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Thread: Not Hearing Much About Worley

  1. #101
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    If the difference between this rotation being not-awful is dumping Correia for Worley - then I have a newsflash for you - we'll still be awful. Correia has such a low ceiling for those guys to surpass, why not risk that they can be that good with the chance they could be much better? (Because, again, at ages under 27, they've already done that!)
    They "risked" that approach last season and Kevin Correia was the Twins' best starting pitcher.

    I repeat. Kevin Correia was the Twins' best starting pitcher. If that doesn't make you gag a little, I don't know what will.

    If it's so easy to surpass Kevin Correia's meager ability, one of those guys should have been able to do it last season... Except all of them failed to surpass a guy who is barely a #4 starter on a good team. Three of those guys spent most of the season in the minor leagues. They weren't only worse than Kevin Correia, they were so bad that they couldn't stay in the worst starting rotation in all of baseball.

    Leaving the bottom 2 rotation spots to three guys who bombed out of MLB in various ways last season is a good way to ensure that you have another pitching crisis on your hands in 2014.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    That is PRECISELY the kind of risk you should take when you're still in a rebuild and it's precisely the same argument you're making in another thread. The difference is people have gotten so worked up about the pitching lately (for good reason) that they're losing sight of good practices.
    I'm making that argument in another thread for a very different reason: I said Chris Parmelee should have been thrown out there six days a week in 2013 because 90 losses was inevitable, with or without Parmelee. At that point, let the kids play and see what happens.

    2014 is not 2013. The Twins may still be bad but there's no reason to enter a season expecting to lose 90 games after you've spent $85m on pitching. If you can marginally improve the team while still leaving open opportunities to let guys surprise you, that's a good approach.

    And that's basically what the Twins have done.

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  3. #102
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    If it's so easy to surpass Kevin Correia's meager ability,
    They were hurt. And it was one season. That's your reasoning for giving up on them. Those are two very poor reasons.

    2014 is not 2013.
    Then we disagree. Unless this team dramatically improves it's offense (right now, minus signing Drew and a legit DH for example) - it's still an 85-90 loss team. Hughes and Pelfrey were also both worse than Correia last year and yet you've penciled them in as being enough to put the Twins into, what, a .500 season? 75 wins? Even though you carry the same hopes for them that I do for Diamond and Worley. Except I'm rooting for cost controlled 25 and 26 year olds and you're banking on established sub-par guys finding another gear here. I share the hope in their upside, but for the very same reasons I hope for Worley and Diamond! I'm just being consistent in that belief where there is talent and a track record and hope for the future.

    The moves made this offseason were good for 2015. 2014, as it stands today, is still another lost season. So, no, the reasons are the same. You just believe 2014 is going to be much better than I do. I have them at probably 72-88, somewhere in that range.

    Seems like the kind of team that shouldn't jerk around 25 year olds with major league track records of success. Invest in those guys and hope.

  4. #103
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    They were hurt. And it was one season. That's your reasoning for giving up on them. Those are two very poor reasons.
    Who is giving up on them? I never said any of them should be DFAed. I think they should all go into Spring Training and then evaluations should be made.

    I also have said repeatedly, though not in this thread, that Ryan should be shopping some relievers this offseason to clear up roster space.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Then we disagree. Unless this team dramatically improves it's offense (right now, minus signing Drew and a legit DH for example) - it's still an 85-90 loss team. Hughes and Pelfrey were also both worse than Correia last year and yet you've penciled them in as being enough to put the Twins into, what, a .500 season? 75 wins? Even though you carry the same hopes for them that I do for Diamond and Worley. Except I'm rooting for cost controlled 25 and 26 year olds and you're banking on established sub-par guys finding another gear here. I share the hope in their upside, but for the very same reasons I hope for Worley and Diamond! I'm just being consistent in that belief where there is talent and a track record and hope for the future.

    The moves made this offseason were good for 2015. 2014, as it stands today, is still another lost season. So, no, the reasons are the same. You just believe 2014 is going to be much better than I do. I have them at probably 72-88, somewhere in that range.

    Seems like the kind of team that shouldn't jerk around 25 year olds with major league track records of success. Invest in those guys and hope.
    Again, all of these players should receive opportunities to succeed in MLB. In this rotation, they will get those opportunities because this rotation still isn't very good and unless the Twins sprinkle magic pixie dust on their staff, at least two of Nolasco, Pelfrey, Correia, and Hughes will lose time in 2014 due to ineffectiveness and/or injury. That's just how a 162 game baseball season plays out.

    But Diamond, Worley, and Deduno should not be guaranteed a rotation spot going into the season. That's where we differ in opinion. They've tried that approach in seasons past and they were burned badly by it. Let them fight over the last spot in ST, stash at least one more of them in the pen, and ride out the season. Everybody will end up getting work by the time September ends.

