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Thread: Pedro Florimon

  1. #221
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    I think the Twins should persue any player who could help improve the team, but I don't think Drew is worth $10m+/year + a 2nd round draft pick for 3 years. I just wouldn't do it unless it was an "all-in" situation. I like Drew better on a 1 or 2 year deal and 7 figures instead of 8.
    In regards to Drew's value, last winter he was coming off an injury-shorted year with his worst numbers since his first full MLB season. 2012 also saw him pass through waivers, get traded for peanuts in August, and get paid a $1.35 mil buyout instead of a $10 mil option for 2013. (An aside: where were the Twins in competing for Drew's services in 2012? At such an obvious position of need, gambling ~$12 mil on a quality MLB player bouncing back from injury seems like a smart play for a team like the 2012-2013 Twins.)

    In any case, after this terrible 2012, Drew still managed a 1 year, $9.5 mil deal with a big market contending team, only missed ~26 games directly due to injury according to B Pro, and went on to produce the second best rWAR and OPS+ figures of his career to date. (On a rate level, he pretty much equaled his career best in those categories, at least well within any margin of error.)

    He then turned down a 1/14 qualifying offer, and was predicted by MLBTR to get a 4/48 deal (with a low estimate of 3/36-42).

    Just as an asset, I think if you can snag a player like this for 3/30, due to an off market and the draft pick compensation issue rather than anything wrong with the player, you absolutely have to do it, almost regardless of what else you have at the position.

    If you refuse to sign this quality of player unless you can get him for true pennies on the dollar (and a 1 or 2 year, sub $10 mil annual deal for Drew would certainly qualify as that), then you will never get this quality of player on the free agent market. And you will basically be Terry Ryan in the arena of free agent acquisitions (at least pre-Nolasco TR, hopefully!).
    Last edited by spycake; 01-17-2014 at 12:23 PM.

  2. #222
    Senior Member Triple-A Reider's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    There's no reason they couldn't sign Drew now and still target shortstops in the future, if a better or longer-term solution became available. 3/30 now is nowhere near stressing Twins future payrolls, and Drew's bat and glove look like they could play at multiple other positions too.

    Assuming that Drew is a better bet to perform well over the next 3 years than Florimon (pretty much indisputable, IMHO?), it actually decreases the possibility/necessity of a "panic move" at the position within the next few years.
    Drew is a better bet to have a higher OBP in the future, that's pretty much it. Florimon is younger, more durable, and a good bet to be better defensively moving forward. Not to mention, much cheaper. But yes, if you want a guy that has a good track record for getting on base, Drew can do that. But at what price?
    As far as Hardy being "only one example", the Twins have spent the last 3 seasons (and arguably the last 6) searching for a shortstop. It's not that easy to find them. Certainly not easy enough that the Twins should be passing up affordable and available FA options to give second or third chances to waiver wire fodder.
    The Twins already had Hardy! That's the thing. They didn't even realize what they had and got rid of him and here we are wondering how we can get a player like him back on the team. If the Twins would have kept him, this would be a non-issue.

    Now, I don't have any strong feelings about Drew specifically, so if the Twins really think he's near a cliff or has lingering health issues, I am fine with passing on him. But the primary reason for passing on a FA upgrade at this position shouldn't be the modest cost or making a commitment to Florimon.
    Why not? There' are things called opportunity costs, cost benefit analysis', and diminishing returns. The Twins can get more bang for their buck in improving this team elsewhere, which they've already proven by signing players in a more desperate area of need: starting pitchers.
    Last edited by Reider; 01-17-2014 at 01:49 PM.

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  4. #223
    Senior Member Triple-A Reider's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    In regards to Drew's value, last winter he was coming off an injury-shorted year with his worst numbers since his first full MLB season. 2012 also saw him pass through waivers, get traded for peanuts in August, and get paid a $1.35 mil buyout instead of a $10 mil option for 2013. (An aside: where were the Twins in competing for Drew's services in 2012? At such an obvious position of need, gambling ~$12 mil on a quality MLB player bouncing back from injury seems like a smart play for a team like the 2012-2013 Twins.)

