12-19-2013, 11:25 AM #21
All they did was swap similar players with different positions. If you want to hop aboard the "Bash Dayton Moore" train, that left the Omar Infante station a few days ago. But this ain't it.
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12-19-2013, 11:30 AM #22
I don't like many (maybe even most) of Moore's decisions. But I'm not trying to bash Moore... I'm taking more of a swing at the people who think Danny Valencia was some kind of brilliant acquisition by Duquette.
The Orioles got lucky with Valencia in 2013. The smartest thing Duquette did was realize that fact and shoo Danny out of town before anyone else noticed.
12-19-2013, 11:41 AM #23
There is no such a thing as a normal BABIP for hitters and you can compare hitter's BABIPs only to the ones of other seasons of that hitter. Valencia averaged BABIP throughout his career (in the majors and minors) has been well in the .300s with the exception of 2012 (.222) and 2011 (.275). That is about 8 seasons, which suggests that 2011 and 2012 might be the aberration here. Maybe something was up with him that was not there in 2013 or maybe he made swing adjustments or "got it" in 2013. If you look at his 2013 numbers, his BABIP was above .300 in both MLB and AAA and (even more importantly maybe) his isoP was close to .250 (career high) in both leagues (for reference his isoP with the Twins was .137 each of his 2 seasons)
I guess the Royals took a bet that this is the case. We shall find out.
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12-19-2013, 11:44 AM #24
Danny Valencia has neither of those traits.
12-19-2013, 12:09 PM #25
Non selective and slow guys:
Scott Stahoviak: .324, Marty Cordova: .314, Corey Koskie: .323, AJ Pierzinski .330 (while with the Twins)
Selective and Speedy guys:
Matt Lawton: .281
I'd say that Stahoviak might be a good Valencia comparable
12-19-2013, 12:13 PM #26
12-19-2013, 07:25 PM #27
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But you're still ignoring that Lough also sucks. And don't even try to spin it that Lough sucks less. He sucks and isn't anything more than a bad 4th OF'er.
12-19-2013, 08:08 PM #28
I didn't realize that a 27 year old who plays decent outfield defense and posted a rookie season OPS+ of 96 was such a drag on a roster.
Wait. The Twins could totally use one of those guys right now.
12-19-2013, 09:07 PM #29
12-19-2013, 09:13 PM #30
12-19-2013, 09:25 PM #31
12-19-2013, 09:31 PM #32
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Platoon at dh? Might be worth a try.
Last edited by big dog; 12-19-2013 at 09:34 PM.
12-19-2013, 09:47 PM #33
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Great conversation, guys.
I just found it hilarious when a random Royals fan commented that "Danny Valencia is a good defender". I laughed for 4 straight minutes and then did a "wait... is he serious?"
Lough's defense at the very least makes him better.
12-19-2013, 10:26 PM #34
12-19-2013, 10:33 PM #35
Last edited by jokin; 12-19-2013 at 10:37 PM.
12-20-2013, 07:21 AM #36
First, he's the wrong side of a platoon. No matter what you do, the guy is going to take many of his ABs against RHP. It's inevitable and you can basically write off any ABs he takes after the sixth inning. There is no reason he should ever face a lefty out of the bullpen. Ever.
Second, he's an awful defender at third.
Will it work out for the Royals? Sure, Valencia may get lucky and post an absurd BABIP against lefties again. Is it likely that it will work out? No, probably not.
I'm still floored that Duquette was able to get anything for a guy with 170 PAs in 2013, much less what looks to be a decent fourth outfielder. Every single stat line in Valencia's 2013 SSS screams regression in a big, bad way. Well, except for his BABIP against RHP. But that's not exactly the stat line you want to see up on the upswing in a platoon player.
Also, it should be noted that the Orioles didn't do a particularly good job of protecting Valencia against righties, which puts into the question their "setting him up to succeed". Valencia had 102 PAs against lefties, 68 PAs against righties. Sure, it's hard to protect a RHB platoon against righties but at a glance, it doesn't look like the Orioles even tried that hard to do it. 68 PAs is 40% of his total PAs in 2013.
Again, Duquette made a marginal move and got really lucky with it. The smartest thing he did was recognize that luck and flipped that player for something before he regressed.