  5. #104
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Who is giving up on them?
    If they don't make the roster - the Twins. And there isn't much room on the roster, that's the genesis of the point. To me, it's a symptom of an inconsistent/poor argument when it can't keep the opposing view straight. It feels like people are constantly shifting the conversation.

    If Ryan trades someone - relievers, Correia, or anyone else - then it frees up a lot of this problem. But we're talking about the current situation hypothetically.

    But Diamond, Worley, and Deduno should not be guaranteed a rotation spot going into the season. That's where we differ in opinion. They've
    *deep breath* I implore you to go back and read my posts and show me where I've made any mention of that. I've said repeatedly that I want the 4 guys fighting for two spots. If you're deadset on Correia, make him actually fight for it to. I'm not scholarshipping anything, that was introduced by a consistently derailing poster. Not me, I've been very specific in my language to open up more competition for the spots by opening up another spot. You should be better than once again misrepresenting my point as others have been want to do here.

    And the continued insinuation is that these guys will just slide into the rotation when injuries happen. Well, fine for Gibson if you're ok with that. And even if you do, it's akin to putting Parmele on the bench for two weeks and then wondering why he went 1-9 in the two random games you played him in later.

    But the other three can't just go to AAA and wait for that. They have to make the team in some capacity and, as I laid out, there doesn't appear to be a lot of room for that. If they had options, I wouldn't be concerned one iota. I'm concerned we may lose them for nothing and they represent too much upside for me to stomach that on a team that still isn't ready to contend and still needs significant pitching help long-term.
    Last edited by TheLeviathan; 12-25-2013 at 06:38 PM.

  6. #105
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Well then, my rebuttal to your argument is "we can discuss this more when/if the Twins are on the verge of losing one of these guys". Right now, it seems like a lot of gnashing of teeth over hypotheticals. There are still several ways Ryan can make their lack of options a non-issue before the season begins.

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  8. #106
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Well then, my rebuttal to your argument is "we can discuss this more when/if the Twins are on the verge of losing one of these guys". Right now, it seems like a lot of gnashing of teeth over hypotheticals. There are still several ways Ryan can make their lack of options a non-issue before the season begins.
    All offseason discussion is teeth knashing. BUt I'm hoping the roster crunch is sorted out soon as well.

  9. #107
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    I do agree that things usually do work out and it is premature to speculate on transactions so early. However, it is problematic that there likely isn't more than one open spot in the rotation with four or five candidates, including three that are out of options. It makes sense to address the "problem" when it really is a problem, but holding on the one or more of those guys and getting little or no return for letting them go might be another example of selling low.

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  11. #108
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    I am mystified by all this concern for a bunch of nobodies and the necessity to keep them. Their lack of success was caused by a lack of ability. The theory of pitching previously used by the Twins has been proven a failure, and steps have been taken move from "dead last" to below average. We should all be thankful for the effort as well as the result. Since this result will ultimately "cost" the services of failed pitchers we should (in the spirit of the holiday) sing "Hallelujah".

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  13. #109
    Head Moderator MVP glunn's Avatar
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    Moderator note -- there are some borderline posts in this thread and I am asking everyone to be careful to be respectful to people with whom they disagree.

  14. #110
    Senior Member All-Star Hosken Bombo Disco's Avatar
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    I've enjoyed this thread. Multiple people here have now said that, even after these FA pitcher signings (Nolasco et al) have improved the rotation, that the Twins still have a below average rotation. Which actually reinforces the point Leviathan is making, which I tend to side with. Which is that too many expensive mid to late career free agents who can pitch ok appear to be the ones getting the scholarships but then are also blocking the growth of young guys who might actually make it an above average rotation.

    So, the rough AAA stats from 2013 at a glance for the young guys:

    Diamond (41 innings) 4-0, 2.41
    Gibson (101 innings) 7-5, 2.92
    Gilmartin (91 innings) 3-8, 5.74
    KJohnson (135 innings) 10-4, 2.39 (28 yrs old, 900 career innings at AAA)
    Worley (58 innings) 6-3, 3.88

    Another question is what more do Gibson and Diamond have left to work on at AAA? How can TR get these guys producing at the majors so that yes we can trade a Correia or use him in the bullpen?

  15. #111
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    I don't know what a "below average" rotation is. Supposing you mean "middle of the pack in WAR" or some such objective measure, I would say it will be about average.

    But it was far below average last year in large part because it relied on Worley and Diamond as #1 and #2. Ryan signed Correia to be the #3 starter. And he performed just a hair below average for that role. The guys who stank up the joint were Worley and Diamond. Rather than relying on them this year, Ryan signed Nolasco and Hughes. That's a bigger upgrade at those two positions than any team in baseball pulled off.

