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Thread: Danny Valencia traded to Royals

  1. #21
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Except that we don't even know if he's a quality platoon candidate, as evidenced by his .405 (!) BABIP against lefties, which is surely going to plummet.

    What happens if that BABIP normalizes? Is he still a good platoon player? In this case, he probably is but he's not going to be nearly as good as he was in 2013.

    Not to mention that right-handed platoon players are marginalized to begin with, as it's so easy for teams to negate his split advantage after 5-6 innings. Also, LHP starters are far more uncommon than their right-handed equivalents. If Valencia is going to play at all, he's going to get 30-40% of his ABs against RHP.

    Platoons are great when they work but the left-handed hitter in a platoon is going to be far more valuable than the right-handed hitter in the same platoon.
    His career splits still indicate a guy that could hit lefties very well. You couple that with Moustakas and you might have a nice little fit.

    All they did was swap similar players with different positions. If you want to hop aboard the "Bash Dayton Moore" train, that left the Omar Infante station a few days ago. But this ain't it.

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  3. #22
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    His career splits still indicate a guy that could hit lefties very well. You couple that with Moustakas and you might have a nice little fit.

    All they did was swap similar players with different positions. If you want to hop aboard the "Bash Dayton Moore" train, that left the Omar Infante station a few days ago. But this ain't it.
    Heh, Omar Infante.

    I don't like many (maybe even most) of Moore's decisions. But I'm not trying to bash Moore... I'm taking more of a swing at the people who think Danny Valencia was some kind of brilliant acquisition by Duquette.

    The Orioles got lucky with Valencia in 2013. The smartest thing Duquette did was realize that fact and shoo Danny out of town before anyone else noticed.

  4. #23
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post

    Giving up anything of value for Danny Valencia, a guy who had all of ~170 PAs last season and succeeded (again) based on an unsustainibly high BABIP of .339, is almost comical.

    The only time Valencia has had success in this league is when his BABIP is well outside the norm..
    What's Buxton's BABIP again?

    There is no such a thing as a normal BABIP for hitters and you can compare hitter's BABIPs only to the ones of other seasons of that hitter. Valencia averaged BABIP throughout his career (in the majors and minors) has been well in the .300s with the exception of 2012 (.222) and 2011 (.275). That is about 8 seasons, which suggests that 2011 and 2012 might be the aberration here. Maybe something was up with him that was not there in 2013 or maybe he made swing adjustments or "got it" in 2013. If you look at his 2013 numbers, his BABIP was above .300 in both MLB and AAA and (even more importantly maybe) his isoP was close to .250 (career high) in both leagues (for reference his isoP with the Twins was .137 each of his 2 seasons)

    I guess the Royals took a bet that this is the case. We shall find out.
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  6. #24
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    What's Buxton's BABIP again?

    There is no such a thing as a normal BABIP for hitters and you can compare hitter's BABIPs only to the ones of other seasons of that hitter. Valencia averaged BABIP throughout his career (in the majors and minors) has been well in the .300s with the exception of 2012 (.222) and 2011 (.275). That is about 8 seasons, which suggests that 2011 and 2012 might be the aberration here. Maybe something was up with him that was not there in 2013 or maybe he made swing adjustments or "got it" in 2013. If you look at his 2013 numbers, his BABIP was above .300 in both MLB and AAA and (even more importantly maybe) his isoP was close to .250 (career high) in both leagues (for reference his isoP with the Twins was .137 each of his 2 seasons)

    I guess the Royals took a bet that this is the case. We shall find out.
    There are a couple of traits common with players who routinely have above-average BABIPs. Byron Buxton has speed. It's a great ability to have but also one of the first to go in a MLB player's career. Put the ball on the ground to the left side of the infield and there's a good chance he beats it out. The other end of the spectrum are the Joe Mauers and Paul Molitors of the world. Guys who simply do not swing at pitches they cannot hit and when they do swing, almost always make contact.

    Danny Valencia has neither of those traits.

  7. #25
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    There are a couple of traits common with players who routinely have above-average BABIPs. Byron Buxton has speed. It's a great ability to have but also one of the first to go in a MLB player's career. Put the ball on the ground to the left side of the infield and there's a good chance he beats it out. The other end of the spectrum are the Joe Mauers and Paul Molitors of the world. Guys who simply do not swing at pitches they cannot hit and when they do swing, almost always make contact.

    Danny Valencia has neither of those traits.
    It is individual. Check the career BABIPs of these former Twins:

    Non selective and slow guys:
    Scott Stahoviak: .324, Marty Cordova: .314, Corey Koskie: .323, AJ Pierzinski .330 (while with the Twins)

    Selective and Speedy guys:
    Matt Lawton: .281

    I'd say that Stahoviak might be a good Valencia comparable
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  8. #26
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    It is individual. Check the career BABIPs of these former Twins:

    Non selective and slow guys:
    Scott Stahoviak: .324, Marty Cordova: .314, Corey Koskie: .323, AJ Pierzinski .330 (while with the Twins)

    Selective and Speedy guys:
    Matt Lawton: .281

    I'd say that Stahoviak might be a good Valencia comparable
    Hah!

    Hey, maybe Valencia is an outlier. It's definitely possible, I'm merely suggesting that given his makeup, it's not likely that he can sustain a perennial .330 BABIP.

  9. #27
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    But you're still ignoring that Lough also sucks. And don't even try to spin it that Lough sucks less. He sucks and isn't anything more than a bad 4th OF'er.

  10. #28
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    I didn't realize that a 27 year old who plays decent outfield defense and posted a rookie season OPS+ of 96 was such a drag on a roster.

    Wait. The Twins could totally use one of those guys right now.

