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Thread: Tanaka to the Twins: What Would It Take?

  1. #21
    Super Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Reports I'm reading suggest that the SP FA market is being held up by Tanaka. If Tanaka is holding things up. Teams will be competitive. If teams are competitive for him... He blows past Darvish in years and dollars.

    Purely a guess... I'd say at least 7 years and probably around 150 for the Twins to land him.

    Yankees... Dodgers... Red Sox... I'll throw the Mariners in as well for Japanese consideration could get it done for 6 and 120. Purely a guess because I have no idea.
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  2. #22
    Senior Member Double-A zchrz's Avatar
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    So just kind of a random thought that probably has an easy answer but what is stopping a good prospect that is coming out of high school/ college in the US from skipping the draft, signing with a Japanese team, and then getting posted after a year or two. If someone like Mark Appel had went to Japan for a year, wouldn't it be a win/win for the team to make the posting fee and Appel to skip the cheap arbitration years and have a choice of teams to sign with?
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  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by zchrz View Post
    So just kind of a random thought that probably has an easy answer but what is stopping a good prospect that is coming out of high school/ college in the US from skipping the draft, signing with a Japanese team, and then getting posted after a year or two. If someone like Mark Appel had went to Japan for a year, wouldn't it be a win/win for the team to make the posting fee and Appel to skip the cheap arbitration years and have a choice of teams to sign with?
    Any HS/College player from the US is eligible to be drafted. IF they are undrafted they are free to sign any FA deal. IF the draftee fails to sign that year they can play over seas or in independent leagues & re-enter the draft next season. The team then gets a comp pick for not signing the player.

    I believe that if that process plays out a 2nd year in a row they would be a FA going into the 3rd year. Im not positive about that rule.

  4. #24
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    If I was Boston, I would outbid the Yankees on Tanaka who want him desperately. Then flip both Lester & Lackey who are in their final years to teams other than the Yankees who need a SP & lost out on Tanaka.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    I don't see the Twins being very interested in this... not anymore at least.

    that's just me.
    The Twins never were, Once he cost more then 2 bunches of bananas and a donkey , you know they were looking for an exit stratogy. with the payroll being capibale of 127.5 million this year with out using the all star money I agree the Pohlads should just pocket that extra 45 million on top of the normal 10% or 20+ million,after all they got us that shinny new palace right, its not like 2009 payroll was 79 million was it? ...bottom line is the Twins need to post bid and win on Masahiro and then turn around and sign Garza to boot ....

  6. #26
    This guy could be a bust of Hideki Irabu proportions. Garza for half the price makes far more sense.

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    thetank (12-27-2013)

  8. #27
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    It rarely makes sense to bid in a market of scarcity. It rarely makes sense to buy when the player's value is at its zenith. If both conditions hold, you should always pass.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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    thetank (12-27-2013)

  10. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trevor0333 View Post
    I would think he won't be looking for a 6-7 year deal, you want to hit the FA market again before you reach 30 optimally. So I dont think one of those lifetime contracts will be necesary to land him. The tax situation is definitely something that needs to be thought about. Going to Texas or Florida with no state taxes you will need to outbid those teams to make an equal offer.

    With a future OF consisting of Buxton/Hicks and Sano on the brink in a pitcher friendly park MN is a desirable long term option. I still think it would take a 4 year 20-22 mill a year deal to land him in MN.

    Texas, LAD, & NYY are the 3 places I expect to be the real contenders for his services with Cubs & Red Sox as sleepers. Seattle & the Angels are already too stretched payroll wise to be suitable IMO.

    I would love to land him but Im not sure it makes sense for the Twins. I'd still prefer to jump in on Garza for 4 years at 15 per while teams are bidding on Tanaka.
    No, players want the most guaranteed money they can get. 6-7 years is a lifetime for a pitcher and if he's getting 20+M/yr as expected then he'll take every year he can get. The exception is taking a 1 year offer after a poor season.

  11. #29
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    Ive said it before the Twins only chance is to sell Tanaka on a short contract to establish himself , see what each team is like, in a non pressure sitituation, like Minnesota, then hope you can get good enough in that time frame that he wants to stay....say a 2+1 deal.Thus making him a 28 year old FA with a proven track record

  12. #30
    I could not agree more. The Twins have no chance, and my guess is they have no interest because they know they have no chance. It's fun to talk about unless you actually think about it. Cause when you think about it, you realize quickly how unrealistic Tanaka to the Twins really is.

