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Thread: Article: Pelfrey & Baker: A Study in Arm Resilience

  1. #21
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    True Nick and I credit the Twins on Baker, but the mentality was wrong. Not to mention I think we all agree swapping Correia and Pelfreys contracts last year would be beneficial now.

    The twins have prized toughness and durability over talent for awhile but that trend seems to be changing for the better.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    What was known publicly about Baker is not the same as what the Twins knew about Baker. They had been working with Baker for years. He had been using their facilities, their doctors, their staff. Nobody knew Scott Baker better than the Twins.

    I think it speaks volumes that they (again, reportedly) wanted a second year or no deal.
    Of course the same could be said about the Mets and Pelfrey. Doesn't it speak volumes that the Mets didn't even tender Pelfrey a contract? Your argument doesn't seem to work well since a team could only ever known the in depth analysis of one half of the decision. For the Twins they knew Baker but not Pelfrey. Why should I blindly follow the Twins decision when they didn't follow the Mets decision?

    No, I'll stick with my original statement. Baker was the better signing at the time the decisions were made. He was just as risky but he had considerably more upside.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    That is completely backwards. You sign someone for what you think they can do for you, not what they have done. The results are what makes it a good signing or not. The results are what validate your judgement. If the results meet your expectations then it is a good signing.
    What is known publicly matters little as there is a thing called privacy laws.
    Wise One, you seem to agree with me whether you can see it or not. Your second sentence is exactly what I'm saying. You sign someone because of what you think they bring to the table and then judge your results based on those assumptions. In fact you continuously reference the knowledge base at the time the decision was made when you use the words "validate your judgement" and "meet your expectations".

    As for Privacy Laws, it is impossible for me to know that which I cannot know, therefore I can only base my opinions upon that which is known to me. So, as I've asked you many times before, please help us understand the inside workings of the Twins decisions so that we too may benefit from their knowledge. Until you do however I can only base my opinions on my current knowledge.

  4. #24
    I still think they should be trying to bring Baker back home. He belongs in a Twins uniform. I don't really put a lot of value in Pelfrey being able to perform terribly last year. Him being on rehab assignments all year would have probably been better for the team.

  5. #25
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    Of course the same could be said about the Mets and Pelfrey. Doesn't it speak volumes that the Mets didn't even tender Pelfrey a contract? Your argument doesn't seem to work well since a team could only ever known the in depth analysis of one half of the decision. For the Twins they knew Baker but not Pelfrey. Why should I blindly follow the Twins decision when they didn't follow the Mets decision?

    No, I'll stick with my original statement. Baker was the better signing at the time the decisions were made. He was just as risky but he had considerably more upside.
    The Twins can only base a decision on what the Twins know. And given that they refused to sign Baker without a second year on the contract, I think it's pretty apparent that they didn't have much faith in Baker pitching in 2013.

    Which, coincidentally, he didn't do until September.

    As Nick brought up, Baker had more work done than a typical TJS. He's never been a particularly resilient guy. There was reason to suspect his timetable to return to the mound and that's without any of the information the Twins acquired on the guy over the years.

    Of course, there were reasons to suspect Pelfrey's timetable as well, if only because he accelerated it so much.

  6. #26
    Senior Member All-Star Boom Boom's Avatar
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    Just because Pelfrey was a better deal than Baker doesn't mean that the Twins needed to decide between one or the other. They could have signed neither, or both.

    I don't buy that the holdup with Baker was the 2nd year option. I think he genuinely wanted out.

  7. #27
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    I don't know that Pelfrey was a better signing than Baker last year. Sure he played, but poorly. Pelfrey's -.3 BBR WAR would suggest Baker would have been a better signing even if he had not thrown a pitch.

    If we can talk in terms like addition by subtraction, surely subtraction by addition exists.

  8. #28
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I don't know that Pelfrey was a better signing than Baker last year. Sure he played, but poorly. Pelfrey's -.3 BBR WAR would suggest Baker would have been a better signing even if he had not thrown a pitch.

    If we can talk in terms like addition by subtraction, surely subtraction by addition exists.
    I don't buy this one bit. If the Twins had better options than Pelfrey, they would have used them.

