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Thread: Max Kepler

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Comparing an OF to Parmelee is pretty damning. Especially a young outfielder.

    I am not as high on Kepler as most people are. He had one out of 4 above average professional seasons (2012 in Etown.) His 2013 numbers in Cedar Rapids (as a 20 year old) were .237/.312/.424. Compare those to 20 year old Trevor Harrison (another 1B long term candidate) who is in the same age in the same team last season (.253/.366/.416) or 21 year old Adam Walker in the same team last season ( .278/.319/.526) or a then 21 year old (a year older) Kennys Vargas in the same league in 2012 (.318/.419/.610). And I should not mention Brian Buxton (who is younger)

    In my opinion it is pretty clear that there is better talent around his age group than Kepler at this point both at OF and at 1B. I think that the Twins should be smart and sell high as long as he is still ranked up there in prospects lists...
    This entire analysis is based on simple slash stats?

    He had an extremely low BAPIP last year. Maybe he naturally will have a lower BAPIP or perhaps it will return to a normal .300 next year. If that happens he will be considered an outstanding prospect again. If you actually look deeper at his numbers you would notice excellent K and BB rates with a solid isoP. the other guys you mentioned are similar level prospects. They outproduced him but there are also some flaws in their prospect profile. The good news is that Ft Myers should have an excellent season this year.

  2. #22
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    This entire analysis is based on simple slash stats?

    He had an extremely low BAPIP last year. Maybe he naturally will have a lower BAPIP or perhaps it will return to a normal .300 next year. If that happens he will be considered an outstanding prospect again. If you actually look deeper at his numbers you would notice excellent K and BB rates with a solid isoP. the other guys you mentioned are similar level prospects. They outproduced him but there are also some flaws in their prospect profile. The good news is that Ft Myers should have an excellent season this year.
    I guess my only quibble here is that I don't think BABIP is purely a luck thing. I think its something that good major leaguers can adjust and correct to, but it implies he's making weak contact far more often than he should. Given his age and the fact that he had injury problems this season, it's quite possible that it does get corrected and he returns to being a big prospect, but I do think at this stage of the game, people should start being skeptical.

    Hopefully he has a great year and ends this discussion.

  3. #23
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    I guess my only quibble here is that I don't think BABIP is purely a luck thing. I think its something that good major leaguers can adjust and correct to, but it implies he's making weak contact far more often than he should. Given his age and the fact that he had injury problems this season, it's quite possible that it does get corrected and he returns to being a big prospect, but I do think at this stage of the game, people should start being skeptical.

    Hopefully he has a great year and ends this discussion.
    Actually, it does not imply anything about the quality of the contact. If it implies anything, it implies that he hit a lot of balls right at people. If someone is shown to be unusually unlucky one year, odds are, he'll be lukier the next. Combine his ill luck with his injury, and the odds are pretty good he'll put up better slash numbers in Ft. Myers, even with the league adjustments.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    I guess my only quibble here is that I don't think BABIP is purely a luck thing. I think its something that good major leaguers can adjust and correct to, but it implies he's making weak contact far more often than he should. Given his age and the fact that he had injury problems this season, it's quite possible that it does get corrected and he returns to being a big prospect, but I do think at this stage of the game, people should start being skeptical.

    Hopefully he has a great year and ends this discussion.
    that is why I put in the disclaimer that perhaps he will naturally have a lower BAPIP. Statistically 3 seasons of data (according to fangraphs IIRC) is needed for a relevant sample size of BAPIP. Kepler played 61 games which is not even close to being a relevant BAPIP sample. Nobody should be surprised if his BA (consequently his OBP and SLG) bump up quite a bit this season simply due to an increase in BAPIP.

    The big thing is that BAPIP can easily rebound and he can be a success. A player with poor K and BB rates is more likely to struggle since he probably has poor plate discipline.

  5. #25
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    Kepler was added to the 40-man roster--he needs to have a big year at CR to justify this opportunity. There are others that are productive hitters and will pass right by him if he doesn't "shine".

  6. #26
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    Kepler was added to the 40-man roster--he needs to have a big year at CR to justify this opportunity. There are others that are productive hitters and will pass right by him if he doesn't "shine".
    I agree with everything, except for the part about CR. He will start the year at FM.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  7. #27
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I agree with everything, except for the part about CR. He will start the year at FM.
    I hope you are right.

    Again, his numbers in the AFL were pretty pedestrian, however, he was a level or two above his head and coming off a shortened season. I'd like to think natural talent, the challenges he faced and learned from would project him to FtM. I think CR to open the season, get his legs under him, might be the more conservative and perhaps prudent move. Regardless, he is one of my picks for a milb to really show this season.

    By all accounts, including my father who watched ST 2012, the young man just exudes athletic ability. Is this the year it all starts to click? I really believe so.

    Back to the OF while continuing to play 1B. Can you imagine his overall athletic skills taking over for Mauer in a few years while still backing up the corner OF spots?

    This is the year it all starts coming together.

  8. #28
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    Kepler was added to the 40-man roster--he needs to have a big year at CR to justify this opportunity. There are others that are productive hitters and will pass right by him if he doesn't "shine".
    He'll likely get a 4th option year. Unless he completely tanks, he'll be on the 40 man for a couple of years at least. He's too young.

    And, I agree. He'll likely start in Ft. Myers, probably playing a lot in LF. When DJ Hicks DHs, he'll play some first base too.

  9. #29
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    Just a note on those pedestrian AFL numbers...

    Someone (MiLB.com?) had a piece on Kepler in which they said he led the league in what I think they called 'average batted ball distance'. Basically, they were saying that he, as a 19 year old, was hitting the ball 'harder' than anyone else in the league.

    Now, I would much rather not have to dig so hard to find numbers that support my excitement for Kepler, but this is still pretty good news for a 6'4" prospect with good plate discipline who has yet to develop his man-muscles.

  10. #30
    Senior Member Triple-A B Richard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    Actually, it does not imply anything about the quality of the contact. If it implies anything, it implies that he hit a lot of balls right at people.
    This is not entirely true. Luck can be a considerable factor in determining BABIP, but other factors like speed and quality of contact can play a role. Does it surprise you that Joe Mauer owns a career BABIP of .350? Michael Bourn comes in at .342, to name another relevant example.

    In any case, it is far too early to identify any sort of a baseline BABIP for Kepler. This is the nature of prospects. For what it's worth, I suspect he will bounce back with a strong year, provided he is healthy of course. Our minor league system is becoming more and more exciting to watch- a good omen for the big league club.
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