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Thread: Article: On Terry Ryan, Truth And Gravity

  1. #21
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready View Post
    He was crucified here any many went off on how much better Marcum, Dempsey, Saunders, Jackson, etc would have been. Well, who was right?
    We were. We were right

    Row Labels Sum of IP Average of ERA Average of FIP Average of xFIP Average of WAR
    Marcum,Dempster,Saunders,Jackson 607.30 5.03 4.21 4.13 1.28
    Albers,Walters,Gibson,Hendriks,Hernandez,Worley,De Vries 316.60 6.89 5.59 5.05 -0.01

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  3. #22
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    Or 7.66 x Kirbys annual amount....ok Now riddle me this, how much have ticket prices increased since then? How much has revenue increased? How many more avenues of revenue werent avalible back then?

  4. #23
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    The main difference between this year and last year is the depth of the free agent pitching pool. Because the class had few quality arms beyond the top two, the whole class was overvalued, by the rule of supply and demand. So lots of guys got a lot more money than they deserved, and the Twins should be credited for not going after them.

    At the time, Ryan was quoted as saying he thought the class was "thin", and he did not want to spend money unwisely just for the sake of spending money. It turns out he was right about this, and you can hardly argue that the FA class heading into 2013 was much better than he said it was at the time based on the stats they put up.

    Since this is the 46th thread about how cheap Ryan was last year, I assume I am missing something. Please enlighten me.

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  6. #24
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    Actually, he was right for one year....what if Marcum is healthy this year, and good? Will you all come on and say he was wrong?

    And, man, this went off topic to the same old arguments fast....it had the chance to be a fun thread.
    Lighten up Francis....

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  8. #25
    Senior Member All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    I like these kinds of discussion. One of the problems I've had with criticism of the Front Office is the assumption that we are all working from the same data. While data is already finite, each of our access to that data is even more limited. Simply put, the Twins FO has more data to work with than we do. From medical reports to their own scouting reports to pay-for-data services, there's so much more information available to the Twins to make discerning moves (whether they discern appropriately, well, that's up for debate, and such judgments usually come with only hindsight).

    To answer the question of why not spend last year, I think is two fold, and John approached these. 1) the Twins didn't like the pitchers available last year at the prices the market set 2) it was one more year removed from what help would come from the minors. To answer the question of why spend this year: 1) we were unthinkably awful again last year 2) our young talent on the ML roster fell flat on their face 3) the minor league system looks like it might produce impact players sooner than expected. In both these instances, I think the budget played a limited role in their thinking.

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  10. #26
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    The main difference between this year and last year is the depth of the free agent pitching pool.
    Speaking of facts and perception - I wonder how one would try to measure this. I'm not sure it's that important to the discussion, because what is important is Ryan's perception of that free agent pitching pool. But my perception is completely the opposite. I don't think last year's was worse.

    I tried to show this before last offseason started, by comparing it to the previous five years, using the dollars likely to be thrown at them (and still underthrew the mark on those dollars considerably). But I suppose one could say that the dollars show how thin it was, though I would disagree.

    I wonder how we could do that. Maybe compare some basic metrics from teh year before for each pitcher?

  11. #27
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    We were. We were right

    Row Labels Sum of IP Average of ERA Average of FIP Average of xFIP Average of WAR
    Marcum,Dempster,Saunders,Jackson 607.30 5.03 4.21 4.13 1.28
    Albers,Walters,Gibson,Hendriks,Hernandez,Worley,De Vries 316.60 6.89 5.59 5.05 -0.01
    In light of the reality that we signed Correia and Pelfry instead of those four, why would you ignore their production?

    Also, are there some remaining financial obligations to any of those four that would make it logical to wait to draw a conclusion?

  12. #28
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    When it comes to looking at the Twins, looking for the truth is filtered by the observer bias.

  13. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    We were. We were right

    Row Labels Sum of IP Average of ERA Average of FIP Average of xFIP Average of WAR
    Marcum,Dempster,Saunders,Jackson 607.30 5.03 4.21 4.13 1.28
    Albers,Walters,Gibson,Hendriks,Hernandez,Worley,De Vries 316.60 6.89 5.59 5.05 -0.01
    When looking at free agent signings Pelfrey and Correia pitched 338 IP and combined for a 4.65 ERA. Try to find two pitchers that signed short term contracts similar to those two for comparison.