    In any case, after this terrible 2012, Drew still managed a 1 year, $9.5 mil deal with a big market contending team, only missed ~26 games directly due to injury according to B Pro, and went on to produce the second best rWAR and OPS+ figures of his career to date. (On a rate level, he pretty much equaled his career best in those categories, at least well within any margin of error.)

    He then turned down a 1/14 qualifying offer, and was predicted by MLBTR to get a 4/48 deal (with a low estimate of 3/36-42).

    Just as an asset, I think if you can snag a player like this for 3/30, due to an off market and the draft pick compensation issue rather than anything wrong with the player, you absolutely have to do it, almost regardless of what else you have at the position.

    If you refuse to sign this quality of player unless you can get him for true pennies on the dollar (and a 1 or 2 year, sub $10 mil annual deal for Drew would certainly qualify as that), then you will never get this quality of player on the free agent market. And you will basically be Terry Ryan in the arena of free agent acquisitions (at least pre-Nolasco TR, hopefully!).
    If Drew is of such great value, large upgrade, and a sure thing, why haven't the Twins or any other team in the league for that matter, signed him? If he was a bargain or great value at the price he's asking, some team would have signed him months ago.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    Drew is a better bet to have a higher OBP in the future, that's pretty much it. Florimon is younger, more durable, and a good bet to be better defensively moving forward. Not to mention, much cheaper. But yes, if you want a guy that has a good track record for getting on base, Drew can do that. But at what price?
    OBP +50 points, also ISO (isolated power) at least +70, plus another 30-40 points AVG. Combined that's about 150 points of OPS, which is greater than the difference between Dozier 2012 and 2013. Or equal to Morneau's career OPS pre- and post- concussion. Think that's not significant?

    EDIT TO ADD: Also the difference between Joe Mauer's career OPS and his disastrous 2011 season OPS. I think you're underestimating just how large the offensive difference is between Drew and Florimon. It was about 2.4 rWAR last year.

    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    There' are things called opportunity costs, cost benefit analysis', and diminishing returns. The Twins can get more bang for their buck in improving this team elsewhere, which they've already proven by signing players in a more desperate area of need: starting pitchers.
    Well, they haven't proven much yet, but the point is, there are still more bucks available, and there isn't another obvious spot to spend it, nor is there a really compelling reason to save it.
    Last edited by spycake; 01-17-2014 at 03:00 PM.

  7. #225
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    If Drew is of such great value, large upgrade, and a sure thing, why haven't the Twins or any other team in the league for that matter, signed him? If he was a bargain or great value at the price he's asking, some team would have signed him months ago.
    Drew may very well be holding out for that 4/48 contract. I don't know. But just because he's not signed by mid-January isn't much evidence that he can't be a good player or a good value.

    Last year, Kyle Lohse held out until late March (!) and finally settled for... 3/33. Then promptly turned in a 117 ERA+ over ~200 IP, quite possibly the second-best season of his career.

  8. #226
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Drew may very well be holding out for that 4/48 contract. I don't know. But just because he's not signed by mid-January isn't much evidence that he can't be a good player or a good value.

    Last year, Kyle Lohse held out until late March (!) and finally settled for... 3/33. Then promptly turned in a 117 ERA+ over ~200 IP, quite possibly the second-best season of his career.
    I think he'll sign with the Yankees as soon as the A-Rod thing is settled in court. If they want to avoid the luxury tax, they can't have both contracts. But once A-Rod's contract is off the table, they'll sign Drew to play second base.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post

    The Twins already had Hardy! That's the thing. They didn't even realize what they had and got rid of him and here we are wondering how we can get a player like him back on the team. If the Twins would have kept him, this would be a non-issue.
    If only there was a free agent out there in the Twins price range.
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I think he'll sign with the Yankees as soon as the A-Rod thing is settled in court. If they want to avoid the luxury tax, they can't have both contracts. But once A-Rod's contract is off the table, they'll sign Drew to play second base.
    The Yankees also have designs on Diaz playing 2nd base for them.