  13. #31
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    I would also worry about injury for the pitcher. Saw a posting the other day that Tanaka threw a 170 pitches in a game. Would rather see the Twins offer Garza close to what he wants than to go down this path. My guess is that he winds up with a 9 figure number for 6-7 years and will either win that GM an executive of the year award, or fail and get the GM fired. My guess is that he is not worth that amount.

  14. #32
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    This is a really good read on Tanaka. Very detailed in-depth analysis of his stuff, including some red flags. Long but worth while...
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    kab21 (12-27-2013)

  16. #33
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    This is a really good read on Tanaka. Very detailed in-depth analysis of his stuff, including some red flags. Long but worth while...
    Good read. No Thanks. He sports a low 90s fastball and a lot of splits. His arm is due for major regression with the workload he's been through. And he's not that good. Kuroda is the best comp. Haren is his next best comp. That's not good enough to warrant the dollars and years he is about to get.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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  18. #34
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer minn55441's Avatar
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    No thanks. If we are going to lock up a pitcher for 6, 7 or 8 years, this is not the guy. A contract like this could really hurt a team long term if he doesn't preform at a true number one or if he misses time due to injury.

  19. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    I'd love this but I think they've spent all they can this offseason on pitching. Be a pleasant surprise though, if you are landing high upside/talent...go for it.
    Um what? We are currently about 2 million above the 2009 payroll ...there is about 48 million more avalible if you believe the owner or Terry W. Ryan

  20. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    This is a really good read on Tanaka. Very detailed in-depth analysis of his stuff, including some red flags. Long but worth while...
    New Marlins infielder Casey McGehee, who played with Tanaka for Rakuten last season, tells Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun Sentinel that Tanaka is worth the hype. "His forkball is the best one I’ve seen. ... He was really special with that pitch," says McGehee. "Whoever gets him…it’s going to be money well spent."

  21. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by minn55441 View Post
    No thanks. If we are going to lock up a pitcher for 6, 7 or 8 years, this is not the guy. A contract like this could really hurt a team long term if he doesn't preform at a true number one or if he misses time due to injury.
    At the risk of stating the obvious, it is a lot riskier for the twins than a top 5 revenue team. The Yankees or the Dodgers can spend the Twins entire budget on position players and bullpen and still have enough left over to sign FAs at this price for their entire starting rotation.

  22. #38
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    There is a lot to like. Any long term contract will capture the prime of his career with little of the decline. There is no acquisition cost in terms of players traded or draft picks lost or used.

    Is there a pitcher with more upside on the roster than Tanaka? Meyer? Tanaka is only 1 year older than Meyer and younger than an other potential pitcher on the staff.

  23. #39
    If we could get him for "market value" I would probably be in favor. I certainly would be ok with a contract that is both longer and richer than Nolasco's at $12 million per year. 7/$120 for Tanaka appeals to me more than 4/$60+ for Garza, or trading for David Price for that matter (whom we almost certainly couldn't get without including Meyer in the package).

    My problem is that I don't think he would sign with the Twins for anything close to "market value." We would have to overpay big time to get him to sign, and that is a risk we can't afford.

  24. #40
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer minn55441's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready View Post
    At the risk of stating the obvious, it is a lot riskier for the twins than a top 5 revenue team. The Yankees or the Dodgers can spend the Twins entire budget on position players and bullpen and still have enough left over to sign FAs at this price for their entire starting rotation.
    It must not be obvious, because there are many people in favor of the Twins making a signing such as this.

    Only commit big money and a lot of years to proven commodities. It's not a good idea to get in a bidding war with teams that can afford to make a mistake and eat a bad contract. Although we are coming off of three terrible seasons, the light at the end of the tunnel are the following facts. 1) plenty of young talent in the system 2) we currently don't have any huge bad contracts preventing us from making intelligent moves, when the time is right.

    The time will be right, when we need one or two key pieces to put us in a position to make a run in the postseason. We are not even close to the point where we should be sliding all of our chips into the center of the table.

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