    So whom do you keep after that? Well, if you chose Diamond or Worley over Correia, you weren't paying attention last year. It is no exaggeration to say that Correia saved this team and this bullpen by putting up one quality start after another while Worley and Diamond were leaving with a 6-run deficit in the third inning a lot.

    "But, wait a minute, they were hurt!" They were not hurt. They had routine elbow clean outs. In Worley's case, it happened in September of 2012, six months prior to the season. Last spring, that surgery was reason for optimism that he could return to 2011 form. The claim was, he was hurt in 2012 and his arm would be much healthier in 2013. And it was. He just sucked. One belt-high two-seamer after another. Batting practice. He's now two years from his magical ride in which he was one of the luckier pitchers in baseball. This is called regression to the mean. Maybe he'll improve from last year. It's hard to see how he could be worse. But his upside is not nearly as good as Correia's normal.

    In Diamond's case, he had the surgery in December, which was plenty of time to rest, rehab and get innings. He did have a few complications in Spring Training that delayed him. But by April 15, he was as healthy as ever. He just didn't locate as well as he had in 2012, when he was in some kind of lucky groove. To think he'll ever return to that groove is whishful. GMs get fired for wishful thinking. Unlike last year, Ryan planned on Diamond's regression to the mean this year. Good for him. If Diamond doesn't make this team, he has about a 50/50 chance of clearing waivers and staying with the team. I like those odds.

    After those two, the Twins have options, and it does no harm to use them. This is all much ado about nothing.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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  17. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hosken Bombo Disco View Post
    I've enjoyed this thread. Multiple people here have now said that, even after these FA pitcher signings (Nolasco et al) have improved the rotation, that the Twins still have a below average rotation. Which actually reinforces the point Leviathan is making, which I tend to side with. Which is that too many expensive mid to late career free agents who can pitch ok appear to be the ones getting the scholarships but then are also blocking the growth of young guys who might actually make it an above average rotation.

    So, the rough AAA stats from 2013 at a glance for the young guys:

    Diamond (41 innings) 4-0, 2.41
    Gibson (101 innings) 7-5, 2.92
    Gilmartin (91 innings) 3-8, 5.74
    KJohnson (135 innings) 10-4, 2.39 (28 yrs old, 900 career innings at AAA)
    Worley (58 innings) 6-3, 3.88

    Another question is what more do Gibson and Diamond have left to work on at AAA? How can TR get these guys producing at the majors so that yes we can trade a Correia or use him in the bullpen?
    The free-agents aren't blocking anybody--they're blocking nobodies! True, there isn't "something to work-on (or learn) at AAA", these guys just "don't have it". The strategy of scouring baseball "dumpster-diving" to find people who might succeed (on-the-cheap) has been found wanting. The fans are demanding major-league talent--at least guys who have at least "cleared the bar", even if only by a hair,--rather than guys who are little more than "feel-good stories". No more "Rudy" or "The Replacements" but actual major league players.

  18. #113
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    I do not see where Duduno, Diamond, K Johnson, Albers, Gilmartin or Worley become much more than back of the rotation starters much like Correia or Pelfrey. Correia nor Pelfrey make so much money that being in the bullpen isn't a serious blow if the former group takes a huge leap forward in their pitching ability. The fifth spot is Gibson's on scholarship until Meyer steps forward. If both pitch above average, a starter goes to the bullpen.

    It is refreshing to see some of the people have optimism that all the pitchers will perform to their highest level.

  19. #114
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    Kwak, you are summing up a lot of posts well here I believe. Way too many words expressed in the forum about marginal players and I do not have to name them again, we all know who they are and hopefully NONE of them will be around two or three years hence. If they are then the franchise is in much deeper trouble as a winning organization than we realize, isn't it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    I've been focused on Correia from step one, but no one has approached replying with any degree of fairness to my point so it's been lost.

    im not convinced Diamond has a lot of upside but I would've said the same of Dozier not long ago. It's dangerous to give up on young players who had one dip in performance due to injury. Especially when they already have had major league success.

    In the name of upgrades (Nolasco) or guys with rebound upside (Pelfrey and Hughes) I'm not concerned. When the roster squeezes and Correia survives at their expense? Yeah, that's a problem.
    It's been evident from step one Correia is not one of your favorite people. I believe your focus is being questioned since you mentioned 12 other Twins.
    Last edited by howieramone; 12-26-2013 at 08:27 PM. Reason: careful characterization

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    Head Moderator MVP glunn's Avatar
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    Moderator note -- let's always be careful when characterizing another poster's positions. And let's always be respectful of our fellow TD members.

    There is a lot of good discussion in this thread, but if the tone does not change then we will close it down.