  11. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by big dog View Post
    A smart GM always tries to trade with the Royals.
    It's probably worth a shot at a pretty cheap price for KC to try DannyV as (at least a part-time) platoon partner for Melotakis @ 3B. Melotakis' career split vs. LHP is OPS .606 and in 2013 it was OPS.546. Valencia hit LHP OPS .1031 in 2013 and has hit OPS .879 career versus LHP.

  12. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I didn't realize that a 27 year old who plays decent outfield defense and posted a rookie season OPS+ of 96 was such a drag on a roster.

    Wait. The Twins could totally use one of those guys right now.
    LOL

    Was ranked 6th overall in OF defense, pre-Arb for the next 2 years, and a fighting chance that his bat is better than everyone on the Twins 2014 roster except Arcia.

  13. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Hah!

    Hey, maybe Valencia is an outlier. It's definitely possible, I'm merely suggesting that given his makeup, it's not likely that he can sustain a perennial .330 BABIP.
    Anyone with a career .879 OPS LHP split, with a BABIP-tastic career BABIP of .357 vs. LHP (2 years over .400 BABIP, 2010 and 2013), is worth a small gamble in a platoon-heavy role. No doubt that DannyV is a VERY limited player, but he is pretty darn good at what little he clearly does well.

  14. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    It's probably worth a shot at a pretty cheap price for KC to try DannyV as (at least a part-time) platoon partner for Melotakis @ 3B. Melotakis' career split vs. LHP is OPS .606 and in 2013 it was OPS.546. Valencia hit LHP OPS .1031 in 2013 and has hit OPS .879 career versus LHP.
    One problem with that is no one trusts him at third. He was a dh for the sox and orioles for a reason. He was a bad fielder for the twins. Will the royals get value from him at third? It will be fun to watch people bunt on him if they try.

    Platoon at dh? Might be worth a try.
    Last edited by big dog; 12-19-2013 at 09:34 PM.

  15. #33
    Senior Member Triple-A Danchat's Avatar
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    Great conversation, guys.
    I just found it hilarious when a random Royals fan commented that "Danny Valencia is a good defender". I laughed for 4 straight minutes and then did a "wait... is he serious?"
    Lough's defense at the very least makes him better.

  16. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by big dog View Post
    One problem with that is no one trusts him at third. He was a dh for the sox and orioles for a reason. He was a bad fielder for the twins. Will the royals get value from him at third? It will be fun to watch people bunt on him if they try.

    Platoon at dh? Might be worth a try.
    FWIW- he played 10 games at 3B for the Red Sox and didn't DH. But no doubt, he's not a good defender, but Moustakas is awful against LHP, so giving Moustakas a day or perhaps occasionally two off per week probably isn't worse than a wash. Plus, you can still platoon at DH DannyV and also have his pinch hit bat.

  17. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Heh, Omar Infante.

    I don't like many (maybe even most) of Moore's decisions. But I'm not trying to bash Moore... I'm taking more of a swing at the people who think Danny Valencia was some kind of brilliant acquisition by Duquette.

    The Orioles got lucky with Valencia in 2013. The smartest thing Duquette did was realize that fact and shoo Danny out of town before anyone else noticed.
    Noticing that a FA guy who once finished 3rd in ROY, and had a career OPS of .879 against lefties doesn't make Duquette brilliant, but it does make him smart for taking a chance on him as a no-risk guy you can stash in the minor leagues on the off-hand chance that he would find his stroke, and then- here's where the brilliant actually comes into play- carefully inserting him in your lineup where he best has the chance to succeed, and when he does, flipping that lighning in a bottle for someone with more upside, at 3-years of cost-controlled minimum wage, who fills a hole that would have cost you $16.5M to keep the alternative (McClouth).
    Last edited by jokin; 12-19-2013 at 10:37 PM.

  18. #36
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Noticing that a FA guy who once finished 3rd in ROY, and had a career OPS of .879 against lefties doesn't make Duquette brilliant, but it does make him smart for taking a chance on him as a no-risk guy you can stash in the minor leagues on the off-hand chance that he would find his stroke, and then- here's where the brilliant actually comes into play- carefully inserting him in your lineup where he best has the chance to succeed, and when he does, flipping that lighning in a bottle for someone with more upside, at 3-years of cost-controlled minimum wage, who fills a hole that would have cost you $16.5M to keep the alternative (McClouth).
    Sure, picking up Valencia was an okay move. The thing is that without that absurd BABIP and essentially getting lucky, Valencia is a really marginal player.

    First, he's the wrong side of a platoon. No matter what you do, the guy is going to take many of his ABs against RHP. It's inevitable and you can basically write off any ABs he takes after the sixth inning. There is no reason he should ever face a lefty out of the bullpen. Ever.

    Second, he's an awful defender at third.

    Will it work out for the Royals? Sure, Valencia may get lucky and post an absurd BABIP against lefties again. Is it likely that it will work out? No, probably not.

    I'm still floored that Duquette was able to get anything for a guy with 170 PAs in 2013, much less what looks to be a decent fourth outfielder. Every single stat line in Valencia's 2013 SSS screams regression in a big, bad way. Well, except for his BABIP against RHP. But that's not exactly the stat line you want to see up on the upswing in a platoon player.

    Also, it should be noted that the Orioles didn't do a particularly good job of protecting Valencia against righties, which puts into the question their "setting him up to succeed". Valencia had 102 PAs against lefties, 68 PAs against righties. Sure, it's hard to protect a RHB platoon against righties but at a glance, it doesn't look like the Orioles even tried that hard to do it. 68 PAs is 40% of his total PAs in 2013.

    Again, Duquette made a marginal move and got really lucky with it. The smartest thing he did was recognize that luck and flipped that player for something before he regressed.

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