    The awful pitcher who logs innings is more valuable than the guy who doesn't pitch. I can only imagine the awful pitchers that would have donned a Twins uniform if Pelfrey hadn't pitched.

    The fact that Pelfrey was one of the top five starters in 2013 is an indictment of Ryan, not Mike.

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  10. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I don't buy this one bit. If the Twins had better options than Pelfrey, they would have used them.

    The awful pitcher who logs innings is more valuable than the guy who doesn't pitch. I can only imagine the awful pitchers that would have donned a Twins uniform if Pelfrey hadn't pitched.

    The fact that Pelfrey was one of the top five starters in 2013 is an indictment of Ryan, not Mike.
    I don't exactly disagree, but I don't like basing the judgment by innings pitched. His bad innings were not better than Baker's non-innings in my book. Pelfrey's disasterous April-May were a gigantic reason this team was out of contention after the first month of the season. Paying Baker to do nothing then using replacement player X likely at worst would have yielded the same results with a decent chance of yielding better results.

  11. #30
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I don't exactly disagree, but I don't like basing the judgment by innings pitched. His bad innings were not better than Baker's non-innings in my book. Pelfrey's disasterous April-May were a gigantic reason this team was out of contention after the first month of the season. Paying Baker to do nothing then using replacement player X likely at worst would have yielded the same results with a decent chance of yielding better results.
    On a good team, Pelfrey's 150 innings are virtually useless.

    On the 2013 Twins, they served a purpose... But that's part of the reason why the 2013 Twins were so bad. As awful as Mike pitched, he was still one of the five best pitchers on the 40 man roster.

    Again, picking up Pelfrey last season wasn't a bad move... If it was the third or fourth move. As the second move, it was absolutely atrocious. I'm not going to blame Pelfrey because Ryan didn't pick up legitimate talent that wasn't returning from surgery.

  12. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    Wise One, you seem to agree with me whether you can see it or not. Your second sentence is exactly what I'm saying. You sign someone because of what you think they bring to the table and then judge your results based on those assumptions. In fact you continuously reference the knowledge base at the time the decision was made when you use the words "validate your judgement" and "meet your expectations".

    As for Privacy Laws, it is impossible for me to know that which I cannot know, therefore I can only base my opinions upon that which is known to me. So, as I've asked you many times before, please help us understand the inside workings of the Twins decisions so that we too may benefit from their knowledge. Until you do however I can only base my opinions on my current knowledge.
    What would the Twin's expectations on Baker be? I can only quess they thought given his history that it would take most of the year to recover. I believe that is why they wanted the second year option. What was the expectation on Pelfrey. It is not unreasonable to think how the season played out for him was what you would expect. A rocky start, a decent middle and run out of gas. WAR is a useless number when it comes to assessing that.

    "A signing is either good or bad based upon what was known before the signing occured, not because of what happened after." Is not at all like what I said as I said the basis for judgement is the performance after the signing meeting what you thought it would.

  13. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by Marta Shearing View Post
    I dont blame the Twins FO one bit for thinking it was all in Baker's head. There always seemed to be something ailing Baker's arm, and the organization had grown tired of it. Baker may have better stuff than Pelfrey, but I'll take Pelfrey any day over Baker. He's durable. He's a gamer. He's not whiny and wimpy. And it seemed any time Baker got his pitch count in the 90's, his whole body language changed. Afterall, once you get close to 100, you're supposed to be tired, right? Classic new age "6 innings and I've done my job" pitcher.
    Ditto.

  14. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Baker career: 6.03 innings per start

    Pelfrey career: 5.89 innings per start
    Pinch hitting in the NL

  15. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfaninsaudi View Post
    Pinch hitting in the NL
    If you're getting pinch hit for before the 6th inning, you were almost certainly pitching terribly to begin with.

  16. #35
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    If you're getting pinch hit for before the 6th inning, you were almost certainly pitching terribly to begin with.
    Yep. Not to mention that every ninth batter in the NL is a free out (particularly in the first five innings), whereas that same ninth batter in the AL is probably a top three hitter in that lineup.

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