  14. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    Nice article, John. But I question your statement that the top "fact" is that the Twins were in the exact same situation last year. It seems reasonable to conclude, based on Ryan's quote here, that he might dispute this. So much of why some of us cut Ryan more slack and others are harshly critical stems from our amazing ability to see the "facts" so differently, or to create a fact set that supports our agenda.

    Regardless, it sure is nice to witness the "fact" that Ryan admits to having resources, admits to having opportunities, and admits to being in the right time to act.
    In other words, in "discovering" these "facts", Ryan is admitting that his Plan A was a colossal failure on the field, anyway (Financially, they did just fine, hollowing out the team, failing to use short-term contracts for flipping purposes....... Going forward, I've got a strong feeling the financials didn't look nearly as good, but for the "found" $25M in media money, hence, "Time for implementing the Plan B!.... just ignore that we said it was next to impossible, just a year ago") .
    Last edited by jokin; 12-13-2013 at 05:43 PM.

  15. #31
    I think Fans were looking for even better signings than four listed above. Like Sanchez, Santanna, kuroda, and Brandon McCarthy ( not that good last year but still better than Twins pitching). If the Twins had invested in top of tier free agency pitching Say grienke and Sanchez the cost per year would have been 40 million per year seeming a lot of money but look we already have invested this year 20 million so far this year and if we add another free agent will put us close to 30 million. But these two pitchers would have provided us top number 1 and 2 pitcher for several years to come. If we go through another round of inflation on pitching it probably mean cost of these pitchers will start to look like a bargain. Both young pitchers that would be going through prime of pitching years. Also we wouldn't have given up any prospects to acquire this pitching. If figures were correct this would have put the Twins at little over 100 million with 30 million left to fill in other needs and Twins would have been competitive in this division. Also these contracts would be expiring at time some of better prospects would begin to start to cost us money. This still doesn't mean we couldn't trade these players down road for other prospects or needs in players. Tell me what the Attendance would have been with winning team this past year and also added tv revenue that would have come from being playoff team. Subtract that from their salaries and tell me what the excitement level would be around the Twins organization would be. How many season tickets would be sold, club uniforms and etc., and also tv revenue. Tell me how excited fan base would be with all prospects coming and team already able to compete.

    This is what Seattle is trying to do jump start their franchise and they are paying much more premium to do this with 10 year contracts instead of 6 year contract and 5 year contract. I think Twins are going to get their now but its much more difficult road they are traveling maybe little less risky. The Twins are not bottom small market team they are middle to upper middle revenue team if they get good product on the field. They have potential to draw substantially over 3 million,they have large fan base in the Midwest and spread over US, and this would also relate to Tv viewership and merchandise etc. Also this fan base is loyal and follows the Twins willing to travel hundreds of miles to watch them if they have good product to watch. The Twins are unique market in baseball their much more a regional team than most of other teams in baseball a smaller version of Red Sox. If you look at Tv market they have Twin Cities plus tv markets in North Dakota, South Dakota, large part of Iowa, parts of Montanna, as well as greater Minnesota. They also draw Canadians that like to watch MLB especially when Toronto is playing because its closest drive for many western Canadians to watch baseball. I think press in Twins Cities doesn't realize and many Twin City residents that the Twins draw is much larger than Metro area and this why it always amazes marketing people that Twin Cities can support four Pro teams to extent they do its because they are regional draw for pro sports. So much said of this The Twins have money if they so choose to spend it and develop a contending team. I think Twins if they invested so much back like they talked to into team from revenue could be a contending team year in year out if continued to develop players and uses FA to fill in gaps when they are unable to develop right kind of player.

  16. #32
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    When looking at free agent signings Pelfrey and Correia pitched 338 IP and combined for a 4.65 ERA. Try to find two pitchers that signed short term contracts similar to those two for comparison.
    So what?

    Really.

    What Ryan did was to make a 96 loss team to another 96 loss team.