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    Head Moderator MVP glunn's Avatar
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    Moderator note -- the next post that tends to incite/escalate squabbling is going to result in a one week ban.

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  24. #118
    Senior Member All-Star Hosken Bombo Disco's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    But it was far below average last year in large part because it relied on Worley and Diamond as #1 and #2. Ryan signed Correia to be the #3 starter. And he performed just a hair below average for that role. The guys who stank up the joint were Worley and Diamond. Rather than relying on them this year, Ryan signed Nolasco and Hughes. That's a bigger upgrade at those two positions than any team in baseball pulled off.
    I do agree. In a fluke-y kind of way, 2013 did answer some questions about the rotation. Ryan stepped up and made some decent signings, and now let's hope a couple of the young guys step up and pitch their way back in.

  25. #119
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    There is actually a lot of great points made on both sides of this discussion. As I see it, the two camps are basically these:

    A) Correia turned out to be a better signing than anyone expected. He was generally solid and dependable. Again, more-so than anyone expected. How much worse would this team have been without him? His overall numbers would have been better with greater support. We want our team to improve. Having him slide further down the pecking order in the rotation will only make us deeper, better, and with a better chance to be competitive each game.

    B) Correia has never been anything special, just solid and largely dependable. He has no upside at this point. With the talent we do have, and the young talent on its way, some of who are ready or very close, why stick with a guy who lacks upside and won't even be with us a year from now?

    And really, the problem is, both sides are correct.

    TR has put together a potential staff that lacks a #1 starter to be sure, but has the best overall depth of talent and potential the team has had in several seasons. Nolasco and Hughes in particular, Pelfrey has had some success, does provide innings, and should be better this season, rebounding/rehabbing not only his arm n general, but his endurance and the mental part of belief in his arm. (One could hope for a suggest the same of Gibson and others as well) And there is nothing wrong with a stable innings eater like Correia adding to the depth of a chance to win with a solid performance day in and day out. Haven't we all seen enough of 5 & 6 run deficit games after 3 innings?

    But it's also true that Correia, signed through only this season, older than any other SP on the team, and without upside, is NOT a part of the future. Now it's true that winning is good, and a team "learning to win" and expecting to is also a good thing. But where does "solid chance to win today" meet the place of winning tomorrow?

    As I have stated before in regard to Deduno somewhat, but mostly Diamond and Worley, if you've done it before, you just might be ale to show that you can do it again. I know their injuries weren't of a major nature, but there was injury and some surgery as well. Not only do you have to get healthy, but you have to get your work in to build your arm, but to also get your "feel" back for pitches as well as your overall confidence. Does this excuse Diamond and Worley from just awful years? No. Do they have a long-standing record of quality production? Again no. But all of that does provide some small measure of possibility and opportunity that simply must be allowed.

    Unfortunately, when ST begins, I'm afraid Deduno may still be rehabbing and strengthening, etc. I have doubts he's going to be a 100% right off the bat. I think TR is hedging his bets. That would leave 3, not 4 fighting for the final spot in the rotation. There s no doubt and no debate that Gibson is the greater talent here. I hope he's ready, hope he kicks butt and takes names from day one. But one year of AAA, inconsistent, then consistent, then a MLB promotion where he struggles is almost to be expected for most young pitchers, much less one coming back from TJ surgery. I want him in the rotation, e needs to be in the rotation. But as I've said before, a few starts in AAA to stretch out and pitch every day to begin the season isn't a bad thing, or an inditement of his talent or potential.

    And how many times does anyone come through ST with every SP 100%, no blisters, no muscle pulls, etc. If Diamond and/or Worley can really find themselves again, I believe the Twins will make room for them, cheaper, younger, more upside, and surely someone could use a veteran like Correia.

    You don't keep a 1 year, mediocre innings eater over a younger player with some potential. It you also don't keep a younger player just because he's younger if he falls on his face. I truly believe the Correia situation will play itself out in ST.

    Ideally, he would be traded for something because two of Deduno, Gibson, Worley and Diamond will prove him expendable.

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  27. #120
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    Apparently this thread got high-jacked and shifted from Worley to Correia. Part of the problem (re: playing the minor-league guys) is that the Twins had set the bar for pitchers at innings-eater rather than much higher. They cling to players like they are their children and keep cycling them up-and-down from Minneapolis to Rochester. That idea might be acceptable if said player was a potential all-star rather than an innings-eater. Those discussed have all had a good "look-see" and frankly didn't measure up to MLB standard. Some will have to be released this season (some will be retained). What is happening with the Twins rotation is simply a form of "Natural Selection"--the free agents were paid to put a competitive team (not a contending team) on the field this season. Those who get released--well that's baseball, not everybody succeeds.

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