  12. #229
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    Drew is a better bet to have a higher OBP in the future, that's pretty much it. Florimon is younger, more durable, and a good bet to be better defensively moving forward. Not to mention, much cheaper. But yes, if you want a guy that has a good track record for getting on base, Drew can do that. But at what price?

    I'm glad you at least, grudgingly, partially answer the question that Drew would be an upgrade. But it's more than just OBP. He is demonstrably better at the plate than Florimon in Every. Single. Category. You continue to come back to the 20X the cost equation. As Spycake has stated, Drew's offensive WAR contribution clearly outstrips the premium cost for a proven major league bat.

    In answering your question, "...but at what price?", my answer is simple, one the Twins demonstrably can afford to pay, and just as importantly, incurs ZERO cost that could hinder the long-term plan for the club.
    Last edited by jokin; 01-17-2014 at 07:26 PM.

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    Head Moderator All-Star glunn's Avatar
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    Moderator note -- let's cool this down by at least 10%.

  14. #231
    Senior Member Triple-A Reider's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I'm glad you at least, grudgingly, partially answer the question that Drew would be an upgrade. But it's more than just OBP. He is demonstrably better at the plate than Florimon in Every. Single. Category.
    Florimon is younger, faster, more durable, has better tools defensively, had more stolen bases than Drew last year, and is obviously much much cheaper.

    Drew is good defensively and he gets on base. That's Drew. He doesn't hit a lot of home runs and he doesn't steal many bases. Not to mention last year he set a career high for strike outs. I get that he has a higher batting average and has more walks etc.. which helps with these other numbers that are mentioned, but his .253 batting average really doesn't impress me a whole lot. What impresses me about Drew is that he gets on base. He gets some hits, he draws walks, and he's pretty good defensively. There's not really much else that impresses me.

    He's on the wrong side of 30, his health is a bit of a quesiton mark, and his playoff performance has massively declined since 2007. Oh and he can't hit lefties, so he'd be a good platoon candidate. Coming off of a career high # of strike outs makes me wonder if and when he will be set for a decline. Is it next year or in 2 or 3 years? Of course, he's been so consistent over his career, he could maintain a respectable .OBP even with a lot of strike outs.
    You continue to come back to the 20X the cost equation. As Spycake has stated, Drew's offensive WAR contribution clearly outstrips the premium cost for a proven major league bat.

    In answering your question, "...but at what price?", my answer is simple, one the Twins demonstrably can afford to pay, and just as importantly, incurs ZERO cost that could hinder the long-term plan for the club.
    I see the value in Drew defensively and his ability to get on base. He's not going to hit a lot of home runs and he's definitely not going to steal bases, so you'd probably want to put him in front of someone who can drive the ball into or over the wall.

    As for the 20-26x the price + the second round draft pick to go along with all of the other negative aspects about Drew, I"m just trying to explain that there is the law of diminishing returns to take into consideration. I'm not saying that the Twins shouldn't sign Drew. They can do whatever they want and having Drew on the team wouldn't suck.

    I think I would rather pass on Drew, give Florimon another chance, then go after Hardy or find someone else. But if the Twins want to spend the money and make a commitment on Drew right now, I know that he would help the team. And to be honest, after 3 years of sitting on their hands, it really wouldn't hurt the Twins to spend some $. I get that. I"m as frustrated about the Twins kicking the can down the road as every other fan.

    One thing I like about Hardy over Drew is that even though Drew walks more than Hardy, Hardy strikes out less and hits more home runs. With Morneau gone, Willingham and Plouffe's HR's down last year, Hardy's power would be nice in the line up.
    Last edited by Reider; 01-18-2014 at 12:45 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    Florimon is younger, faster, more durable, has better tools defensively, had more stolen bases than Drew last year, and is obviously much much cheaper.

    As for the 20-26x the price + the second round draft pick to go along with all of the other negative aspects about Drew, I"m just trying to explain that there is the law of diminishing returns to take into consideration. I'm not saying that the Twins shouldn't sign Drew. They can do whatever they want and having Drew on the team wouldn't suck.
    This is the most entertaining debate I've seen on TD. It just keeps chirping along. Hopefully we can keep this up through Spring Training until P-Flow silences all of his detractors with a .330 OBP in April... Hey, a guy can dream, can't he?

