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Thread: Article: Pitching Prospect Profile: Sean Gilmartin

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfaninsaudi View Post
    Yes, and rightly so.

    Rightly...so.

    I see what you did there.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggentleben View Post
    As a Braves fan and writer, I've seen a lot of Gilmartin, and last year it wasn't just the velocity. He lost feel and touch on all his pitches, and it sounds like this is a shoulder injury that could be one of things that never goes away fully, meaning days of 91-92 and sharp-breaking junk may simply be gone. I know he had slipped to 14 in the Braves system in our ranks, and that's a bottom tier system right now, so you're talking a prospect who's likely 350-450 overall in baseball. Not that Doumit was exactly lighting the world on fire, but Gilmartin was basically throwaway fodder for the Braves. It'd be nice for the Twins if he could recover some of what he once was, but everything I've seen, read, and heard says Gilmartin is likely never that guy again fully.
    I may be wrong, but I do not believe you can deal damaged goods. If they were open and honest and the Twins bought that's one thing, but MLB isn't a buyer's beware situation.

    Edit: Mayo just ranked him as the Twin's 13th rated prospect.
    Last edited by howieramone; 12-20-2013 at 12:46 AM.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    I may be wrong, but I do not believe you can deal damaged goods. If they were open and honest and the Twins bought that's one thing, but MLB isn't a buyer's beware situation.

    Edit: Mayo just ranked him as the Twin's 13th rated prospect.
    Damaged goods can be dealt all the time. That's part of buying low. The Twins under Ryan have been very good at scouting other team's sytem, so like you, I think this was a good move even if Gilmartin fails miserably.

    That said, I don't see the logic in Mayo's ranking, and that comes from a guy who places far more weight in success at higher levels. Gilmartin is a huge risk with that shoulder. I think the reward is potentially nice, but not one where I'd put him in my top 20. If he bounces back this season and is throwing in the low 90s again, great.

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Given this system, 13 seems pretty high. And I'm a guy that values upper level success over potential.

    It all hinges on his velocity. If he can get back to 90, he could crack the Twins' top ten. If he's at 86-87 for eternity, he's in the 20s somewhere.

  5. #25
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggentleben View Post
    It'd be nice for the Twins if he could recover some of what he once was, but everything I've seen, read, and heard says Gilmartin is likely never that guy again fully.
    This feels a bit like Braves fans trying to wash their hands of it. While it's a possibility, I'm not seeing how a summer of tendinitis turns into a determination that he can never recover from it.

  6. #26
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    I said this in a previous thread but dang, I don't see how anyone could not like this for the Twins. We're not likely to compete in 2014 unless a .500 record gets you in the wildcard (which it won't). I didn't expect to get much of anything and we get a guy who is a year removed from playing three levels and being effective. Is he a world changer? No. Could he be a solid mid to back of the rotation starter? Yes. I put him above most of the guys we trotted out there last year like Albers, Diamond, etc. He's a nice little wild card that could contribute.

    I also like his chance to convert to the pen if starting doesn't work out. Best bullpen guys are failed starters as we've all seen. Maybe he pulls a perk and adds a couple ticks to his fastball out of the pen. Suddenly that changeup becomes deadly.

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by biggentleben View Post
    As a Braves fan and writer, I've seen a lot of Gilmartin, and last year it wasn't just the velocity. He lost feel and touch on all his pitches, and it sounds like this is a shoulder injury that could be one of things that never goes away fully, meaning days of 91-92 and sharp-breaking junk may simply be gone. I know he had slipped to 14 in the Braves system in our ranks, and that's a bottom tier system right now, so you're talking a prospect who's likely 350-450 overall in baseball. Not that Doumit was exactly lighting the world on fire, but Gilmartin was basically throwaway fodder for the Braves. It'd be nice for the Twins if he could recover some of what he once was, but everything I've seen, read, and heard says Gilmartin is likely never that guy again fully.
    Thanks for this info. I watched a video of him throwing and was wondering why he was considered a "soft tossing lefty". Not sure when the video was shot, but he was consistently 91-92 with his fastball. Off speed looked sharp as well. I don't think the Braves would let someone like that go--your comments seem to provide the answer.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    ]It all hinges on his velocity. If he can get back to 90, he could crack the Twins' top ten. If he's at 86-87 for eternity, he's in the 20s somewhere.
    Yeah, I don't see any reasonable basis for that ranking. The guy has to show he can throw again. Shoulder injuries are tricky and can be devastating. If he had come back and got some of that velocity back late last year, that would make some sense.

    But a mid 80's velocity fastball with poor control is the last we saw of him. That should matter a lot. All that said, what makes this a smart move is that if the shoulder injury is fully healed, we've got a solid arm that we acquired at only the price of an aging, redundant player. We can all hope for that outcome, but right now he's still damaged goods.

  9. #29
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer biggentleben's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    This feels a bit like Braves fans trying to wash their hands of it. While it's a possibility, I'm not seeing how a summer of tendinitis turns into a determination that he can never recover from it.
    Except that no one I've heard that from has any paid association with the Braves. Gilmartin came off as a Minor-lite when he was drafted, but watching him last year was just simply different. He completely lost the feel for creating the break on his pitches that once gave him elite movement and secondary stuff. That may never return.
    Staff Writer for Tomahawktake.com, come check it out!

