon. He can get better. And I believe he will be better than he was last year.
To someone with more validity than myself: Fangraphs
I don't have a Jamesian-esque batting performance projection system, a BPPS if you will, (yet), that I trust. So I'll borrow one: Steamer and Oliver (Fangraphs) both predict an increase in AVG and OBP. It's slight, but it's an improvement.
(back to the subjective)
I actually expect more of an improvement than what they have. Sorry to lump all these expectation on you Pedro, but it appears the Twins FO also is expecting you to do better. Either that, or they think Barlett is going to go 2009 on the world again.
On Staying Topic:
I didn't really sense the 'beef' other than to asking for someone to consider other statistics, instead of a blind blanketing statement. It's also asking to not repeat behavior here. Which if asked, one should do their best to comply. They also gave context. Maybe it should be a PM, but it shouldn't be discouraged. But still felt Florimon and the context of the discussion was trying to be redirected to Florimon versus averting to historical tendencies.
Back to factual and historically relevant information:
Also, Greg Gagne's 1985 (.225/.279/.317) would compare very well to Pedro Florimon's 2013 (.221/.281/.330). You'd actually be hard pressed to find a similar MLB experience, position, and AVG/OBP/SLG combo anywhere as close as Gagne/Florimon. Gagne played in a more offensive LG and park in 1985 as well. The minors (AAA), Gagne also played in a more offensive IL with similar numbers.
I happened to like Greg Gagne, and we won 2 World Series ('87 & '91) with him as our SS. So at a similar stage, Florimon is ever so slightly better offensively and better defensively if you consider (dWAR, Fld%, or RF) to be of any significance in assessing a player's defensive abilities.
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Don't Feed the Greed Guy (01-15-2014)
01-15-2014, 10:02 AM #171
Greg Gagne also posted an OPS of .800 in ~700 AAA plate appearances.
Way too many bad comparisons are being thrown around in this thread. Players of Florimon's age and MiLB track record do not have a history of significant improvement entering their late 20s. They just don't, which leaves many Florimon supporters basically hanging their analysis on hopes and prayers, which isn't the most sound reasoning to argue a player's worth.
That doesn't mean Florimon can't improve. He could buck the trend and become a .700+ OPS player. But that's rare. Extremely rare and not the sort of thing you bank on when crafting a MLB roster.
01-15-2014, 10:20 AM #172
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Maybe we can talk I Don't Give a Darn out of retirement to be our shortstop.
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Hosken Bombo Disco (01-15-2014)
01-15-2014, 10:23 AM #173
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Players who stick in the majors tend to eventually reproduce their minor league numbers. It might take a season or two of adjustment for that happen, but very rarely do players outperform their minor league numbers by any sort of significant margin.
This is where I come from on Florimon, and I think this is where Brock is as well. He has thousands of PAs in the minor leagues all of which say that he is not a good hitter. Could things suddenly click and he turn into a good hitter? Yes, it's possible. But I would think the odds at this point are incredibly low, especially given his age.
Personally, I'd rather roll the dice with Escobar at short. He has shown that he has the ability to hit, though he has not done it consistently. He's also younger. I'd rather give him a full season of the job and see if the Twins do need to go after JJ Hardy next year (or go with Drew this year) than to give Florimon another shot. SS is a big hole on this team, and it will be for the forseeable future. That's probably the one area where the next wave still doesn't have a long term option (unless Polanco can shine at SS this season).
01-15-2014, 10:27 AM #174
And that does not bode well for a 27 year old Pedro Florimon, whose 2013 OPS was ~.065 below his MiLB career numbers. He might become a .630 OPS player. That still makes him a bad MLB starter. He could also fall off the map entirely and post a sub-.600 OPS, which is often what happens to marginal MiLB players upon entering the show.
Another thing you have to factor into MiLB numbers is relative age to competition. For example, Miguel Cabrera routinely outperforms his MiLB numbers. He was also extremely young at every level so that's not terribly surprising.
Pedro Florimon, on the other hand, is on the opposite side of that spectrum. He has been older at every level, which means that his MiLB numbers should be well over what you expect from him as a mature MLB player. Again, this looks bad for Pedro Florimon as a hitter.
01-15-2014, 10:48 AM #175
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I think it would be interesting to see (somebody more ambitious than me can take a crack at it if they want) to see a general poll of who people would like to be our shortstop next year assuming we don't go get somebody else. We have Florimon and Escobar as the apparent choices, and a few people still interested in Dozier getting another shot. Heck, you could theoretically throw Plouffe back into the mix, too, though I doubt anyone would actually be in favor of that one.
Barring going out and getting Drew, I'd probably be in favor of Escobar getting a chance over Florimon. Reports and personal observations make me think he can be about as good defensively (less flash, more steady), and he looks like he could be a little better hitter to me (maybe a ~.650 OPS to Florimon's ~.600).
01-15-2014, 10:51 AM #176
Overall, Escobar has some room for growth so he should be given a bit of a longer leash but when you get right down to it, both Escobar and Florimon are pretty bad options as starters.
01-15-2014, 10:57 AM #177
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01-15-2014, 10:59 AM #178
Do you have some sort of statistic (medical records) to the physical age of Gagne's body versus Florimon's at 26 that would suggest they are different, other than the count of revolutions of the earth around the sun since they emerged from the whom?
Everybody ages differently. Natural age and birth age have been shown to vary greatly.
I personally find the MLB time to be more significant and projectionable.
01-15-2014, 11:02 AM #179
352 to 606. How much better was Gagne's next 4 months of baseball?
Here's the game logs for 1986....have at it. He hit pretty poorly in April and May.
You'd have to go about 2 weeks into Aug. You'll find Gagne near .240 AVG...
But again, the LG BA was 20 pts higher as a whole you want to take a little guess at how much higher it was at the dome?
Do a weighted average to Gagne's stats...
Last edited by twinsfan34; 01-15-2014 at 11:08 AM.
01-15-2014, 11:07 AM #180
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