12-13-2013, 03:50 PM #81
Here's one way to look at it that I don't think has been mentioned.
If you polled all 30 General Managers, how many would choose one versus the other. In the case of Sano-Price, off the top of my head, I think I'd say 20-25 would choose Sano. If someone wants to take stab at that, it might make for a fun way to spend 15 minutes this offseason.
12-13-2013, 04:10 PM #82
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Without an extension, all 30 take Sano, no question.
With a reasonable extension, 25 or so take Sano, but of course we don't have enough information to make a precise estimate.
Some posters have been looking forward and assuming Sano comes up and establishes himself as a top young player. In that instance, all 30 would again prefer Sano, without a doubt.
12-13-2013, 04:29 PM #83
12-13-2013, 06:10 PM #84
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I'm confident that all 30 would take Sano as of today. The reason is straightforward - once a team had Sano, they would easily be able to trade him for Price, or Cliff Lee, or another top starter if they so chose.
Price is a commodity that only is an option for a handful of clubs. Sano is a commodity that everyone wants, which offers much more flexibility (and thus potential utility).
12-13-2013, 06:36 PM #85
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Unless the Twins have a great underground pharmaceutical lab, don't expect Sano's power to build into his late 20s. It's starting to look like after the PED ban that players' power curves don't peak and decline - they just decline.
Are Aging Curves Changing? from Fangraphs
12-15-2013, 09:41 AM #86
Id go so far as to say that what isn't close or subject to debate is that in the near future--2014 for sure--Price will be more valuable than Sano in terms of winning MLB games, which is, after all, the goal.Every post is not every other post. - a wise man
12-15-2013, 10:31 AM #87
Apples and pineapples (that is wOBA and wRC+ and not isoP or HRs). And Small Sample Size bias on either size (like how many 19, 20 and 21 year olds and 39, 40 and 41 year olds were in the majors) skews the curve on both edges. I suspect that the rest of it (25-35 or so) where there is a significant sample size the variations are between the standard deviation, so all curves are identical.
Unless they provide sample size (and it is significant on the edges, like p<0.01 or something), you cannot be confident with the conclusion they are reaching.
All it takes is one Trout and one Harper to skew your data that way, if you have an age group size of 2.-----
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B Richard (12-15-2013)
12-15-2013, 12:28 PM #88
I don't expect Sano to come up and dominate that quickly, most guys don't post Myers-esque rookie seasons. But it's not cut-and-dried, either. Sano has a chance to come up and be a valuable player almost immediately if he's healthy.
Price has a huge advantage in being more valuable in 2014 but it's not impossible that both players stay healthy and have similar impacts for their respective teams.
12-15-2013, 12:30 PM #89