    Or do IP matter more?
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  17. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    So what?

    Really.

    What Ryan did was to make a 96 loss team to another 96 loss team.

    Or do IP matter more?
    Guilty of observer bias.

  18. #34
    Senior Member Triple-A Teflon's Avatar
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    The Twins have an extra $25 million for 2014 thanks to the new national TV deals MLB negotiated. Since that more than covers the per annum expense of Nolasco and Hughes, you can't say the Twins are digging deep in their pockets to make these acquisitions - so, no, I don't think their philosophy is changing. The just happened to be walking by the liquor store and found a $20 on the sidewalk.

  19. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    So what?

    Really.

    What Ryan did was to make a 96 loss team to another 96 loss team.

    Or do IP matter more?
    If you took 4 pitchers that put up the seasons that Marcum, Dempster, Jackson and Saunders had in place of the fill in pitchers Willihammer listed and the two signed by Ryan as FA to nearly balance out innings pitched between the two groups, you still have a 96 loss team. The claim that Ryan was right to be crucified because he didn't sign these guys is not proven.

  20. #36
    Sorry I'm A big Zen Fan. Great book I reread it every year. It really helps my teaching.

    The Twins needed to change. They are changing.....

  21. #37
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    The claim that Ryan was right to be crucified because he didn't sign these guys is not proven.
    Agreed.

    Still Ryan should be out because he led the team to 2 consecutive 96 loss seasons. Not a single move or a set of moves or non-moves. Just because of the awful results.
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  22. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    In other words, in "discovering" these "facts", Ryan is admitting that his Plan A was a colossal failure on the field, anyway (Financially, they did just fine, hollowing out the team, failing to use short-term contracts for flipping purposes....... Going forward, I've got a strong feeling the financials didn't look nearly as good, but for the "found" $25M in media money, hence, "Time for implementing the Plan B!.... just ignore that we said it was next to impossible, just a year ago") .
    I think Ryan's plan A last year was rebuilding. I also don't think he was going to come out and say it (right or wrong, that's a different debate). The class was really weak, and as much as we slammed him for KC/Pelfrey, those are looking like pretty good moves in hindsight. He's already spent that 25M in found money and based on the rumors, it doesn't sound like the Twins are done. Given what they have coming up the pipe, I think they should be done other than some low risk/high reward type deals. They've added 2 guys that should be able to stabilize the rotation in 2015/16, which is what the next wave was going to need.

  23. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    Or 7.66 x Kirbys annual amount....ok Now riddle me this, how much have ticket prices increased since then? How much has revenue increased? How many more avenues of revenue werent avalible back then?
    This is yet another example of completely ignoring the point. As stated previously, some have pointed to Kirby’s deal as proof that the Twins were able to pull-off large free agents deals prior to the Terry Ryan era. For starters, it is quite different to retain a FA as compared to signing one on the open market. In addition, Mauer’s deal was also for 8/184 taking him through age 35. Kirby’s deal was 3/$9m through age 31. If you know the team’s history this well, how on earth do you not recognize Joe Mauer’s deal when making this point. Plus, Mauer’s deal was far and away a much bigger commitment even in price adjusted terms given the number of years. In keeping with the theme of this thread, even the most obvious examples are ignored when FANS have a point of view.

    The 7.66X was offered only to put the deal in relative terms. Obviously, ticket prices have gone up since 1989. Have they gone up enough that Mauer’s contracts is less of a financial burden? I doubt it. I could not find the average ticket price in 1989 but the average ticket price was 31.49 when Target field opened. In relative terms the average ticket price would have had to have been less than $4.11 to explain an increased capacity to spend. (31.49/7.66=$4.11.) I would guess the average ticket price has gone up by 3-4X.

  24. #40
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    Joe Mauers contract , was not Just about production..It is about being a home town hero.
    While I thought it was a bit long. We can see the team has recouped the value of his contract.
    The Twins now have a big payday in MLB-tv revenue, which they didnt have in 89, also this year a 30+ million bump from the all star game, My point was as contracts go up so do revenue, since selig took over revenue has gone up over 600% while players salaries have gone up 435%

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