    Obviously, I agree with Reider, on many of the points above. Florimon is just fun to watch in the field. I like watching great defense. But, as the saying goes, "chicks dig the long ball."

    Another take on the Florimon debate, from the near blogosphere. Perhaps you have already heard of him? His name is "Peduardo Florscobar"

    http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/201...-peduardo.html

    Here's a lively analysis that parallels many of the point made here, sans Drew. Y'all might find it entertaining...

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    Senior Member Triple-A goulik's Avatar
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    I am honestly back and forth on this. I think Florimon will be marginally better than last year and I love myself a defensive SS.

    I also want an offensive upgrade and with what is out there in FA and who is coming up, the only immediate offensive upgrade I can stomach sans trade is Drew.

    IMHO (which has changed) I think we should roll with this low payroll and Florimon.

    Or or make a trade...
    Last edited by goulik; 01-18-2014 at 10:02 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    Florimon is younger, faster, more durable, has better tools defensively, had more stolen bases than Drew last year, and is obviously much much cheaper.

    Drew is good defensively and he gets on base. That's Drew. He doesn't hit a lot of home runs and he doesn't steal many bases. Not to mention last year he set a career high for strike outs. I get that he has a higher batting average and has more walks etc.. which helps with these other numbers that are mentioned, but his .253 batting average really doesn't impress me a whole lot. What impresses me about Drew is that he gets on base. He gets some hits, he draws walks, and he's pretty good defensively. There's not really much else that impresses me.

    He's on the wrong side of 30, his health is a bit of a quesiton mark, and his playoff performance has massively declined since 2007. Oh and he can't hit lefties, so he'd be a good platoon candidate. Coming off of a career high # of strike outs makes me wonder if and when he will be set for a decline. Is it next year or in 2 or 3 years? Of course, he's been so consistent over his career, he could maintain a respectable .OBP even with a lot of strike outs.
    I'm not even sure how to respond to this stuff anymore.

    Drew's career OPS (which is slightly lower than his 2013 OPS, by the way) is 150 points higher than Florimon's 2013 OPS. Again, that is the difference between Morneau pre- and post-concussion. That is the difference between Mauer's 2011 lost season and the rest of Mauer's career. It's big.

    You may not be impressed by Drew's extra 30 points of AVG, or 50 points of OBP, or 70 points of ISO, but it adds up. He crushes Florimon offensively, and he has almost 4000 career PA of evidence to back it up.

  20. #235
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    Here is the problem with every free agent signing. Drew crushed Florimon last year in all offensive facets except stolen bases. Will he next year? I can't say for sure, nor can anyone on this board--past performance doesn't guarantee future results (from one of the investments companies, I think) and it is true for baseball players as well. What is known is that players decline after age 30 and they suffer more injuries. Stephen Drew could defy these statistics, but given his position and his injury history, I doubt it. I don't think he'll be a good player when the Twins are good.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stringer bell View Post
    Here is the problem with every free agent signing. Drew crushed Florimon last year in all offensive facets except stolen bases. Will he next year? I can't say for sure, nor can anyone on this board--past performance doesn't guarantee future results (from one of the investments companies, I think) and it is true for baseball players as well. What is known is that players decline after age 30 and they suffer more injuries. Stephen Drew could defy these statistics, but given his position and his injury history, I doubt it. I don't think he'll be a good player when the Twins are good.
    No guarantees, but the chances of Drew "crushing" offensively Florimon over the next 3 years is as close to a sure thing as you can possibly get for your investment portfolio. His injury history has already been demonstrated to be an overblown concept for alleged concern. He doesn't need to defy statistics, the Twins just need to manage his PAs to favor a higher ratio against RHP- he can sit a few more starts than he has in the past (say ~30-35), which reasonably gives him the chance to stay fresh over the next 3 years.