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lefty74 View Post
    Thanks for this info. I watched a video of him throwing and was wondering why he was considered a "soft tossing lefty". Not sure when the video was shot, but he was consistently 91-92 with his fastball. Off speed looked sharp as well. I don't think the Braves would let someone like that go--your comments seem to provide the answer.
    From a non-Braves standpoint, that'd be the thing that'd raise the biggest red flag for me. Wren simply refuses to move a solid pitcher unless he's overwhelmed with return (like getting Justin Upton), or he believes a guy's actual value is much lower than his perceived value in the industry (like Arodys Vizcaino). Sometimes that guy can re-establish value, but often those guys turn into little or nothing if the Braves are willing to move him.
    Staff Writer for Tomahawktake.com, come check it out!

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    I may be wrong, but I do not believe you can deal damaged goods. If they were open and honest and the Twins bought that's one thing, but MLB isn't a buyer's beware situation.

    Edit: Mayo just ranked him as the Twin's 13th rated prospect.
    That lofty ranking is because Mayo is the very last stubborn holdout amongst those analysts who previously had given Gilmartin his lofty rankings within the Braves system (He kept Gilmartin as the #4 Braves prospect when everyone else bailed). For the rest of the prospect analysts, Gilmartin's ship has already sailed.

    I hope Mayo turns out to be the maritime hero and proven right, but at this point, there are a lot more questions than answers on Gilmartin's return to even sea level form.
    Last edited by jokin; 12-20-2013 at 06:08 PM.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    Great move! With Kris Johnson and now Gilmartin, it looks like they're rethinking the pecking order and roles of our lefties.
    Yep. Some of our lefties will soon have no role

  13. #33
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    Maybe it's just me, but I don't put a lot of stock into scouting reports about defense. I don't think most scouts see players enough to make a really accurate assessment. I could be wrong about this, but it seems a lot of players come with a degree of hype that is rarely deserved.

    It makes sense too, if you are watching a pitchers mechanics, seeing them 2 or 3 times gives you dozens to hundreds of data points. Seeing a hitter for 2-3 games gives you dozens of data points about their swing mechanics. But how many data points do you get on how a guy moves to his left at SS. Or how he reads lines drives in the RF gap?

    Delmon Young and many, many others have shown us that guys can come with a lot of undue hype just because hype is the way scouts and websites sell themselves. I'm more convinced by what I see from them than what I hear about them. And what I saw from Arcia was not good.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Given this system, 13 seems pretty high. And I'm a guy that values upper level success over potential.

    It all hinges on his velocity. If he can get back to 90, he could crack the Twins' top ten. If he's at 86-87 for eternity, he's in the 20s somewhere.
    If his velocity stays at 86-87 he's barely a top 50 prospect.

    The problem with everyone's optimism is that in his 'good' season he still only struck out 6.5 batters/inning in AA.

  15. #35
    To me this is a gamble. I don't think Gilmartin is gonna make it but why not take a shot at a left hander with this kind of stuff when healthy.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    If his velocity stays at 86-87 he's barely a top 50 prospect.

    The problem with everyone's optimism is that in his 'good' season he still only struck out 6.5 batters/inning in AA.
    By the time you hit "prospect" #25 in any organization, they're barely prospects at all. At that point, why do you even care?

    Call him prospect #28 because he was a first round pick. Call him prospect #43 because he can't throw over 86mph. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter one bit. The guy has about a 1% chance of ever playing more than a couple of games in MLB.

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    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    By the time you hit "prospect" #25 in any organization, they're barely prospects at all. At that point, why do you even care?

    Call him prospect #28 because he was a first round pick. Call him prospect #43 because he can't throw over 86mph. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter one bit. The guy has about a 1% chance of ever playing more than a couple of games in MLB.
    Agree to disagree???

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Given this system, 13 seems pretty high. And I'm a guy that values upper level success over potential.

    It all hinges on his velocity. If he can get back to 90, he could crack the Twins' top ten. If he's at 86-87 for eternity, he's in the 20s somewhere.
    He's a richer version of Matt Thomshaw. Great location with low 90s fastball. Thomshaw has several pitches and knows how to locate. Although we may be getting away from the "Pitch to contact" philosophy - It aint all bad. Some of those guys in your bullpen make for a nice change of pace in situational cases. Thomshaw is my sleeper in the Twins system this year. Nothing fancy - just results.

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    I may be wrong, but I do not believe you can deal damaged goods. If they were open and honest and the Twins bought that's one thing, but MLB isn't a buyer's beware situation.

    Edit: Mayo just ranked him as the Twin's 13th rated prospect.
    Didnt Vance Worley finish the 2012 season on the DL and then need to have bone chips removed during the off season?

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    By the time you hit "prospect" #25 in any organization, they're barely prospects at all. At that point, why do you even care?

    Call him prospect #28 because he was a first round pick. Call him prospect #43 because he can't throw over 86mph. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter one bit. The guy has about a 1% chance of ever playing more than a couple of games in MLB.
    When I think of a top 25 prospect in a strong and deep org I typically think of someone that is interesting in some way - tonkin/Goodrum/Jorge/ZJones. Gilmartin throwing 86-87 is completely uninteresting. If it helps maybe I should say he's not a prospect at that point.

  21. This user likes kab21's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

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