    How many SSs stay effective into their mid-30s and later? Many more than you give credit for. The Twins with 2 more big FA signings (Drew and a Garza-level SP) this offseason could fairly be considered a fringe prospect, and they certainly have a shot at being "good" or better in 2015 if their 5 top prospects become productive as they transition into the lineup this year and next. If Drew begins to decline precipitously in Year 3, there are other options developing- and absorbing a year of Drew's salary in his expiring year will be simple with other big names already off the books. This potential contract isn't a club-crippling gamble by any means. I think as a community we all need a little more optimism in supporting the probabilities for a Twins coming turnaround here at Twins Daily- Terry Ryan has already forked over $87M this offseason, just a little more fan "nudging" at the still-readily available $$$s remaining in the Pohlad purse strings and we can all help get this club back to relevancy sooner- not later.

  22. #237
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    My question is why would Drew sign with the Twins?
    Would you go from a championship team , to one that is in the middle of a 5 year rebuild?
    To me there is about a 03% chance we will sign him

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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    My question is why would Drew sign with the Twins?
    Would you go from a championship team , to one that is in the middle of a 5 year rebuild?
    To me there is about a 03% chance we will sign him
    After 12 pages this might be the best point of all. Drew would not be likely to sign with the Twins unless we were willing to substantially overpay or nobody else wanted him.

    I think everyone is looking for the easy and immediate solution. The question IMO is not if Drew is better than Florimon. The question to me is if Drew is the best solution for this team. Johnny, I liked the trade scenarios you proposed much better than signing Drew. Of course, making these trades happen is difficult but the prospects you suggested do not seem to be the untouchable type at all given the circumstances of their respective teams. A younger international FA has also been mentioned. That seems preferable to me as well. I would not mind if they signed Drew but I would feel like they are constructing a team to put a marketable team on the field as opposed to building a contender.

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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    My question is why would Drew sign with the Twins?
    Would you go from a championship team , to one that is in the middle of a 5 year rebuild?
    To me there is about a 03% chance we will sign him
    Dollars and years.

    And you're probably right about the percentages, but it's the easiest way to get this thing turned around and establish legitimacy and serious of intent on the part of managment to get other potential FA targets to at least consider the Twins as a landing place in the next couple years.

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    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    To me, this is in no way a negative about or against Drew. He's a solid ball player. I would not be upset in the slightest if the Twins did sign him. In fact, I'd be pretty excited to have a decent defensive SS who can provide some OB% and a little power to make our whole lineup deeper and better. It's not even about the Twins sacrificing a 2nd round pick, for once, who has between a 10-20% chance, roughly, of reaching the majors and being a contributing ball player. (Though I AM opposed to doing this often) And its not about the financial investment in Drew per say.

    It's more about overall return. I defy anyone to look in their crystal ball and tell us exactly what Drew will do and be worth over the next 3 seasons offensively and defensively. Can't be done. So you have to make the best educated guess you can.

    Can only play one season at a time, so let's look at only next season for a moment. Drew's offense, probably, does equate higher than Floriman or Floriman/Escobar. But how much better, especially for a rebuilding club? Both of these two are younger than Drew by 4-6 years, both have at least a little upside to improve, (and some track history to prove it) and rate better defensively at a defensive first position. As a platoon, they might even approach Drew's OB and BA with more speed and the better defense.

    This for less than 1M vs 10M for less defense and how much better offense and how many more wins potentially?

    Now skip to 2015 and assume that SS just isn't what we want it to be, and our team is ready or almost ready to compete. Is 10M tied up in Drew worth the investment? What about Hardy or another FA SS that provides just as good or better offense with better defense, but we have $10M tied up in Drew? Or how about trading for a talented player from another club with better defense, as good or better offense, younger, and perhaps cheaper, but we still have $10M tied up in Drew?

    Just because the Twins have money to afford to spend, and show a willingness to spend for improvement, doesn't mean they SHOULD or HAVE to spend it all in one off season. This team, with the moves made so far, talent on the roster, talent rising over the course of this season, could be ready to make at least some kind of move over the next season or two. Having the flexibility to add to that team, not being tied to a player who may be in decline, makes more responsible financial and roster flexibility sense to me.

    Again, not a comment on Drew. Just a feeling of not being the right player at the right time to make a match for our Twins.

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